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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 20 at Florida Atlantic 38

FAU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:08 · John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ Windham
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Home team on offense+28.7Pregame prior+0.4Score differential+12.1Garbage-time factor+8.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.7Time remaining+2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:53: Devin Singletary run for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +4.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:37: Greg Joseph 22 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +4.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:42: John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 26 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Devin Singletary run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +12.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:13: John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 8:58MTSU 4th & 2 at FAU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:37MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:59MTSU 4th & 4 at FAU 18, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:10MTSU 4th & 9 at FAU 9, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:37FAU 4th & 5 at MTSU 5, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:42FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 37, up 18
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 1 at MTSU 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−2.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.9%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:42FAU 4th & 1 at MTSU 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.5%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:45MTSU 4th & 21 at FAU 38, down 11
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:14FAU 4th & 1 at MTSU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−2.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:14FAU 4th & 1 at MTSU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−1.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−6.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:13FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:00MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:08MTSU 4th & 1 at FAU 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:16FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:53FAU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:42MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55FAU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:13MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:00FAU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4461% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.3%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
61.3%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
61.3%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.3%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+18
61.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
61.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Raine for 12 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
61.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+19
62.6%
Devin Singletary run for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:1838% → 38%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.2%
Brad Anderson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
62.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 21 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
61.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
61.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Tyrese JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
61.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 4 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
61.9%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
61.8%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
61.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Jalen YoungSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
61.7%
Canon Rooker 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kamrin SolomonSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
61.2%
Ryan Rickel punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.0%
Ty Lee run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
61.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 15 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
61.5%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
50
-1
61.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
61.5%
John Urzua pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+21
62.0%
John Urzua punt for 29 yds , Jalen Young returns for 21 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:0963% → 67%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
62.9%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
63.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Raine for 5 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
63.1%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
63.2%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
63.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+8
63.0%
Jason Driskel run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
63.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
63.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
67.4%
Devin Singletary run for 13 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:5434% → 34%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
66.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 51 yds to the FLAATLANTC 24 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
64.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
64.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+1
65.2%
Jocquez Bruce run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
66.1%
Canon Rooker 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:4131% → 27%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
69.3%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
50
+1
68.5%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
68.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+13
69.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 13 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
68.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 26 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
67.6%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
67.6%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.5%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Zyon GilbertSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
73.2%
Canon Rooker 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3375% → 81%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
75.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
75.4%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete, QB hurry by MANCIEL, Malik, PENALTY MT substitution infraction 5 yards to the FAU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+6
75.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
76.3%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-5
76.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Reggie Bain) to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
76.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 18 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
76.4%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
76.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
76.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 20 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
76.5%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
76.5%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
76.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 4 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
80.6%
Greg Joseph 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.7%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
81.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 10 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
80.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
79.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Patrick Smith for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
80.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
80.0%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 9 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
79.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
79.8%
John Urzua pass intercepted Jalen Young return for no gain to the FlAtl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3083% → 82%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
83.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-2
83.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
82.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 9 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
82.1%
Ryan Rickel punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0874% → 78%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST down to John Franklin III for 16 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
73.8%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
75.0%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
75.1%
N/A run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
75.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
74.7%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+13
74.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 13 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
77.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 5 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
77.1%
Jason Driskel run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.6%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
84.5%
Brad Anderson run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
83.8%
John Urzua pass intercepted Shelton Lewis return for no gain to the FlAtl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:1285% → 87%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
85.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+7
86.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+56
87.4%
Greg Joseph 56 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Darryl RandolphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1815% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
84.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
85.3%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 9 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
84.3%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
84.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyshawn Brown for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
84.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 4 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
84.3%
Tavares Thomas run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
83.7%
Jocquez Bruce run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-11
83.6%
John Urzua sacked by Hunter Snyder for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+32
85.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 32 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
82.3%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
75.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 26 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
81.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
81.2%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
80.3%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-2
79.5%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
77.0%
John Urzua run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
76.5%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.0%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+10
77.0%
URZUA, John pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Brad, PENALTY FAU holding (HAFIZ, Quran) 10 yards to the FAU27, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
75.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for no gain to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
76.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Lucas Hamilton) to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-9
77.0%
John Urzua sacked by Hunter Snyder and Korel Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 24
OPP 41
+3
78.9%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 21
OPP 38
0
80.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Kamrin Solomon at the FlAtl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 5:1982% → 96%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+40
82.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 40 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
83.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 11
50
+5
83.5%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
82.9%
Jason Driskel run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+4
81.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
83.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 3 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
83.7%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
83.1%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
82.1%
Jason Driskel run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+12
83.7%
Devin Singletary run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.6%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Dominic MilaneseSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
82.9%
DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to BRYANT, Harriso, PENALTY MT pass interference (MOFFATT, J.) 7 yards to the MT2, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for no gain to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 3:426% → 17%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
94.5%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
94.6%
Ty Lee run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+7
94.5%
URZUA, John pass incomplete to BRUCE, Jocquez, PENALTY FAU pass interference (AL-SHAAIR, Azee) 7 yards to the MT28, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
94.2%
Patrick Smith pass complete to John Urzua for 26 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
94.0%
Jocquez Bruce run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+24
94.0%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 24 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
93.2%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
93.2%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+12
93.6%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 12 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
88.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
87.5%
Devin Singletary run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
88.9%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-3
88.8%
Jason Driskel run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
87.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
86.9%
Ryan Rickel punt for 46 yds , Ty Lee returns for no gain to the MTnSt 13 Ty Lee fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Wesley BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+26
90.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 26 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
89.0%
John Urzua pass intercepted Richard Williams return for no gain to the MTnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1192% → 99%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
91.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
91.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
91.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+9
91.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 9 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
91.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 4 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 2:522% → 2%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Ty Lee run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
98.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 10 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
98.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 7 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
97.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 2 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
97.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
50
0
97.9%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Brad Anderson, broken up by Hunter SnyderSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
50
+8
97.9%
John Urzua run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
98.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Watkins for 1 yd to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
98.4%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
99.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q4 11:13
John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 9:42
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 26 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com