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UNT

North Texas 32 at SMU 54

SMU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:54 · Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 32 , Jaelon Darden returns for 12 yds to the NoTex 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+11.9Home team on offense+27.2Score differential+18.2Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:15: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 40 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:10: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:24: Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +7.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:23: Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK) — SMU win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:56: Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 72 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK) — UNT win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:41SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45UNT 4th & 6 at SMU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32SMU 4th & 5 at UNT 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 1 at SMU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:38UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:23SMU 4th & 1 at UNT 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:15UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:59SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:56SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:54SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 38, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:54UNT 4th & 5 at SMU 28, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:30UNT 4th & 17 at UNT 35, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:09SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 37, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:24UNT 4th & 5 at midfield, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:02SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 10, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:41UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:15SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:10SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:24SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:23SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:56UNT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:30SMU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:27SMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:45UNT Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:24UNT Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1916% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.0%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+30
84.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 30 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
84.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+28
84.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 28 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
84.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
84.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.3%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.3%
Ben Hicks sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
82.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+20
82.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 35 yds SMU Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0019% → 20%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
81.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 10 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.5%
Mason Fine run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
81.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffery WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
81.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
80.0%
Trevor Moore 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5681% → 81%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
80.6%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-3
80.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+62
80.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 62 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
81.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+3
81.0%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-8
81.2%
FINE, Mason pass complete to SMITH, Kelvin for 23 yards to the NT39, out-of-bounds (CLEMONS, Rodney), PENALTY NT illegal block (MURRAY, Jordan) 8 yards to the NT8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 11
OWN 8
-1
81.3%
Mason Fine sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 7Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 12
OWN 7
0
81.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 29 yds, downed at the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4481% → 80%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
80.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+11
80.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Shelby Walker for 11 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
80.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
80.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Raymond Epps, broken up by Kishawn McClainSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
80.4%
Josh Williams 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2621% → 22%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
79.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 6 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
79.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 1 yd to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
79.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 4 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
79.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
79.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 13 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
78.7%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
77.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
77.5%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
78.2%
Jeffery Wilson run for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
79.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
79.8%
Ben Hicks run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+14
79.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Alex Honey for 14 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
80.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 8 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
80.3%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted Kemon Hall return for no gain to the NoTex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
77.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+9
77.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 9 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+2
77.6%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
77.2%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 16Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+4
77.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 4 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+4
77.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 4 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
78.0%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 41 yds, downed at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5277% → 83%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
78.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
76.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
50
0
78.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Trey Quinn, broken up by Brandon GarnerSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 10
50
0
78.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 10
50
+13
77.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
78.6%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 40 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 13
OPP 40
0
77.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Shelby WalkerSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+40
82.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 40 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
81.8%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
81.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
82.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Caleb Chumley for 9 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
80.5%
Nic Smith run for 11 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Mikial OnuSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
80.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nic SmithSimilar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
81.0%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Elijah McQueen return for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 2:1682% → 88%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
82.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
82.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+27
81.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 27 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
83.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+6
83.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
83.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 1 yd to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
83.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Ke'Mon FreemanSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+13
82.6%
HICKS, Ben pass incomplete to PROCHE, James, PENALTY NT pass interference (PRESTON, Ashton) 13 yards to the NT16, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
83.4%
D.J. Gillins run for 7 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+4
83.4%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
83.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 1 yd to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
86.9%
Nic Smith run for 14 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
89.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Raymond EppsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
88.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, offside defense (Roderick Young) to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
88.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds , Turner Smiley returns for no gain to the NoTex 35 Turner Smiley fumbled, recovered by SMU Kevin ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.8%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Demerick Gary return for 3 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5396% → 99%
Q3 14:16
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+5
96.0%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland Sutton, broken up by Brandon GarnerSimilar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
96.1%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
96.1%
D.J. Gillins run for 2 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.0%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
99.1%
Jeffery Wilson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
99.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jeffery Wilson, broken up by Kyran MitchellSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 8 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-2
99.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+11
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 11 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
99.4%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Courtland Sutton) to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 10 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-6
99.3%
Ben Hicks sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Jamie Sackville punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
96.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 72 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
97.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 16 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Courtland SuttonSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
97.1%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Alex Honey, broken up by Kemon HallSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
96.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22SF
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:493% → 2%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-10
97.3%
Mason Fine sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 10 yards to the NoTex 2Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 20
OWN 2
0
97.7%
FINE, Mason pass complete to SMILEY, Turner for 30 yards to the NT32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NT holding (MURRAY, Jordan) 2 yards to the NT0, NO PLAY, TEAM safety, clock 04:02. for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+12
97.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 32 , Jaelon Darden returns for 12 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
97.8%
FINE, Mason pass complete to WILSON, Jeffery for 3 yards to the NT35, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NT holding (MAYFIELD, Riley) 10 yards to the NT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+16
97.9%
Mason Fine run for 16 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+18
97.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 3 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Delano Robinson) to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner Smiley, broken up by Demerick GarySimilar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
97.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
97.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for 3 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
97.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3099% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
98.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Quinn for 25 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.8%
Xavier Jones run for 47 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Jeffery Wilson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jeffery Wilson for no gain to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 8 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
99.8%
Mason Fine sacked by Kyran Mitchell for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 18
OWN 34
-6
99.8%
Mason Fine sacked by Justin Lawler for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 27 Mason Fine fumbled, recovered by NoTex Riley Mayfield , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 25
OWN 27
+8
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trey Quinn at the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
99.9%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 76 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+45
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Turner Smiley for 45 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 29 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Garner) to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to Kevin Thomas for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 2
50
-5
99.9%
SMU Penalty, false start (Bryce Wilds) to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-8
99.9%
Rafe Peavey sacked by Khairi Muhammad and Sid Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 47 yds, downed at the NoTex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 4:000% → 1%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 15 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
99.9%
Mason Fine sacked by Tyeson Neals for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
50
+37
99.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 37 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 13 yds for a TD, (Mason Fine pass to Jaelon Darden for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
99.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
99.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+2
99.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 19 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 12 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Turner SmileySimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:24
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 35 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q2 0:10
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 4 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 5:15
Ben Hicks pass complete to Courtland Sutton for 40 yds for a TD, (Josh Williams KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com