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FAU

Florida Atlantic 31 at Buffalo 34

BUF
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:13 · Kyle DeWeen punt for 38 yds , Henry Bussey III returns for 6 yds to the FlAtl 42 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal block (Herb Miller) to the FlAtl 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+2.7Pregame prior−3.2Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Adam Mitcheson 23 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +8.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:17: Theo Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +20.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:30: Devin Singletary run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +21.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:37: Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +26.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 3:13BUF 4th & 5 at FAU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:19BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:06FAU 4th & 6 at BUF 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:43BUF 4th & 20 at BUF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:35FAU 4th & 11 at BUF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 6 at FAU 6, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−8.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:59BUF 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:20FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:17FAU 4th & 15 at FAU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:54BUF 4th & 11 at FAU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−9.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:54FAU 4th & 3 at BUF 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−3.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:30BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:13FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.3%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:23BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:31BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:19FAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:25FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:17BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:30FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:37BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:13FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3746% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
46.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 6 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
46.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 28 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
46.0%
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+6
46.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
46.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+5
46.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
46.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 1
+2
46.0%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree rush for no gain to the FAU20171 (SMITH, Rashad), PENALTY FAU2017 offside (NAGEL, Haiden) 2 yards to the FAU20173, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
46.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
48.7%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
48.8%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
48.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 9 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+6
48.4%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
48.5%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Ryan Williamson return for no gain to the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:4150% → 57%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
49.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 11 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
50.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
50.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+17
50.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 17 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
50.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+24
50.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 24 yds to the FlAtl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
50.4%
Theo Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:1245% → 48%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.9%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
55.2%
Jason Driskel run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 35 Jason Driskel fumbled,Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
55.3%
Devin Singletary run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
50
+5
54.8%
[SGUN], DRISKEL, Jason pass complete to BRYANT, Harriso for 3 yards to the UB47, PENALTY UB substitution infraction 5 yards to the UB45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+1
54.4%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
54.4%
Jason Driskel run for 8 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
54.6%
[SGUN], DRISKEL, Jason pass incomplete to WRIGHT, Willie, PENALTY FAU2017 illegal formation 5 yards to the UB41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+4
55.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
55.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 4 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+37
51.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 37 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
53.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 13 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
53.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
53.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+11
53.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 11 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
54.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
54.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
54.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jacob Martinez, broken up by Rashad SmithSimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+6
53.3%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 38 yds , Henry Bussey III returns for 6 yds to the FlAtl 42 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal block (Herb Miller) to the FlAtl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:0546% → 54%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
54.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 9 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+4
54.1%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
54.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 5 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
54.1%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
54.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
54.2%
Jason Driskel run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+23
54.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 23 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
52.9%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+34
46.3%
Devin Singletary run for 34 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
49.8%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to EILAND, Jamarl, PENALTY FAU2017 roughing passer (BARNWELL, Hosea) 15 yards to the UB35, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
50.1%
Theo Anderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
50.3%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
50.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
49.5%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
48.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+12
49.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 12 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+15
47.7%
Devin Singletary run for 15 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
47.0%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
47.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie Wright, broken up by Jordan CollierSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
47.3%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
48.6%
Ryan Rickel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
50.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
50.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 6 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
50.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
50.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Rashad SmithSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-11
49.5%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Ernest Bagner for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+28
48.9%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 34 yds , Willie Wright returns for 28 yds to the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3155% → 55%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
45.2%
John Franklin III run for 7 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-1
45.2%
Jason Driskel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
46.0%
Jason Driskel run for 3 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 1
OPP 7
-10
47.0%
[SGUN], SINGLETARY, D rush for 7 yards to the UB0, clock 06:40, PENALTY FAU2017 holding (WALTON, Brandon) 10 yards to the UB17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
45.3%
Greg Joseph 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11FG
22 plays · 69 yds · 6:3546% → 53%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
45.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 10 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
48.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
48.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 13 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
49.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
49.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 9 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
50.0%
Tyree Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+10
49.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
48.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
50.0%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+9
50.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.2%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
51.3%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (WEBB, Jacquis) 5 yards to the FAU20178, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
50.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.1%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
53.0%
Adam Mitcheson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
48.8%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+5
49.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 5 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
49.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to John Franklin III, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
51.0%
Ryan Rickel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacob Martinez at the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0053% → 54%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
53.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
54.2%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+5
54.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
55.4%
[SGUN], REED, Emmanuel rush for 7 yards to the 50 yardline (NAGEL, Haiden), PENALTY UB illegal shift 5 yards to the UB38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 15
OWN 0
-12
52.9%
[SGUN], ANDERSON, Drew pass complete to JOHNSON, Anthon for 12 yards to the 50 yardline (MILLER, Herb;WILLIAMS, R.), PENALTY UB pass interference (MABRY, Tyler) 15 yards to the UB23, NO PLAY, PENALTY UB unsportsmanlike conduct (KSIEZARCYK, Evi) 12 yards to the UB11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 42
OWN 11
+15
52.4%
Emmanuel Reed run for 15 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 27
OWN 26
+10
52.5%
Emmanuel Reed run for 10 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+14
51.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 3
50
0
53.6%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 42 yds, downed at the FlAtl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
50.4%
Kamrin Solomon run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+3
50.0%
DeAndre McNeal run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
49.8%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+14
49.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 14 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
48.1%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
47.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
48.5%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
50.8%
Ryan Rickel punt for 51 yds, downed at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:4953% → 79%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
53.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+19
53.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 19 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
53.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+21
54.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 21 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
57.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
57.7%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
57.2%
Theo Anderson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
57.8%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 18 yds to the FlAtl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
58.9%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
58.9%
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.3%
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
72.2%
Jason Driskel sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Ryan Rickel punt for 33 yds, downed at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:3882% → 84%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
81.7%
Drew Anderson sacked by Haiden Nagel for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+13
81.5%
Jamarl Eiland run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+10
82.0%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 10 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
83.1%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 7 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
83.4%
Theo Anderson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.4%
Theo Anderson run for no gain to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
83.3%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (KSIEZARCYK, Evi) 5 yards to the FAU201729, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
82.8%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Kevin McCrarySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+4
81.2%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
84.0%
Adam Mitcheson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2417% → 43%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
83.4%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to DeAndre McNeal, broken up by Tatum SlackSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
85.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 12 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
81.2%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+1
79.9%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
81.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+9
82.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 9 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
80.4%
Devin Singletary run for 8 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+8
78.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 8 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
78.6%
Devin Singletary run for 18 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.4%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
72.3%
Theo Anderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
73.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
72.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Tyler Mabry) to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
70.6%
Drew Anderson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Richard WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Kyle DeWeen punt for 52 yds, downed at the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
68.8%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 4 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
68.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+3
70.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 3 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+2
71.1%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:1487% → 96%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
89.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
95.5%
Drew Anderson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:244% → 32%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.4%
Devin Singletary run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
94.8%
[SGUN], DRISKEL, Jason pass complete to McNEAL, DeAndre for 15 yards to the UB49 (ROBERTS, Tim), PENALTY FAU2017 illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY UB roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
96.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Willie Wright for 13 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
95.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 14 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.1%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
95.1%
Jason Driskel run for 13 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
94.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 23 yds Kamrin Solomon fumbled, forced by Tatum Slack, recovered by FlAtl Kamrin Solomon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.4%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0592% → 90%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
50
-1
91.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
91.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-2
89.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-26
TD · Q4 7:30
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
-21.3
TD · Q3 2:17
Theo Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+20.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com