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BGSU

Bowling Green 13 at Middle Tennessee 24

MTSU
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:37 · TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Andrew Clair , return for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+10.7Home team on offense+6.4Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:09: Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 60 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:12: John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 1 yd for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:15: Jake Suder 25 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q2 5:04: John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 64 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:23: John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the MTnSt 12 — MTSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BGSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:52BGSU 4th & 20 at BGSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:15BGSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 8, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−1.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−6.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:04BGSU 4th & 24 at BGSU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:37BGSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:10BGSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:10MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:58BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:11MTSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:15BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 37, down 8
    Close callPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:44MTSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 24, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−1.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:44BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:15MTSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 40, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−1.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:08BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:05MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09BGSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:12MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:04MTSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
69.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
69.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Matthew Wilcox Jr. for 10 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
69.6%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
69.6%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
69.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:0569% → 72%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
69.2%
Ty Lee run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-1
69.3%
Ty Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+10
69.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 10 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
69.3%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+10
69.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 10 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
69.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
50
+22
69.5%
Brad Anderson run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
69.6%
Jocquez Bruce run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
69.6%
Jocquez Bruce run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+17
69.5%
John Urzua pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 17 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.7%
Jocquez Bruce run for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5629% → 32%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
70.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 8 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.6%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
70.7%
Jarret Doege run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+60
67.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 60 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
68.1%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+28
67.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 28 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
69.0%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-10
69.0%
URZUA, John pass complete to LEE, Ty for 11 yards to the BGSU31 (MILTON, Marcus), PENALTY MT holding (JOHNSON, Tyrese) 10 yards to the MT48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+7
68.3%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
68.7%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 9 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
69.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+35
69.2%
John Urzua pass intercepted Marcus Milton return for 25 yds to the BwGrn 5 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Brian Sanders) to the BwGrn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2633% → 33%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
66.7%
Josh Cleveland run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
66.4%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
66.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-10
66.9%
DOEGE, Jarret pass complete to REDDING, Teo for 18 yards to the MT47 (RANDOLPH, D.), PENALTY BGSU holding (HAMPTON, T.) 10 yards to the BGSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 25
-2
67.0%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 20
OWN 23
0
67.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:3368% → 74%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Tyrese JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+21
67.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 21 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
68.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 14 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
68.9%
Ty Lee run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-7
68.9%
John Urzua sacked by Kyle Junior and David Konowalski for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 26 John Urzua fumbled, recovered by MTnSt John Urzua , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+13
68.3%
John Urzua run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
68.9%
Brad Anderson run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
68.9%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 1 yd for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:5728% → 34%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
71.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 8 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
70.9%
Josh Cleveland run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
70.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
70.1%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-10
70.0%
Jarret Doege sacked by Charvarius Ward for a loss of 10 yards to the BwGrn 39 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, intentional grounding (Jarret Doege) to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+24
71.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 24 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
69.8%
Matt Domer run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+12
68.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Quintin Morris for 12 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
68.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete, broken up by Darius HarrisSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
68.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 4 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+4
69.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 4 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
66.2%
Jake Suder 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1169% → 78%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.2%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
69.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 10 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
77.6%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 64 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Josh Cleveland, broken up by Walter BradySimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Josh Cleveland, broken up by Walter BradySimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
77.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 24 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
74.7%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+2
75.8%
Jarret Doege run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-8
75.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Jarret DoegeSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 24
OWN 35
0
77.5%
Joseph Davidson punt for 42 yds , Ty Lee returns for no gain to the MTnSt 23 Ty Lee fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Kholbe ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:3325% → 23%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
74.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 17 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
75.4%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for 5 yards to the MT0, clock 02:37, PENALTY BGSU holding (TANNER, Matt) 10 yards to the MT15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
75.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Montre Gregory, broken up by Mike MinterSimilar
Q2 2:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
76.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Teo Redding for 7 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
77.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 11 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Andrew Clair , return for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:2679% → 81%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
79.2%
Brad Anderson run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+4
79.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Ulysses Williams for 4 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
79.4%
John Urzua pass complete to Ulysses Williams for 11 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.6%
John Urzua run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
80.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.4%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Marcus MiltonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
80.2%
Brad Anderson run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
80.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
80.8%
John Urzua run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 36 John Urzua fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Nate LockeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:3122% → 23%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
78.3%
Josh Cleveland run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-10
77.0%
Jarret Doege sacked by Chris Melton for a loss of 10 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+32
79.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Josh Cleveland for 32 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin Guyton, broken up by O.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
77.0%
Darius Wortham run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
79.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q3 11:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
76.7%
Jake Suder 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
78.8%
John Urzua pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for 9 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+5
79.5%
Brad Anderson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.5%
John Urzua pass incomplete to CJ Windham, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
79.2%
Ty Lee run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
78.8%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Tyrese Johnson, broken up by Montre GregorySimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
77.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
77.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-3
77.8%
Matt Domer run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 27
-8
79.2%
Jarret Doege sacked by Khalil Brooks for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
80.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
80.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+20
81.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for 20 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.2%
Jocquez Bruce run for no gain to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
82.1%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Desmond Anderson, broken up by Fred GarthSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
81.2%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Isiah UptonSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 10
OPP 38
-5
79.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
78.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds, downed at the BwGrn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
80.3%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+10
80.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 10 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
80.9%
Leonard Skattebo run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
80.0%
Jarret Doege run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
80.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
79.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
79.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 17 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Jarret DoegeSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+12
80.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Datrin Guyton for 12 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+8
80.8%
Jarret Doege run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+58
80.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 58 yds , Ty Lee returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3985% → 88%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
84.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+5
85.2%
Jocquez Bruce run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
85.4%
BRUCE, Jocquez rush for 8 yards to the MT25 (POSEY, Armani;HARRIS, Brandon), PENALTY MT holding (FANNIN, Josh) 8 yards to the MT9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+5
85.0%
John Urzua pass complete to CJ Windham for 5 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+26
85.1%
John Urzua pass complete to Isiah Upton for 26 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
86.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (Shannon Smith) to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
87.3%
Jocquez Bruce run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.5%
Jocquez Bruce run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
87.5%
John Urzua run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
86.7%
John Urzua pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
88.2%
Canon Rooker 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Josh ClevelandSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Scott Miller for 20 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
86.4%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
87.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Datrin GuytonSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
89.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:3290% → 94%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+16
89.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
90.3%
Jocquez Bruce run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
90.8%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+10
90.3%
Brad Anderson run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
91.0%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+7
91.0%
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
90.6%
John Urzua run for no gain to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
93.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Montre GregorySimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
93.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
94.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 65 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2394% → 97%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
93.9%
Jocquez Bruce run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-2
94.1%
Jocquez Bruce run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+10
93.9%
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
94.1%
Jocquez Bruce run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+28
94.1%
Jocquez Bruce run for 28 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
94.6%
Brad Anderson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
94.8%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
97.3%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+10
97.3%
Brad Anderson run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:04
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 64 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q2 11:12
John Urzua pass complete to Ty Lee for 1 yd for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
+4.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:23
John Urzua pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the MTnSt 12
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com