Try the model
NWST

Northwestern State 24 at Louisiana Tech 52

LT
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Joe Aillet Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:46 · Eric Piccione punt for 35 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 66 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior+41.8Home team on offense+4.9Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:45: Chris Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK) — NWST win probability +3.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:05: Bobby Chan-Chan pass complete to Lucas Morgan for 27 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK) — NWST win probability +5.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:58: Jaqwis Dancy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:39: Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:40: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 36 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NWST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27LT 4th & 1 at LT 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56NWST 4th & 12 at NWST 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:51LT 4th & 9 at LT 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:54NWST 4th & 21 at NWST 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:58LT 4th & 3 at NWST 14, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.8%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:46NWST 4th & 9 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 10 at NWST 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:46NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:10NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 37, down 10
    Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:02LT 4th & 10 at LT 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:11NWST 4th & 4 at LT 8, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:11LT 4th & 9 at NWST 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:11NWST 4th & 28 at NWST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:10LT 4th & 7 at LT 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:18NWST 4th & 8 at NWST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:40NWST 4th & 9 at NWST 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NWST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:27NWST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:02LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:45NWST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:05NWST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:58LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:39LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:40LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:33LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.9%
Bobby Chan-Chan pass complete to J.D. Almond for 18 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.9%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 48Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+52
98.7%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Jaylen Watson for 52 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FUMBLE
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
98.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 15Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+11
98.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 11 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.8%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+9
98.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 9 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
98.8%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-5
98.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
98.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 9 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+6
98.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the NWSt 37 J'Mar Smith fumbled, forced by Rashaun Croney, recovered by NWSt Nicholas FordeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
98.3%
Chris Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 33Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+7
98.3%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Chris Jones for 7 yds to the NWSt 40Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
98.3%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 35Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
98.3%
J.D. Almond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Eric Piccione punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by D'Ronne LittletonSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
98.2%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
98.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
98.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
98.0%
Chris Jones run for 2 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
98.0%
Chris Jones run for 1 yd to the NWSt 32Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-10
98.0%
J.D. Almond sacked by Deldrick Canty for a loss of 10 yards to the NWSt 18 J.D. Almond fumbled, recovered by NWSt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 21
OWN 18
0
98.0%
Eric Piccione punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:1698% → 98%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.8%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the LaTch 47Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+32
97.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 32 yds to the NWSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
97.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 9 yds to the NWSt 12Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 1
OPP 12
-2
97.8%
Boston Scott run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 14Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 14
0
97.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Ian EdwardsSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
97.5%
Jonathan Barnes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.8%
J.D. Almond run for 11 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
97.8%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Bryson Bourque for 13 yds to the NWSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.7%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Bryson BourqueSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
97.7%
Jared West run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 9
50
0
97.7%
J.D. Almond pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 9
50
+4
97.8%
Eric Piccione punt for 42 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 4 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:2797% → 97%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
97.4%
Jarred Craft run for 17 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
97.4%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
97.4%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
97.5%
Boston Scott run for 9 yds to the NWSt 49Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
97.5%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+4
97.2%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.3%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the NWSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
97.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
97.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Lionel WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
97.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 47 yds, downed at the NWSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 10PUNT RETURN TD
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:243% → 3%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
97.0%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 8 yds to the NWSt 9Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+4
97.0%
Chris Jones run for 4 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
97.0%
Chris Jones run for 1 yd to the NWSt 14Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+8
97.0%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 8 yds to the NWSt 22Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
97.0%
Chris Jones run for 2 yds to the NWSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.0%
J.D. Almond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
97.0%
Chris Jones run for 1 yd to the NWSt 25Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Lucas Morgan for 6 yds to the NWSt 31Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+66
97.1%
Eric Piccione punt for 35 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 66 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
97.0%
Jared West run for 3 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
97.0%
Jared West run for 1 yd to the NWSt 37 Jared West fumbled, forced by Russell Farris,Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
97.0%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Eric Piccione punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
97.0%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+9
97.0%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
97.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Boston Scott, broken up by Dannie HarmonSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
96.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Rashaun CroneySimilar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+11
96.8%
Brady Farlow punt for 45 yds , Hayden Bourgeois returns for 11 yds to the NWSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 13FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:423% → 4%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
96.8%
Marquisian Chapman run for 10 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
96.7%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 29 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
96.5%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Chris JonesSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.5%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 5 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+12
96.6%
J.D. Almond run for 12 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
96.4%
J.D. Almond run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 15Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
96.5%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Marquisian ChapmanSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+7
96.6%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Lucas Morgan for 7 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
95.6%
Eric Piccione 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:0996% → 98%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
95.9%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
96.0%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+14
95.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 14 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+53
96.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Javonte Woodard for 53 yds to the NWSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.6%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.1%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
97.0%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Bryson Bourque for 6 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
97.0%
J.D. Almond sacked by Jordan Bradford for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 17TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.5%
Chris Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-12
94.8%
SMITH, J'Mar pass complete to MCKNIGHT, K. for 15 yards to the LATECH44 (Balthazor, Aust), PENALTY LATECH illegal block (DUGAS, O'Shea) 12 yards to the LATECH17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+17
94.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 17 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 14:37
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-6
94.7%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Obinna Iheoma for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 27 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by NWSt Nick Pierotti , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:147% → 12%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.9%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Bobby Chan-ChanSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
87.8%
Bobby Chan-Chan pass complete to Lucas Morgan for 27 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:5491% → 88%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
91.0%
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+15
91.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 15 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
91.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+16
91.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marlon Watts for 16 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.0%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the NWSt 36Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
92.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+1
91.6%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd to the NWSt 35Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+52
88.1%
Jonathan Barnes 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
86.4%
Jared West run for 23 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
84.9%
J.D. Almond run for 4 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-15
84.7%
West, Jared rush for no gain to the LATECH38 (DURMAN, Brandon;WASHINGTON, D.), PENALTY NWST illegal block (Johnson, Korlis) 15 yards to the NWST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 21
OWN 47
+3
86.2%
Jared West run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 18
50
-5
86.5%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Jared West for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 45Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 23
OWN 45
-5
87.6%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 40Similar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 28
OWN 40
0
87.7%
Eric Piccione punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaTch 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
85.8%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
85.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
84.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marlon WattsSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
84.3%
Brady Farlow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Xavier Bell at the NWSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
82.6%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Bobby Chan-ChanSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
83.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Marquisian ChapmanSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
83.9%
Clay Holgorsen run for 2 yds to the NWSt 34Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+8
84.4%
Eric Piccione punt for 48 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 8 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:1284% → 94%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
83.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 6 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+9
83.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 9 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
85.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
86.0%
Jarred Craft run for no gain to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+29
85.4%
Boston Scott run for 29 yds to the NWSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
86.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 6 yds to the NWSt 16 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (Chris Jones) to the NWSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
86.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 4 yds to the NWSt 4Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.0%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 25INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:5810% → 12%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
90.4%
Chris Jones run for 22 yds to the NWSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
88.9%
Chris Jones run for 7 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
87.8%
Chris Jones run for 1 yd to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
88.3%
Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.1%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+22
88.1%
Clay Holgorsen pass intercepted Dae'Von Washington return for 22 yds to the NWSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:4794% → 97%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
93.7%
Jarred Craft run for 21 yds to the NWSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
93.9%
Boston Scott run for 1 yd to the NWSt 25Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
93.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+23
93.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 22 yds to the NWSt 3 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, personal foul (D'Ronne Littleton) to the NWSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.3%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 27INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
95.7%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 9 yds to the NWSt 33Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
95.2%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 4 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
95.4%
Clay Holgorsen sacked by Courtney Wallace for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 32Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Cameron LazareSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+4
95.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass intercepted Dae'Von Washington return for 4 yds to the NWSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 36 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
99.4%
Chris Jones run for 4 yds to the NWSt 11Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+21
99.4%
J.D. Almond pass complete to Kwan Adkins for 21 yds to the NWSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.3%
Chris Jones run for 1 yd to the NWSt 29Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
99.3%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Jaylen WatsonSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
99.3%
J.D. Almond pass incomplete to Kwan AdkinsSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
Eric Piccione punt for 48 yds , Teddy Veal returns for 8 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 30TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:3399% → 100%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 8 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.4%
Boston Scott run for 12 yds to the NWSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 18 yds to the NWSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to DeJuawn Oliver for 9 yds to the NWSt 18Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+1
99.4%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
100.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jarred Craft for 17 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 31END OF GAME
15 plays · 85 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
100.0%
Tyreik Campbell run for 11 yds to the NWSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
100.0%
Tyreik Campbell run for 6 yds to the NWSt 25Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Stadford Anderson run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 14 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Stadford Anderson for 9 yds to the LATECH 48 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Kevin Ratliff for 10 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Kalen Meggs for 8 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Chris FullerSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass complete to Chris Fuller for 10 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Holgorsen, Clay pass incomplete to Bell, Xavier, PENALTY LATECH pass interference (SNEED, L'Jarius) 13 yards to the LATECH2, 1ST DOWN NWST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Chris FullerSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
99.9%
NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 7Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Xavier Bell, broken up by Eric KendziorSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
100.0%
Clay Holgorsen pass incomplete to Xavier BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:58
Jaqwis Dancy run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 13:05
Bobby Chan-Chan pass complete to Lucas Morgan for 27 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q4 11:39
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com