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UAB

UAB 43 at North Texas 46

UNT
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+5.3UNT 96.2%Trevor Moore 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 29 - HOME 43 · Q4 7:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:43 · Trevor Moore 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+3.3Home team on offense+25.6Garbage-time factor+12.1Score differential+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.2Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:44: Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 40 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +8.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:56: Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +8.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:51: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +9.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:27: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +41.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:07: Trevor Moore 22 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +27.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:19UNT 4th & 12 at UAB 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:19UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:17UAB 4th & 16 at UAB 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:09UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 46, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.0%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:56UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 34, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:20UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 36, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:12UNT 4th & 1 at UAB 23, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%−2.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−11.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:12UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:00UAB 4th & 13 at UAB 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:43UNT 4th & 7 at UAB 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:31UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:06UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:41UNT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:17UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:03UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:25UAB Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:44UNT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:45UAB Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:56UNT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:30UAB Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:51UAB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:27UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:5425% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
74.6%
James Noble III run for 5 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-2
74.6%
James Noble III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+12
74.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 12 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
74.6%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+5
74.6%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+14
74.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 14 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
74.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 3 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+22
74.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 22 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
74.6%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the NoTex 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+9
74.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 9 yds to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 2 yds to the NoTex 1Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.9%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 5:4772% → 70%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
71.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Caleb Chumley for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
71.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
71.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 23 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
71.7%
Mason Fine run for 12 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+16
72.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 16 yds to the UAB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
72.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
72.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 9 yds to the UAB 2Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
71.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the UAB 1Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-11
72.1%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 11 yards to the UAB 12Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
71.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Shaq JonesSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
70.4%
Trevor Moore 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
70.6%
Lucious Stanley run for 4 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-13
70.3%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Andy Flusche for a loss of 13 yards to the UAB 11Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+5
70.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 5 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+12
71.1%
Joel Dixon punt for 54 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 12 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:4271% → 74%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
70.6%
Mason Fine run for 11 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
74.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 47 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4127% → 27%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
72.9%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
73.0%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
73.1%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted Kishawn McClain return for no gain to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 3:3773% → 79%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
73.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the UAB 37 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Mar'Sean Diggs) to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
73.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
73.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+17
73.7%
Jeffery Wilson run for 17 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
74.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
74.3%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+25
73.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 25 yds to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q2 12:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
74.0%
UAB Penalty, Defensive pass interference (2 Yards) to the UAB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the UAB 2Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Logan ScottSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.2%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
79.2%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 10 yards to the UAB 19Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
79.8%
Joel Dixon punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
79.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 7 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+18
79.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Quindarius Thagard) to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
79.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
79.3%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+4
78.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 4 yds Jeffery Wilson fumbled, forced by Tevin Crews, recovered by UAB Darious WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.0%
Carlos Stephens run for 1 yd to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
80.0%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Sederian Copeland, broken up by Ashton PrestonSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
80.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 9
OWN 21
-5
80.7%
UAB Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UAB 16Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
80.7%
Joel Dixon punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2780% → 88%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
80.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-1
80.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
79.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
80.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 6 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+3
80.8%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
80.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
88.3%
Nic Smith run for 29 yds for a TD, (TEAM PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3815% → 21%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.4%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 26Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
85.4%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+21
85.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 21 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
78.9%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 1:4180% → 90%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+32
80.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for 32 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
81.0%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+22
81.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
89.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 40 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 12 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
87.2%
Mason Fine sacked by Stacy Keely for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+15
87.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 15 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
87.0%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-1
86.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:5815% → 22%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
85.1%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+20
85.0%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 20 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
83.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 7 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
83.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
84.4%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
83.6%
A.J. Erdely run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 12Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
84.2%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.8%
Lucious Stanley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4982% → 92%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 12 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
82.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 34 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
83.7%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+22
92.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 22 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
88.1%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Joshua Wheeler for a loss of 10 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+6
89.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 6 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
89.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Carlos StephensSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Joel Dixon punt for 34 yds, downed at the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
92.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
92.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
92.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 51 yds, downed at the UAB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:559% → 17%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
90.9%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
90.9%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Logan ScottSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+17
91.0%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 17 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
90.1%
James Noble III run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
90.9%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+10
91.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Kishawn McClain) to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
82.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 58 yds for a TD, (A.J. Erdely pass to Logan Scott for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1886% → 90%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
86.2%
Mason Fine run for 11 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+19
86.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 19 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
87.4%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
87.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+12
88.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 12 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+40
89.8%
Trevor Moore 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.9%
UAB Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Rishard Cook) to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
89.1%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 20Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
89.2%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
89.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Joel Dixon punt blocked by Taylor Robinson blocked by Taylor RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
91.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the UAB 14 Jeffery Wilson fumbled, forced by Shaq Jones, recovered by UAB Thomas JohnstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
89.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Eric JenkinsSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+2
89.7%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
90.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Ronnie Turner Jr.Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 8
OWN 16
-5
90.4%
UAB Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UAB 11Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
90.4%
Joel Dixon punt for 38 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for no gain to the NoTex 11 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Connor Howard) to the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 4:1391% → 96%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
91.0%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+15
90.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 15 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
91.2%
Evan Johnson run for 9 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
91.3%
Evan Johnson run for 6 yds to the UAB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
91.4%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the UAB 26Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-2
91.4%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
90.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Darious WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
96.2%
Trevor Moore 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:525% → 16%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+67
95.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 59 yds to the NORTHTEXAS 16 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, roughing passer (E.J. Ejiya) to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.4%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.4%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the NoTex 4Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2092% → 92%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
91.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
91.5%
Quinn Shanbour run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
91.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 27TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:5310% → 56%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.2%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
90.8%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Ronnie Turner Jr.Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+26
91.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 26 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
87.2%
A.J. Erdely run for 5 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+12
86.4%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Ronnie Turner Jr. for 12 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
85.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 9 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
85.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Sederian CopelandSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
86.4%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
85.1%
Lucious Stanley run for 8 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+2
85.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 2 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Ronnie Turner Jr.Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.1%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Sederian CopelandSimilar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
44.0%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:2065% → 96%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
65.3%
Jeffery Wilson run for 34 yds to the UAB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
68.3%
UAB Penalty, substitution infraction (Lucious Stanley) to the UAB 12Similar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 8
OPP 12
+22
95.8%
Trevor Moore 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Lucious Stanley for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
-41.1
FG · Q4 0:07
Trevor Moore 22 yd FG GOOD
+27.5
TD · Q4 5:51
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Sederian Copeland for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com