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USA

South Alabama 16 at Louisiana Tech 34

LT
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:04 · Brady Farlow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the LaTch 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:18: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +2.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Gavin Patterson 41 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +3.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:17: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 30 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +17.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:18: Jonathan Barnes 29 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +3.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:17: Boston Scott run for 27 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 20 at USA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:22LT 4th & 4 at USA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:17USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55LT 4th & 5 at USA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55LT 4th & 3 at LT 20, up 10
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:48USA 4th & 5 at LT 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:48LT 4th & 1 at LT 30, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:06USA 4th & 2 at LT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:46LT 4th & 10 at USA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:20USA 4th & 10 at LT 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:20LT 4th & 26 at LT 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−6.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:56USA 4th & 26 at USA 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−6.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:04LT 4th & 20 at LT 2, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−9.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 8 at LT 42, down 1
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−1.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:17USA 4th & 6 at midfield, down 8
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:18LT 4th & 6 at USA 12, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:18USA 4th & 3 at USA 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:17USA 4th & 7 at USA 39, down 18
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:20USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:17LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:18LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:17LT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:17LT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.5%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.5%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
75.5%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
75.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
75.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 1 yd to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+18
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 18 yds to the LATECH 44 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 4 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
75.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:22
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+12
75.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 12 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
75.4%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 14:22
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+17
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 17 yds Marlon Watts fumbled, forced by Tobias Moss, recovered by SAlab Malcolm BuggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:3126% → 28%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
74.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+47
74.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 47 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
72.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 29 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:0373% → 74%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
72.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 18 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
73.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 2 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
73.1%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to CRAFT, Jarred, PENALTY USA offside defense 5 yards to the USA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
73.2%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
74.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 40 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
73.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 11 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
73.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
73.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 29 yds, downed at the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:2974% → 77%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
73.6%
Boston Scott run for 18 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
74.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 21 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
74.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 13 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
77.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 10 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
76.0%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+13
76.1%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 13 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.8%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Secdrick Cooper return for no gain to the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:0777% → 77%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
77.0%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+14
76.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 14 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
77.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
77.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to DeJuawn Oliver for 12 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
77.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to George Scott for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+9
77.2%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
77.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to DeJuawn OliverSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
77.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to George Scott, broken up by Darian MillsSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+5
76.9%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to HARDY, Adrian, PENALTY USA offside defense (Turner, Tyree) 5 yards to the USA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
76.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
77.0%
Jonathan Barnes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9INT
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.0%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
77.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
76.5%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
76.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam Harris, broken up by Keonatye GarnerSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+13
76.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 13 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
76.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 19 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
75.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
75.6%
Xavier Johnson run for 17 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
75.4%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Secdrick Cooper return for 1 yd to the LaTch 9 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Secdrick Cooper) to the LaTch 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+12
76.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the LaTch 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
76.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
76.8%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-5
76.4%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Teddy Veal) to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 8
+12
76.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
76.1%
Davan Dyer punt for 52 yds, downed at the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:4522% → 24%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
77.8%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
77.8%
Tra Minter run for 7 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+9
77.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
77.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+12
76.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 12 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
76.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 27 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
75.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 5 yds to the LaTch 9Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
75.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
76.5%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
75.6%
Gavin Patterson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
77.4%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+4
77.4%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
77.5%
J'Mar Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
77.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marlon Watts, broken up by Malcolm BuggsSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
76.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 9 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
76.5%
Davan Dyer punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FG
14 plays · 31 yds · 2:4725% → 29%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
75.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
74.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
76.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 5 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
75.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
73.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
75.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
74.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Malik Stanley for 8 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-1
74.3%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+41
71.5%
Gavin Patterson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1472% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
72.3%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+3
73.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 3 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
72.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
72.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 8 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+16
73.2%
Boston Scott run for 16 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
74.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 19 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
75.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
75.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
74.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
73.9%
Jonathan Barnes 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:2628% → 32%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
72.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
71.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+9
72.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 9 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
71.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 4 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
69.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 16 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
69.2%
Cole Garvin run for 4 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
68.9%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the LaTch 35Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
69.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.9%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the LaTch 29Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
68.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Xavier Johnson, broken up by DaMarion KingSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
69.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
67.6%
Gavin Patterson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
69.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to George ScottSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-8
68.5%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Jimmie Gipson for a loss of 8 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 18
OWN 20
-8
66.9%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Tyree Turner and Finesse Middleton for a loss of 8 yards to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 26
OWN 12
0
66.2%
Brady Farlow punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:4437% → 31%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
63.0%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
62.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-7
63.9%
Cole Garvin sacked by Matthew Ydarraga for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 43 Cole Garvin fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 26
OWN 43
0
69.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
68.9%
SCOTT, Boston rush for 13 yards to the LATECH25 (Reaves, Jeremy), PENALTY LATECH illegal block (STALLWORTH, G.) 6 yards to the LATECH6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 16
OWN 6
0
68.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 16
OWN 6
-4
68.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Chris Henderson for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 20
OWN 2
0
66.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 20
OWN 2
0
66.2%
Brady Farlow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the LaTch 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2938% → 34%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
62.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+7
64.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 7 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
62.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by Keonatye GarnerSimilar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
62.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+5
66.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 37 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 5 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:3469% → 91%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
68.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 7 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+5
68.8%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
69.0%
J'Mar Smith run for 9 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
71.2%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
69.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 26 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
73.1%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+30
90.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 30 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
85.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 17 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.6%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
82.9%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 6
50
0
83.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Secdrick CooperSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 6
50
0
85.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:4989% → 95%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
89.4%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 11Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+11
89.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 11 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.6%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+9
89.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 9 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
89.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 9 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+19
90.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 19 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
91.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 7 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
91.5%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
91.5%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the SAlab 12Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
90.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to George ScottSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
94.6%
Jonathan Barnes 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
94.4%
Cole Garvin run for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
93.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
93.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Malik Stanley, broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
94.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.0%
Boston Scott run for 27 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 3 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
98.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sa'Mory CollierSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Corliss Waitman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.9%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
98.9%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
99.0%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:17
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 30 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q4 3:17
Boston Scott run for 27 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+4.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Gavin Patterson 41 yd FG GOOD
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com