Try the model
DUKE

Duke 31 at Wake Forest 23

WAKE
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:26 · Dom Maggio punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+18.9Home team on offense+4.4Garbage-time factor+1.3Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:44: John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 43 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +5.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:56: Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:58: Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 13:53: Daniel Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +25.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Brittain Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +29.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 11DUKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:04DUKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:26DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:38WAKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:56DUKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:56WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:35WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:46DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:26WAKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:43DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:44DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:43WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:08DUKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:19WAKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%−0.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−6.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:31WAKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−8.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:53WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−2.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:22DUKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 20, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−2.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−19.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:23WAKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.9%−3.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:48DUKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−3.8
    28% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−3.3
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:15DUKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:04WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:44WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:56DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:58DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:53DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:23DUKE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 12 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-4
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+22
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Justin Strnad return for 22 yds to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:1777% → 78%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
77.2%
John Wolford run for 7 yds to the Duke 15 John Wolford fumbled, forced by Dylan Singleton, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
77.2%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+9
77.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 9 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 3 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
77.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 11 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
77.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
77.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
77.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
77.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+2
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
77.4%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
77.7%
John Wolford run for 1 yd to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
77.6%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
77.5%
John Wolford run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 74 yds, downed at the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
77.6%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
77.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
77.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+9
77.9%
Austin Parker punt for 37 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4078% → 78%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
78.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 8 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
78.2%
Arkeem Byrd run for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
78.0%
Byrd, A rush draw play for 1 yard to the DU19 (Singleton, Dy), PENALTY DU offside (Ferguson, Q) 5 yards to the DU15, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
78.2%
Arkeem Byrd run for 4 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
78.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 1 yd to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
78.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam Serigne, broken up by Dylan SingletonSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+29
78.1%
Mike Weaver 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4223% → 23%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+13
77.4%
Daniel Jones run for 13 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
77.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
77.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-1
76.9%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+19
77.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 19 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
76.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
76.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Duke Daniel Jones , return for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
77.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
77.4%
Austin Parker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
77.6%
Wolford, J crossing pass incomplete to Bachman, A (Gilbert, M), PENALTY DU pass interference (Gilbert, M) 5 yards to the WF35, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.7%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
77.6%
Matt Colburn run for 7 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
78.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
77.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 41 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0223% → 23%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
77.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 19 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
76.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
76.4%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
76.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
77.3%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for no gain to the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
77.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Arkeem Byrd for 5 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
77.5%
Arkeem Byrd run for 1 yd to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+6
77.1%
John Wolford run for 6 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
77.7%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
77.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
77.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Dylan SingletonSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 2
OWN 31
-2
76.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 59 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
77.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-1
77.3%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
77.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+5
78.2%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
78.4%
John Wolford run for 18 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
78.9%
Tabari Hines run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
78.7%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+1
78.4%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
77.6%
Dom Maggio punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
77.7%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+4
77.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 3
OWN 9
-4
78.4%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 5Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
78.7%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
84.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 43 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
83.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
83.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
83.7%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for no gain to the WFrst 25 Jessie Bates III fumbled, recovered by WFrst Jessie Bates III , return for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck Wade, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.0%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Arkeem ByrdSimilar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
83.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 62 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 7 yds to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:5716% → 26%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
83.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
83.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 14 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Cameron GlennSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
83.5%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+35
82.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 35 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
74.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
74.5%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Demetrius Kemp return for no gain to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20INT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
78.4%
Arkeem Byrd run for no gain to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
78.3%
Arkeem Byrd run for 3 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+36
77.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 36 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
80.1%
Wolford, J deep pass incomplete to Wade, C, PENALTY WF illegal formation 5 yards to the DU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
79.3%
John Wolford pass intercepted Mark Gilbert return for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
77.8%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
77.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.7%
Matt Colburn run for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
79.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
78.7%
John Wolford sacked by Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+33
76.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 53 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 33 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
75.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
75.3%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-3
75.1%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
76.7%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Amari Henderson return for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:0179% → 83%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
79.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.8%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+36
78.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 36 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
81.2%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
81.2%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
80.3%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
83.2%
Mike Weaver 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2117% → 35%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+41
82.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 41 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
80.0%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+16
79.6%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
79.6%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
79.6%
Brown, B rush up middle for 2 yards to the WF9 (Black, P), PENALTY WF substitution infraction 5 yards to the WF6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
64.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:2772% → 78%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
70.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 12 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for no gain to the WFrst 37Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
72.3%
Arkeem Byrd run for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
73.4%
Arkeem Byrd run for 7 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
74.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Arkeem Byrd for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+13
74.8%
John Wolford run for 13 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
75.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
75.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-5
74.4%
John Wolford run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
77.9%
Mike Weaver 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3826% → 53%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
73.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
73.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
73.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+17
73.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 17 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
70.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
70.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-3
69.8%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+36
72.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 36 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.3%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.4%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
55.2%
John Wolford sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
52.9%
Matt Colburn run for 12 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
53.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:5947% → 84%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
52.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
53.0%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+33
54.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 33 yds to the WAKEFOREST 41 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
48.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
48.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+13
49.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 13 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
46.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
46.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 7 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
48.1%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+4
50.9%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
46.1%
Brittain Brown run for 12 yds to the WFrst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.2%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
23.1%
Kendall Hinton run for 3 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+23
23.0%
Kendall Hinton run for 23 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
26.1%
Kendall Hinton run for 6 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
28.1%
Arkeem Byrd run for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+1
27.1%
Kendall Hinton run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
24.6%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31PUNT
12 plays · 10 yds · 3:0189% → 92%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
11.1%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
10.7%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
10.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
11.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
9.7%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+3
7.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+2
6.8%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-5
7.7%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
8.3%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 32INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.9%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
6.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 6 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
7.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 11 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
7.5%
John Wolford pass intercepted Mark Gilbert return for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 33END OF GAME
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:5097% → 97%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-5
3.7%
DUKE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 18
OWN 41
-2
4.0%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 20
OWN 39
-5
3.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:23
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
-29.9
TD · Q4 13:53
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
-25.2
TD · Q3 6:58
Daniel Jones pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com