Try the model
MRSH

Marshall 38 at Cincinnati 21

CIN
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:55 · James Smith punt for 45 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 5 yds to the Marsh 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−4.9Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.4Pregame prior+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:38: Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:27: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:06: Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 31 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:15: Michael Warren II run for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +11.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 8:33CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:08CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:55MRSH 4th & 5 at CIN 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:55CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:11MRSH 4th & 7 at CIN 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:11CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:38MRSH 4th & 2 at CIN 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:44CIN 4th & 3 at MRSH 9, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−9.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CIN 4th & 3 at MRSH 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−4.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:59MRSH 4th & 6 at CIN 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:29CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:13MRSH 4th & 1 at CIN 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−2.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:46CIN 4th & 19 at midfield, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:42MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:14MRSH 4th & 1 at CIN 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−5.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:09CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 49, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:02MRSH 4th & 12 at MRSH 12, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:01MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:04CIN 4th & 10 at MRSH 16, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:39MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:38MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:27MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:05CIN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:06MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:15CIN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:14MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:03CIN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
61.5%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-3
61.5%
Tyler King run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 31 Tyler King fumbled, forced by Kevin Mouhon, recovered by Cincy Perry YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
61.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-4
61.6%
Hayden Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 34 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by Marsh Frankie HernandezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:0239% → 42%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.4%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
61.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 13 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
61.3%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 7
50
0
61.3%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 7
50
+15
61.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 15 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
61.3%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+3
61.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 3 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+5
61.4%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to BRADY, Tyre (STEPHENS, L.), PENALTY CIN offside (WRIGHT, Bryan) 5 yards to the CIN25, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
61.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 11 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
58.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 14 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
58.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
58.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
58.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 10
OWN 17
-6
58.4%
James Smith punt for 44 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
58.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 4 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
58.1%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
58.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Carter JacobsSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
58.6%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.3%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
58.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 15 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
58.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Chase HancockSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
58.5%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 11
OWN 40
-2
57.9%
James Smith punt for 40 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7FG
16 plays · 73 yds · 7:3643% → 48%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
57.3%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-1
57.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 18Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+12
57.7%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie (STEPHENS, L.), PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 12 yards to the MAR30, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
57.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 7 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
56.8%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
56.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 4 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
56.7%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 41Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+34
57.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Marcel Williams for 34 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
56.3%
Chase Litton run for 5 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-2
56.3%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
53.2%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 8 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
52.8%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
52.9%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+6
53.3%
Chase Litton pass complete to Keion Davis for 6 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
51.9%
Kaare Vedvik 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
50.9%
Hayden Moore run for 8 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-15
51.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
50.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 11 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
50.0%
James Smith punt for 45 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1849% → 54%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyler KingSimilar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
51.5%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+12
51.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyre Brady for 12 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
50.4%
Tyler King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+10
50.6%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 10 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
50.5%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
50.3%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to BRADY, Tyre (PIERCE, Davin), QB hurry by MINOR, Jaylyin, PENALTY CIN pass interference (PIERCE, Davin) 15 yards to the CIN28, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
50.1%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
50.2%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
50.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+42
46.3%
Kaare Vedvik 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Brandon DraytonSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.0%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
45.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
44.7%
James Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:4155% → 74%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
45.4%
Tyler King run for 5 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
45.0%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 3 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
45.1%
Chase Litton pass complete to Tyler King for 3 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
44.6%
Tyler King run for 10 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.4%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan Yurachek, broken up by Carter JacobsSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
44.5%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+10
44.9%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to BRADY, Tyre (STEPHENS, L.), PENALTY CIN holding (PIERCE, Davin) 10 yards to the CIN35, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
44.3%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
44.3%
Tyler King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+10
42.8%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 10 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+27
26.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
18.7%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 0:4324% → 25%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
23.5%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
25.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 42 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
28.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler Cogswell, broken up by Brandon DraytonSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
28.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 7 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
25.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
25.4%
Josh Pasley 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
19.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5520% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
20.2%
Mike Boone run for 11 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (Chase Hancock) to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
22.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
22.3%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+2
22.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+5
22.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
22.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+7
23.9%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
23.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+11
23.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 11 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
23.3%
Hayden Moore run for 3 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
24.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Marsh 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
24.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
24.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Marsh 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the Marsh 2Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
19.6%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
19.5%
Tyler King run for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
19.7%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
20.9%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 47 yds, downed at the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
20.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+2
20.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 2 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
19.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Jaylon McClain-SappSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+4
19.9%
James Smith punt for 45 yds , Hyleck Foster returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
16.5%
Keion Davis run for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
15.9%
DAVIS, Keion rush for 10 yards to the CIN27 (YOUNG, Perry;MINOR, Jaylyin), PENALTY MAR illegal block off-setting, PENALTY CIN face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
16.5%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
16.5%
Keion Davis run for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
16.1%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
17.6%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+31
17.7%
Gerrid Doaks run for 31 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
19.9%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
20.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-15
20.3%
MOORE, Hayden pass complete to GEDDIS, Thomas for 15 yards to the MAR20 (REAVIS, C.J.;JOHNSON, Nazeeh), PENALTY CIN pass interference (MEDARIS, Rashad) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 19
50
0
18.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 19
50
0
18.1%
James Smith punt for 32 yds, downed at the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
14.1%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
14.1%
Tyler King run for no gain to the Marsh 20Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
14.6%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 8
OWN 20
-13
15.0%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 36 yds , TEAM returns for a loss of 13 yards to the Cincy 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Marsh D'Andre WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
3.4%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 31 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 1:455% → 16%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
4.9%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+15
5.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Jaylon McClain-Sapp for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (C.J. Reavis) to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Michael Warren II, broken up by Chase HancockSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
5.1%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
4.6%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to PINCKNEY, JJ, PENALTY MAR pass interference (ALLEN, Rodney) 15 yards to the MAR38, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
4.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+11
4.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 11 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
16.4%
Michael Warren II run for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5691% → 99%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.4%
Keion Davis run for 4 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
9.5%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
9.7%
LITTON, Chase pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Willie (COLEMAN, Grant), PENALTY CIN pass interference (COLEMAN, Grant) 6 yards to the MAR37, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
9.2%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+18
8.9%
Keion Davis run for 18 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+36
8.7%
Keion Davis run for 36 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
5.1%
Chase Litton run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 8 Chase Litton fumbled, recovered by Marsh Chase LittonSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
5.1%
Keion Davis run for 7 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.2%
Chase Litton pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.3%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
2.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Javan HawesSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
2.3%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler CogswellSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+15
2.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 15 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
2.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Javan Hawes for 13 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
2.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Taylor Boose for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
2.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Javan HawesSimilar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
2.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Javan HawesSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
2.5%
James Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hyleck Foster at the Marsh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
1.1%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 15Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-6
1.2%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the Marsh 19 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (Hyleck Foster) to the Marsh 9Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
1.2%
Tyler King run for no gain to the Marsh 9Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+3
1.2%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 12
OWN 12
+15
0.8%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 54 yds , Devin Gray returns for 15 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:491% → 4%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
1.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Javan Hawes for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
1.3%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
1.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
1.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 9 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
1.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jerron Rollins for 7 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
3.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Javan Hawes for 18 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
1.4%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
1.4%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-3
1.3%
Anthony Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+2
1.3%
Kaare Vedvik punt for 43 yds , Devin Gray returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:492% → 1%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
2.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 9 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
2.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Taylor Boose for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+21
2.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 21 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
2.5%
Jaelen Greene run for 1 yd to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jaquan Yulee) to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
2.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Javan HawesSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
2.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
2.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Jaelen Greene for no gain to the Marsh 16Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 10
OPP 16
0
1.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Javan Hawes, broken up by Jestin MorrowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:38
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 1:06
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 31 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q4 14:15
Michael Warren II run for 27 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com