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USM

Southern Miss 28 at UL Monroe 17

ULM
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:05 · Harrison Heim punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−3.2Pregame prior−12.2Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:36: Caleb Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +6.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:17: SMITH, Ito rush for 9 yards to the USM31, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USM holding (STAGGERS, A.) 10 yards to the USM12, NO PLAY, PENALTY ULM personal foul (Webster, T.) 15 yards to the USM27, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY. — USM win probability +6.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:51: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +8.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:55: Caleb Evans run for 67 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +14.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:31: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +14.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 13USM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51USM 4th & 15 at USM 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10ULM 4th & 18 at ULM 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40USM 4th & 14 at USM 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:05ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:28USM 4th & 6 at USM 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:39ULM 4th & 1 at USM 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−2.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:17ULM 4th & 2 at USM 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:51ULM 4th & 5 at USM 39, down 11
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 8 at USM 28, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:14ULM 4th & 9 at USM 38, down 11
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:06USM 4th & 7 at USM 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:55USM 4th & 1 at USM 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.6%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:31ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:06USM 4th & 7 at USM 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:09USM 4th & 10 at ULM 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:33ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:18USM 4th & 13 at USM 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:41ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:15USM 4th & 18 at USM 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−2.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:20ULM 4th & 14 at USM 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:38USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:36ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:05USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:51USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:55ULM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:31USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.1%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.1%
Derrick Gore run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Xavier ThigpenSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Harrison Heim punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2167% → 67%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
33.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+1
33.5%
Ito Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 44 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-2
33.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
33.6%
Kwadra Griggs run for 12 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
33.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+20
33.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for 20 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
33.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 19 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
33.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the LaMon 15Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
33.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 15 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.5%
Derrick Gore run for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
33.6%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
33.6%
Garrett Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
33.5%
Garrett Smith run for no gain to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+22
33.3%
Harrison Heim punt for 44 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 22 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
32.9%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
32.9%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
32.8%
Kwadra Griggs run for 7 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-13
32.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the SoMis 40 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+6
33.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 10
OPP 49
-5
33.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
33.6%
Zac Everett punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
33.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
33.5%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-11
33.2%
Caleb Evans sacked by Racheem Boothe and Jacques Turner for a loss of 11 yards to the LaMon 12Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+43
33.0%
Harrison Heim punt for 43 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
32.7%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Chase Day and Ty Shelby for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 13
OWN 41
0
33.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to T'Rod DanielsSimilar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 13
OWN 41
-1
33.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
33.8%
Zac Everett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:3934% → 43%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
33.7%
Derrick Gore run for 9 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+6
34.4%
Derrick Gore run for 6 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
34.2%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
34.8%
Derrick Gore run for 12 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
35.4%
Derrick Gore run for 26 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
36.0%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
36.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 6 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
35.4%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.4%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:3161% → 68%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
39.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Kwadra Griggs) to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
39.2%
Kwadra Griggs run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+7
39.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for 7 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+37
39.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Jaylond Adams for 37 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
36.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 6 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
36.5%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+27
31.7%
Ito Smith run for 27 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
33.0%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 22Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+1
33.0%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+17
32.4%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for 17 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
33.7%
Derrick Gore run for 6 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
34.1%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Markis McCray, broken up by Sherrod RuffSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
33.4%
Harrison Heim punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
33.2%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
32.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
33.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 24
-5
33.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Zac Everett) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
34.5%
Zac Everett punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:3633% → 41%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+44
32.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Josh Pederson for 29 yds to the ULMONROE 32 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
35.1%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
35.1%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+7
34.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Derrick Gore for 7 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+7
34.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Josh Pederson for 7 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.2%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.0%
Derrick Gore run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
35.7%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 2Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
40.9%
Craig Ford 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:2666% → 75%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+15
33.6%
SMITH, Ito rush for 9 yards to the USM31, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USM holding (STAGGERS, A.) 10 yards to the USM12, NO PLAY, PENALTY ULM personal foul (Webster, T.) 15 yards to the USM27, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+37
36.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 37 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
34.1%
Ito Smith run for 19 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
33.6%
Kwadra Griggs run for 7 yds to the LaMon 10 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (Korey Robertson) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 13
OPP 20
0
33.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Collin TurnerSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+20
25.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
27.0%
Marcus Green run for 31 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
29.2%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
29.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 5 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
29.1%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
28.1%
Harrison Heim punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:2774% → 75%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
26.5%
Collin Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+24
25.7%
Ito Smith run for 24 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
24.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 13 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
23.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-15
23.5%
GRIGGS, Kwadra pass complete to SMITH, Ito for 13 yards to the ULM46 (Turner, Collin), PENALTY USM illegal block (POLLARD, Ty) 15 yards to the USM26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 25
OWN 26
+8
25.1%
Jaylond Adams run for 8 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
25.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
26.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
26.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
27.0%
Zac Everett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Green at the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4026% → 26%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
25.8%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
25.9%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+20
25.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 20 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
27.6%
Derrick Gore run for 10 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
27.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
27.7%
Derrick Gore run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
27.1%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
26.0%
Harrison Heim punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
25.3%
Kwadra Griggs run for 10 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
25.0%
T'Rod Daniels run for 4 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-10
24.6%
GRIGGS, Kwadra rush for 1 yard to the USM35 (Tucker, Caleb), PENALTY USM holding (TERRY, Jimmie) 10 yards to the USM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+9
25.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
25.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae Staggers, broken up by Collin TurnerSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+3
25.9%
Zac Everett punt for 37 yds , Marcus Green returns for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
40.4%
Caleb Evans run for 67 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2462% → 79%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
38.5%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-4
37.1%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
39.2%
GRIGGS, Kwadra pass incomplete to ROBERTSON, K., PENALTY ULM pass interference (Offray, Juwan) 15 yards to the USM38, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
36.0%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Caleb Tucker for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 20
OWN 28
+3
38.9%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+16
39.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 16 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
37.3%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
35.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
34.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+42
20.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
23.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
22.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
21.6%
Harrison Heim punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
21.8%
T'Rod Daniels run for no gain to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-2
22.0%
T'Rod Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+5
22.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 4:06
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
23.0%
Zac Everett punt for 33 yds , Marcus Green returns for no gain to the LaMon 43 Marcus Green fumbled, recovered by SoMis Tyler BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
19.2%
Ito Smith run for 14 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
18.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 8 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 21
-1
18.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-10
19.3%
GRIGGS, Kwadra rush for 17 yards to the ULM5 (Miller, Sam), PENALTY USM holding (TERRY, Jimmie) 10 yards to the ULM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 13
OPP 32
0
19.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass intercepted, touchback. Corey Straughter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0420% → 18%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
19.5%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-1
19.3%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
18.4%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
17.5%
Harrison Heim punt for 48 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 20 Allenzae Staggers fumbled, recovered by SoMis Allenzae StaggersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
18.2%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
18.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+13
18.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
16.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 14 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
16.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by JJ DallasSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
16.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
16.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
18.6%
Zac Everett punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
16.0%
Kayin White run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 6Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 13
OWN 6
-3
15.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (JJ Dallas) to the LaMon 3Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 16
OWN 3
+4
15.9%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 12
OWN 7
+6
15.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 6 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
14.5%
Harrison Heim punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
10.9%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+3
10.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to T'Rod Daniels for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-7
11.0%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 40 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+10
12.0%
Zac Everett punt for 43 yds , Marcus Green returns for 10 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
13.0%
Caleb Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
13.2%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
12.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
11.6%
Harrison Heim punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
8.9%
Ito Smith run for 15 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
8.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
8.5%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-15
8.7%
GRIGGS, Kwadra pass complete to STAGGERS, A. for 9 yards to the ULM44 (Jenkins, Roland), PENALTY USM pass interference (ROBERTSON, K.) 15 yards to the USM32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 18
OWN 32
0
9.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Jay'Shawn WashingtonSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+30
9.5%
Zac Everett punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 47 , Marcus Green returns for 30 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 29DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:1411% → 6%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
11.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
11.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jarell Brown for 14 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jarell BrownSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
11.9%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
10.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 9
OPP 32
-5
6.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Markis McCray) to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 14
OPP 37
+9
5.5%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30Uncategorized
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
4.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (16 yards) (Wesley Thompson) to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
4.2%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+44
4.1%
Ito Smith run for 44 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
3.8%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 3Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:55
Caleb Evans run for 67 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q3 5:31
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 1:51
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 20 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com