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UNT

North Texas 43 at Southern Miss 28

USM
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-3.1USM 2.6%Trevor Moore 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 43 - HOME 28 · Q4 4:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:30 · Trevor Moore 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense−43.7Score differential−19.7Garbage-time factor−10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−11.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:42: Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +7.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:08: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +23.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:49: Jeffery Wilson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNT win probability +14.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:00: Ito Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +15.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:29: Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +21.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:40UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17USM 4th & 13 at USM 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:16UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:38UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:37USM 4th & 10 at USM 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:47UNT 4th & 1 at USM 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−2.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 5 at USM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:54USM 4th & 9 at UNT 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:20UNT 4th & 2 at USM 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:42USM 4th & 7 at UNT 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:20UNT 4th & 4 at USM 37, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:01UNT 4th & 3 at USM 3, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:08USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:43UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.5%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24USM 4th & 12 at USM 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:30UNT 4th & 10 at USM 27, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:25USM 4th & 4 at USM 39, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:45UNT 4th & 12 at USM 41, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:38USM 4th & 8 at USM 17, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:44USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:38USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:00USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:42UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:08UNT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:49UNT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00USM Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:29UNT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1675% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
74.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
74.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+45
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 45 yds to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 7 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
75.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
75.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 8 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-5
75.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
75.3%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 40 yds, downed at the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Kishawn McClainSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
75.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
75.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
75.1%
Zac Everett punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
75.3%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 23 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Mason FineSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
75.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-3
75.5%
Mason Fine sacked by Xavier Thigpen and Jacques Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
75.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 44 yds, downed at the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:0176% → 79%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
75.6%
Tez Parks run for 3 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
75.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
50
+33
75.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 33 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
76.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
76.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+9
75.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
78.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
78.2%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
78.3%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
79.5%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 18
OWN 18
0
79.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+8
79.2%
Tez Parks run for 8 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
78.9%
Zac Everett punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:1721% → 26%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
78.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
78.1%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
77.7%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+46
74.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for 46 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4275% → 75%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
75.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
75.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for no gain to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
74.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
74.5%
Zac Everett punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10FUMBLE
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:4425% → 26%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
74.7%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
74.9%
Jeffery Wilson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+1
73.9%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
74.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 16 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
73.5%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+7
73.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+13
73.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 13 yds Rico Bussey Jr. fumbled, forced by Paxton Schrimsher, recovered by SoMis Delmond LandrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:0975% → 82%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
74.9%
Tez Parks run for 4 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
75.0%
Tez Parks run for 1 yd to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
74.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
75.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+65
81.7%
Ito Smith run for 65 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
79.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
79.5%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Jomez Applewhite return for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
82.9%
Tez Parks run for 1 yd to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
82.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Tez Parks, broken up by Colton McDonaldSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
81.7%
Zac Everett punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 5:1119% → 27%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
81.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 3Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+11
81.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 11 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
81.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+41
80.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 41 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
81.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
80.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
81.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+18
81.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Paxton Schrimsher) to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
80.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
80.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 12 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
80.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
78.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 31 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
80.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
79.9%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
79.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
78.4%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:5423% → 31%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.9%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 19Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
77.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+43
77.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Caleb Chumley for 43 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
73.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
74.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Kevin Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+6
75.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 6 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+6
75.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+48
69.3%
Trevor Moore 48 yd FG GOOD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 5:5929% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
69.7%
Evan Johnson run for no gain to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
71.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 3 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
70.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 6 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
68.9%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+18
69.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 18 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
68.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 21 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
67.2%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
67.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffery WilsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+20
69.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 20 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
66.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
65.5%
Trevor Moore 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
68.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for 18 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
71.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+22
71.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 22 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
72.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-5
71.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Ty Pollard) to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 15
OPP 35
-10
69.5%
GRIGGS, Kwadra shovel pass complete to SMITH, Ito for 6 yards to the NT29 (EJIYA, E.J.), PENALTY USM holding (POLLARD, Ty) 10 yards to the NT45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 25
OPP 45
-6
68.9%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Roderick Young for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 31
OWN 49
0
67.1%
Zac Everett punt for 22 yds, downed at the NoTex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5634% → 62%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+53
66.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 53 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
60.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
61.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 10 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
60.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
0
62.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
38.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Ashton PrestonSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.6%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
42.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Jay'Shawn WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
41.2%
Zac Everett punt for 24 yds, downed at the NoTex 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:2563% → 78%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
37.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nic SmithSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
37.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+43
22.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4928% → 49%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.9%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+35
29.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 35 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
33.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+12
33.1%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
33.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the NoTex 13Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+9
33.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 5 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Dee Baulkman) to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for no gain to the NoTex 4Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.5%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3162% → 88%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+14
40.5%
FINE, Mason deep out pass incomplete to BUSSEY, Rico (ARMSTRONG, C.), PENALTY USM personal foul (COLLINS, Trae) 14 yards to the NT39, 1ST DOWN NT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
35.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
34.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
33.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
35.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
50
+44
32.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 44 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
19.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 17 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
21.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
50
0
21.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
50
-2
21.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
19.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
19.1%
Briggs Bourgeois punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:3888% → 97%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
11.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
11.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+17
11.9%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Derrick Dixon) to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
10.7%
Nic Smith run for 20 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
10.4%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+2
10.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+11
5.7%
Mason Fine run for 11 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
5.2%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-2
5.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
5.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Caleb ChumleySimilar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
2.6%
Trevor Moore 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
3.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
3.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
3.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 12 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
3.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
3.8%
Kwadra Griggs run for 6 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
3.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
3.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Dee BaulkmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:3599% → 99%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
1.5%
SMITH, Nic rush left for 2 yards to the USM37 (BOOTHE, R.), PENALTY NT holding (MURRAY, Jordan) 10 yards to the USM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 20
OPP 49
0
1.6%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+2
1.6%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+6
1.2%
Evan Johnson run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
1.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
0.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tez Parks for 7 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-5
1.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Tez Parks) to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
0.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
0.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
0.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:08
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 16 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-23.7
TD · Q4 11:29
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q3 0:00
Ito Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com