2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Alan Luna punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the UTEP 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:49: Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK) — UTEP win probability +9.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:22: Zack Greenlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK) — UTEP win probability +13.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:24: Mike White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +12.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01: Jakairi Moses run for 6 yds to the WKent 29 — WKU win probability +15.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:53: Timeout UTEP, clock 01:53 — WKU win probability +6.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:32WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt82.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:41UTEP 4th & 11 at WKU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.5%−0.224% to convertField goalTheir call19.6%81% to makePunt18.9%−0.8average punt
- Q1 6:41WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 39, tiedClose callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it80.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:40UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.4%−0.521% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q1 1:08WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snapGo for it77.1%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.5%−0.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q2 2:45WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 25, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snapGo for it69.4%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%average punt
- Q2 0:19WKU 4th & 6 at UTEP 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snapGo for it59.3%−1.839% to convertField goalTheir call61.1%64% to makePunt56.3%−4.8average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 46, up 6Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it45.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:43UTEP 4th & 9 at WKU 29, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snapGo for it37.2%−1.131% to convertField goalTheir call38.3%58% to makePunt28.2%−10.1average punt
- Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 37, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it57.9%−4.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q4 14:48UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 14, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it32.1%−5.025% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%average punt
- Q4 13:13WKU 4th & 11 at UTEP 36, up 1Close callPunted · 61.6% before the snapGo for it61.1%−0.827% to convertField goal61.9%42% to makePuntTheir call60.9%−1.0average punt
- Q4 10:25UTEP 4th & 4 at midfield, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 42.4% before the snapGo for it42.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.9%−2.0average punt
- Q4 6:06WKU 4th & 23 at WKU 15, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it46.0%−15.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.3%average punt
- Q4 2:01UTEP 4th & 8 at WKU 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snapGo for it40.0%−15.233% to convertField goalTheir call55.2%70% to makePunt26.5%−28.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 10:14WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick78.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call78.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:49UTEP Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.0%97% to makeGo for two27.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:22UTEP Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.4%97% to makeGo for two40.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:24WKU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.6%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2888% → 86%
UTEPDrive 2MISSED FG9 plays · 34 yds · 4:4614% → 17%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+5
14.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to David Lucero for 5 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
14.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Augie Touris for 5 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-5
14.4%
Zack Greenlee run for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 16 Zack Greenlee fumbled, recovered by UTEP Zack GreenleeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
UTEPDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-10
18.1%
GREENLEE, Zack rush for 9 yards to the UTEP29, out-of-bounds (KEY, Devon), PENALTY UTEP holding (TULEY-TILLMAN,L) 10 yards to the UTEP10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 12
OWN 11
-2
17.4%
Alan Luna punt for 52 yds , Cameron Echols-Luper returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 35 Cameron Echols-Luper fumbled, recovered by WKent Cameron Echols-LuperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
UTEPDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
19.5%
Alan Luna punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nacarius Fant at the UTEP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5281% → 85%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
19.4%
Mike White pass complete to Kylen Towner for 6 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
19.1%
Mike White pass complete to Xavier Lane for 13 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
15.1%
Mike White run for 5 yds for a TD, (Drew Eckels pass to Deon Yelder for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2516% → 28%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to David Lucero for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
16.3%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to David Lucero for 8 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+18
16.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kevin Dove for 3 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
18.4%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Tyler Batson for 10 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
28.1%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 2:0477% → 74%
Q2 2:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+35
26.3%
Jake Collins punt for 38 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 35 yds to the UTEP 40 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Kalon Beverly) to the WKent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD3 plays · 38 yds · 1:2329% → 43%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+31
28.9%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 31 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 1:0361% → 61%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.4%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
37.2%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 5 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
37.9%
Mike White pass complete to D'Andre Ferby for 10 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
36.5%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 21 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
34.2%
Mike White sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+10
38.9%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 10 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
WKUDrive 14TD16 plays · 80 yds · 3:5357% → 71%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
43.1%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 11 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
40.7%
Mike White pass complete to Xavier Lane for 4 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
41.9%
UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sani Buckingham) to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.5%
Mike White pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
39.7%
Mike White pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
41.3%
Mike White pass complete to Cameron Echols-Luper for 11 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+26
37.6%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 26 yds to the UTEP 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
39.4%
WHITE, Mike pass complete to ECHOLS-LUPER, C for 3 yards to the UTEP0, clock 08:18, PENALTY WKU illegal formation 5 yards to the UTEP8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
39.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
40.6%
Mike White pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 9 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15MISSED FG12 plays · 46 yds · 5:4133% → 37%
Q3 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
33.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Kevin Dove for 4 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4365% → 62%
UTEPDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
35.2%
Mike White pass complete to Xavier Lane for 7 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+21
33.3%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for 21 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
30.8%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
32.2%
Mike White pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
39.6%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Erik Brown for 24 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-8
45.0%
DOVE, Kevin rush for 21 yards to the WKU31 (BROWN, Joe), PENALTY UTEP holding (HERNANDEZ, Will) 8 yards to the UTEP40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+10
40.5%
Zack Greenlee pass complete to Warren Redix for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 4
50
0
44.3%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Warren Redix, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT10 plays · -5 yds · 1:3764% → 60%
Q4 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
36.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Xavier Lane) to the WKent 17Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-4
37.4%
Mike White pass complete to Jakairi Moses for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+15
40.7%
UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Dedrick Simpson) to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-3
34.1%
Mike White pass complete to D'Andre Ferby for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-14
37.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jimmie Sims) to the WKent 15Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 23
OWN 15
0
38.1%
Mike White pass incomplete to Deon Yelder, broken up by Michael LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 3:0246% → 50%
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
49.1%
Zack Greenlee pass incomplete to Erik Brown, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22END OF GAME9 plays · 24 yds · 1:0165% → 82%
Q4 1:46
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
28.7%
Mike White pass complete to Deon Yelder for 11 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01
Jakairi Moses run for 6 yds to the WKent 29
-15.5
TD · Q2 1:22
Zack Greenlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK)
+13.4