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UTEP

UTEP 14 at New Mexico State 41

NMSU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:57 · Alan Luna punt for 31 yds, downed at the NEWMEXST 39 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Leon McQuaker) to the NMxSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+15.6Home team on offense+31.4Score differential+29.3Garbage-time factor+8.8Blowout margin+14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:48: Ryan Metz run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK) — UTEP win probability +2.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:02: Larry Rose III run for 28 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:37: Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Shamad Lomax return for 19 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:37: NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the UTEP 3 — NMSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:57: Conner Cramer 10 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Dylan Brown PAT failed) — NMSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:06UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:48NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 5 at NMSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:58UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:56NMSU 4th & 13 at UTEP 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:19NMSU 4th & 12 at UTEP 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:35UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 19, down 21
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35UTEP 4th & 22 at UTEP 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:57UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:46NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 23, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:15UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 48, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 28, up 27
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:37NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 19, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:01UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 44, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:01UTEP 4th & 12 at NMSU 26, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:45NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:02NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:37NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:57NMSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:35NMSU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for no gain to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
90.3%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
90.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 50 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 5 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0810% → 10%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.8%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Keynan Foster for 3 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+3
89.8%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
89.8%
Alan Luna punt for 53 yds, downed at the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:0089% → 90%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for no gain to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+29
89.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 29 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Justin Rogers return for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
89.0%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
89.0%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
89.1%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted Shamad Lomax return for no gain to the UTEP 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
89.8%
Larry Rose III run for 40 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD
17 plays · 81 yds · 6:5211% → 14%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
89.5%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 11 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
89.4%
Quadraiz Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
89.5%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+10
89.6%
METZ, Ryan pass incomplete to WADLEY, Q., PENALTY NMSU holding (Harrington, D.) 10 yards to the UTEP39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
89.3%
Kevin Dove run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
89.4%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
89.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+6
89.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Josh Weeks for 6 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
89.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-5
89.2%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+6
88.5%
Ryan Metz run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
88.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to David Lucero for 11 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
88.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+12
88.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.6%
Ryan Metz run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xander Yarberough for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Xander Yarberough, broken up by Michael LewisSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
86.2%
Peyton Theisler punt for 44 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 7 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5414% → 15%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
85.8%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 7 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+6
85.3%
Ryan Metz run for 6 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
85.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for no gain to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
84.5%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
84.9%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Quadraiz WadleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+10
85.1%
METZ, Ryan pass incomplete to JUNIEL,Terry, PENALTY NMSU holding (Wright, Jaden) 10 yards to the NMSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
84.4%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
84.9%
Alan Luna punt for 45 yds, downed at the NMxSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 97 yds · 5:2386% → 88%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
85.5%
Larry Rose III run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
85.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Bryce Roberts for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
85.6%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+13
85.3%
Larry Rose III run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
85.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+11
85.5%
Jason Huntley run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Josh Aganon, broken up by Kalon BeverlySimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
86.0%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-13
86.3%
Rose III, Larry rush for 4 yards to the UTEP42 (ROGERS, Justin;SOTA, Mike), PENALTY NMSU personal foul (Muse, Anthony) 13 yards to the NMSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 14
OWN 41
+15
85.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 15 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
86.4%
Jason Huntley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
86.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+14
86.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 14 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
88.4%
Larry Rose III run for 28 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.3%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
87.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-5
87.5%
Ryan Metz sacked by Terrill Hanks and Lui Fa'amasino for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 21Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
87.9%
Alan Luna punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
87.8%
Rogers, Tyler rush for 8 yards to the NMSU44, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NMSU illegal block (Smith, Jamin) 10 yards to the NMSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+4
87.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+9
87.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 9 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-2
87.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 42 yds , Terry Juniel returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
87.0%
Quadraiz Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 11
OWN 16
-2
87.2%
Quadraiz Wadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
87.5%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
87.8%
Alan Luna punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
87.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 4 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
87.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by Dante LovilotteSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+26
87.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 26 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
88.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jason HuntleySimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
88.2%
Jason Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
87.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 13
OPP 34
0
86.5%
Peyton Theisler punt for 31 yds, downed at the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14INT TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2813% → 8%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
86.8%
Kevin Dove run for 3 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
86.4%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+19
91.6%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Shamad Lomax return for 19 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
95.7%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Tyler Batson for 8 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
95.5%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 8 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.4%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+18
95.6%
Ryan Metz pass complete to David Lucero for 18 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.9%
Ryan Metz pass intercepted Shamad Lomax return for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
95.7%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
95.5%
Keynan Foster run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
95.6%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Sterling Napier) to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+4
95.9%
Mark Torrez pass intercepted Terrill Hanks return for 4 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
97.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
97.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
96.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
96.6%
Peyton Theisler punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
96.4%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+3
96.4%
TORREZ, Mark pass incomplete to BATSON, Tyler (Lomax, Shamad), PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Lomax, Shamad) 3 yards to the UTEP12, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
96.3%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 9 yds to the UTEP 21Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
96.1%
Mark Torrez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 1
OWN 21
-2
96.3%
Kevin Dove run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+5
96.4%
Alan Luna punt for 46 yds , Larry Rose III returns for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:4497% → 98%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-14
97.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-14 Yards) to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaden Wright for no gain to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
97.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+31
97.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaden Wright for 31 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 7 yds to the UTEP 36Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+14
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 14 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
97.4%
Larry Rose III run for 17 yds to the UTEP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
97.4%
UTEP Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nik Needham) to the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Larry Rose III 2 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Dylan Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Quadraiz Wadley run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Quadraiz Wadley run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-14
97.2%
UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Logan Tuley-Tillman) to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
97.2%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
97.2%
Alan Luna punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2898% → 100%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
97.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 11 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.7%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
97.7%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Scott, Jaleel (BEVERLY, Kalon), PENALTY UTEP pass interference (BEVERLY, Kalon) 15 yards to the UTEP34, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
97.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 22 yds to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
97.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 1 yd to the UTEP 11Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+1
97.7%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the UTEP 10Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Conner Cramer 10 Yd pass from Tyler Rogers (Dylan Brown PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Tyler BatsonSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Kevin Dove run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.7%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+46
99.7%
Alan Luna punt for 31 yds, downed at the NEWMEXST 39 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Leon McQuaker) to the NMxSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose IIISimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 1 yd to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
99.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.8%
Mark Torrez run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Mark Torrez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-3
99.8%
Mark Torrez sacked by Malik Demby for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Alan Luna punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Larry Rose III at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+19
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 19 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 32 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+24
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 24 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+20
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Tyler Batson for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Tyler BatsonSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
50
0
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to David Lucero, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 10
50
0
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass intercepted Ron LaForce return for no gain to the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-8
99.9%
Rose III, Larry rush for 7 yards to the NMSU27 (GRIFFIN, Kalaii;NEEDHAM, Nik), PENALTY NMSU illegal block 8 yards to the NMSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+3
99.9%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.9%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30DOWNS
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Joshua Fields run for 2 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 6 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Mark Torrez run for 1 yd to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Mark Torrez run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Terry Juniel for 3 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Mark Torrez run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
99.9%
Mark Torrez run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
99.9%
UTEP Penalty, false start (David Lucero) to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+9
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass complete to Eddie Sinegal for 9 yds to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-5
99.9%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Logan Tuley-Tillman) to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-1
99.9%
Mark Torrez sacked by Dalton Herrington for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 12
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Mark Torrez pass incomplete to Tyler BatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Christian Gibson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+26
100.0%
Christian Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards Christian Gibson fumbled, forced by Johnny Jones, recovered by UTEP Trace Mascorro , return for 26 yds, (Brady Viles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+13
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 13 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:37
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the UTEP 3
+5.7
TD · Q2 1:37
Ryan Metz pass intercepted for a TD Shamad Lomax return for 19 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q1 2:48
Ryan Metz run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brady Viles KICK)
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com