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NAVY

Navy 42 at Florida Atlantic 19

FAU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2017 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:12 · Owen White punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−23.9Score differential−12.8Pregame prior−6.0Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: Daniel Parr pass complete to Willie Wright for 95 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +9.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:58: Zach Abey run for 40 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:08: Joshua Walker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:34: Joshua Walker run for 48 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:17: Zach Abey run for 23 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 28 at FAU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:14FAU 4th & 6 at NAVY 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 11 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53FAU 4th & 28 at FAU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:14FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:10NAVY 4th & 8 at FAU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:58FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:34FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 17, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:25NAVY 4th & 1 at FAU 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−2.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 39, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:48NAVY 4th & 3 at FAU 12, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:06NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:45FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:58NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:34NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:17NAVY Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:42NAVY Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:53FAU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.5%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Devin Singletary for 12 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
36.5%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
36.5%
PARR, Daniel pass incomplete to McNEAL, DeAndre, PENALTY NAVY offside (THOMPSON, Jerry) 5 yards to the FAU201742, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-1
36.5%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-22
36.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 28
OWN 19
+2
36.5%
Ryan Rickel punt for 41 yds , Craig Scott returns for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:2363% → 64%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
37.0%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
37.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+36
37.0%
Zach Abey run for 36 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
36.9%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+4
36.9%
Joshua Walker run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+4
36.9%
Darryl Bonner run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
36.9%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.0%
Tre Walker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 78 yds · 4:5237% → 39%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
36.7%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Henry Bussey IIISimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
36.6%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+15
36.4%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 15 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
36.8%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Henry Bussey III for no gain to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
36.7%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+6
36.8%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 6 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
37.1%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 25 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
37.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Willie Wright for 6 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 0
0
36.7%
PARR, Daniel pass incomplete to HARRISON, T, PENALTY FAU2017 holding off-setting, PENALTY NAVY pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-8
37.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+25
37.0%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 25 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
37.6%
Daniel Parr pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
37.6%
Daniel Parr run for 3 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.3%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Devin Singletary for no gain to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
39.1%
Greg Joseph 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:1462% → 60%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
38.4%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
38.1%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
38.0%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Brandon ColonSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+2
38.5%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
37.9%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+4
37.9%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
37.7%
John Brown III run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
37.6%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 42 Zach Abey fumbled, recovered by Navy Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+8
38.6%
Joshua Walker run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
50
0
39.8%
Owen White punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -18 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
39.2%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Willie Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+2
39.0%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 2 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-5
38.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-6
38.4%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 12 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal forward pass (Tavaris Harrison) to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 28
OWN 7
+4
38.0%
Ryan Rickel punt for 40 yds , Craig Scott returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
38.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the FlAtl 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Haiden NagelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
40.9%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-10
40.0%
Daniel Parr sacked by Jerry Thompson for a loss of 10 yards to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+9
38.6%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 9 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
38.6%
Ryan Rickel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2061% → 61%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
39.4%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
39.5%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+31
39.4%
Zach Abey run for 31 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
37.9%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
38.3%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
38.5%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
39.0%
Owen White punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlAtl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
1 play · 95 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+95
48.9%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Willie Wright for 95 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4750% → 62%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
49.7%
Zach Abey pass complete to Craig Scott for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
48.2%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
47.9%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
47.9%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
47.1%
Joshua Walker run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
47.1%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+40
37.7%
Zach Abey run for 40 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
41.0%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
40.9%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Tyris Wooten for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Hudson Sullivan) to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
42.0%
Daniel Parr pass complete to John Franklin III for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-3
41.4%
Daniel Parr sacked by Hudson Sullivan for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+8
39.9%
Daniel Parr pass complete to John Franklin III for 8 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
40.9%
Ryan Rickel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:3461% → 76%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.3%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
39.5%
Zach Abey run for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
38.3%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+56
38.1%
Zach Abey pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 56 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.9%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Craig Scott, broken up by Quran HafizSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
34.9%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.0%
Joshua Walker run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
28.0%
Devin Singletary run for 17 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2673% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Malcolm PerrySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
27.6%
Zach Abey run for 10 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
26.2%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+11
26.4%
Darryl Bonner run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
13.3%
Joshua Walker run for 48 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.7%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.5%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
15.9%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
15.9%
Ryan Rickel punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
13.5%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
13.5%
Darryl Bonner run for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+1
13.9%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
14.1%
Owen White punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5615% → 17%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
15.3%
De'Andre Johnson run for 17 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
15.8%
De'Andre Johnson run for 12 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
16.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 14 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-17
16.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 27
OPP 32
0
15.6%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 27
OPP 32
-4
15.0%
Daniel Parr run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 36 Daniel Parr fumbled, recovered by FlAtlSimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 31
OPP 36
+54
17.4%
Greg Joseph 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0885% → 97%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.7%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
14.4%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
14.8%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
13.7%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+4
13.6%
John Brown III run for 4 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
13.6%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
13.2%
Joshua Walker run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
13.5%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
13.5%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+3
13.2%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+8
14.4%
Chris High run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
2.7%
Zach Abey run for 23 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:174% → 4%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
4.1%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
4.3%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to D'Anfernee McGriff for no gain to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-2
4.2%
De'Andre Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
3.7%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
0.8%
Zach Abey pass complete to Darryl Bonner for 39 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:492% → 3%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.5%
Daniel Parr pass complete to DeAndre McNeal for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
1.5%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to DeAndre McNealSimilar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
1.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
2.9%
DeAndre McNeal 62 Yd pass from Daniel Parr (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
2.3%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
2.2%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
2.2%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+4
2.2%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
2.3%
Zach Abey pass intercepted Chris Tooley return for no gain to the FlAtl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
2.3%
Daniel Parr pass complete to Devin Singletary for 16 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.4%
Daniel Parr pass incomplete to Daniel Parr, broken up by Micah ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
2.3%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+25
2.3%
Daniel Parr pass intercepted Micah Thomas return for 25 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
1.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
1.5%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
1.5%
Darryl Bonner run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
1.0%
Bennett Moehring 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
1.7%
De'Andre Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
1.7%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
1.7%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
1.7%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to D'Anfernee McGriff for 5 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
1.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
1.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass intercepted Noruwa Obanor return for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.7%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
0.7%
Zach Abey run for 8 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
0.8%
Chris High run for 9 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+3
0.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.7%
Zach Abey pass incomplete to Tyler Carmona, broken up by Chris TooleySimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
0.7%
Brandon Colon run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
0.7%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.7%
Joshua Walker run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
0.7%
Joshua Walker run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-2
0.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:34
Joshua Walker run for 48 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q3 1:17
Zach Abey run for 23 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q2 7:45
Daniel Parr pass complete to Willie Wright for 95 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com