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UTSA

UTSA 44 at Texas State 14

TXST
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFUMBLETDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:10 · Marcus Ripley punt for 49 yds , Kirk Johnson returns for no gain to the TexSA 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior−7.7Home team on offense−42.6Score differential−23.7Garbage-time factor−14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:27: Damian Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +3.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 8:21: Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK) — TXST win probability +9.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:05: Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +5.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Jared Sackett 43 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +3.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:17: Jalen Rhodes run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 9:53UTSA 4th & 4 at TXST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:07UTSA 4th & 6 at TXST 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:28TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:06TXST 4th & 10 at UTSA 37, down 10
    Close callPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 13 at TXST 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00TXST 4th & 15 at UTSA 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:00UTSA 4th & 4 at TXST 10, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:00TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 17, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:26UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 27 at UTSA 37, down 16
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:10TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 28, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:37TXST 4th & 9 at UTSA 29, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:15TXST 4th & 7 at UTSA 43, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:27TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:33UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:21TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:05UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:17UTSA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:20UTSA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 5:0784% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
15.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
15.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+7
15.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
15.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+18
15.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 18 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
15.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+17
15.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 17 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
15.7%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
15.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
17.8%
Jared Sackett 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:1418% → 17%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
18.0%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Devron DavisSimilar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+22
17.2%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards Team fumbled, forced by Eric Banks, recovered by TexSA Josiah Tauaefa , return for 22 yds, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:0017% → 21%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
17.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 6Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-4
17.1%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 14
OWN 2
+30
17.0%
Damian Williams run for 30 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
17.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 26 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
17.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+33
17.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah King for 18 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal use of hands (Eric Banks) to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
17.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+14
17.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Mason Hays for 14 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.7%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:1580% → 79%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
20.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 8 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
19.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
19.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
20.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+5
20.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
21.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Anthony J. Taylor, broken up by Marcus DavenportSimilar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
21.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Robert Brown Jr.Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
21.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 74 yds, downed at the TexSA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 3:5877% → 81%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
22.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+9
22.6%
Tyrell Clay run for 9 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
22.2%
Tyrell Clay run for 7 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+5
22.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
22.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSA 28 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Pratt) to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+15
22.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 15 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
21.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+67
19.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 67 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1219% → 29%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
18.7%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+40
18.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 40 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
19.8%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Austin JupeSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
19.7%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+15
19.5%
Williams, Damian sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UTSA46 (Josiah Tauaefa), PENALTY UTSA illegal participation (Marcus Davenport) 15 yards to the UTSA22, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
20.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah King, broken up by Josiah TauaefaSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-2
20.4%
Anthony Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+15
19.4%
Williams, Damian sideline pass incomplete to King,Elijah, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Devron Davis) 15 yards to the UTSA9, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
28.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:1675% → 82%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
24.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 7 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
24.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
50
0
23.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
50
+6
23.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for 6 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+18
24.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nikolas Daniels) to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
23.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
23.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
23.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Gavin Graham for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 20 Dalton Sturm fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+15
23.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor, Anthony J.) 15 yards to the TXST5, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.4%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 0:5120% → 20%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
19.8%
Anthony J. Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+1
19.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Elijah Rogers for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+20
19.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Anthony J. Taylor for 20 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
21.5%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 7 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
21.7%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
21.6%
Damian Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
21.6%
Damian Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
21.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus DavenportSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
21.1%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler Watts, broken up by Darryl GodfreySimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
20.2%
Marcus Ripley punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 1:1481% → 87%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+40
19.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 40 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
17.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 17 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
17.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Reed Darragh) to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
16.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+2
16.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 13
OPP 26
0
16.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for no gain to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+43
13.4%
Jared Sackett 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.7%
Anthony J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
16.6%
Williams, Damian sacked for loss of 4 yards to the TXST22 (Josiah Tauaefa), PENALTY UTSA illegal use of hands (Eric Banks) 15 yards to the TXST41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
17.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Elijah KingSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
17.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Schrade for 16 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
18.0%
Anthony J. Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 48
0
17.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
16.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Robert Brown Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
16.3%
Marcus Ripley punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexSA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
15 plays · 89 yds · 6:4386% → 91%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
14.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
14.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+15
14.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 15 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
14.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 13 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
14.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
14.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 10 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
13.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+17
13.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 17 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
13.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+16
13.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 16 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
13.0%
Tyrell Clay run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
13.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+3
10.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
9.4%
Jared Sackett 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.4%
Dennis Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
10.2%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
10.1%
Damian Williams sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+1
10.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 45 yds , Brady Jones returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 18 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal block (Brenndan Johnson) to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
8.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+6
8.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 6 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
8.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Dannon CavilSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
9.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4710% → 10%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
9.8%
Anthony Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
9.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Hutch White for 12 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
10.6%
Anthony Smith run for 15 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
11.1%
Anthony Smith run for 7 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+15
11.6%
Williams, Damian deep out pass incomplete to King,Elijah, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Austin Jupe) 15 yards to the UTSA20, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
11.6%
Damian Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-15
10.7%
Team run for a loss of 15 yards to the TexSA 37 Team fumbled, recovered by TexSt Damian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 27
OPP 37
0
9.7%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Eric LunaSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 27
OPP 37
0
9.5%
Marcus Ripley punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:5494% → 99%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
6.5%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jordan Mittie and Dean Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+35
6.7%
Dalton Sturm run for 35 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
5.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
5.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
5.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Tyrell Clay for 5 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
1.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
1.5%
Brendon Rushing run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
1.5%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Tyler WattsSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
1.5%
Marcus Ripley punt for 49 yds , Kirk Johnson returns for no gain to the TexSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
1.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
1.3%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+18
1.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 18 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
1.2%
B.J. Daniels run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
1.2%
B.J. Daniels run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-7
1.2%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 40 Dalton Sturm fumbled, recovered by TexSt Caeveon PattonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
0.9%
Willie Jones III pass complete to Dennis Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
1.0%
Jones |||, Willie sideline pass incomplete to Rogers,Elijah, PENALTY UTSA offside (Jim Philistin) 5 yards to the UTSA30, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Willie Jones III run for no gain to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
1.0%
Willie Jones III run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+4
1.0%
Willie Jones III run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 9
OPP 29
0
0.9%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Quinn TiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
0.1%
Brett Winnegan run for 71 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Jaylin Nelson run for no gain to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
0.1%
Jaylin Nelson run for 14 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
0.1%
Jaylin Nelson run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
0.1%
Willie Jones III run for 2 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Willie Jones III pass incomplete to Elijah RogersSimilar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Marcus Ripley punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexSA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
0.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 5
-1
0.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 13
OWN 4
-1
0.1%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:21
Damian Williams pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds for a TD, (James Sherman KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 4:05
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q4 11:17
Jalen Rhodes run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com