Try the model
MIA

Miami 14 at Pittsburgh 24

PITT
2017 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2017 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.9PITT 98.6%Kenny Pickett 22 Yd Run (Alex KessmanKick)AWAY 7 - HOME 24 · Q4 2:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:54 · Kenny Pickett 22 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior−1.7Home team on offense+30.3Garbage-time factor+14.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.0Score differential+15.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:03: Ahmmon Richards 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +6.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:35: Kenny Pickett 6 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +10.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:35: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 9 yds to the MiaFl 25 — PITT win probability +6.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:47: Qadree Ollison 5 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +18.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:54: Kenny Pickett 22 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:16PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45PITT 4th & 4 at MIA 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:45MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44MIA 4th & 7 at PITT 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54PITT 4th & 10 at MIA 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:58MIA 4th & 3 at PITT 45, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.4%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:56MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:19PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:54MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:50PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−0.4
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:11MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:49MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:54PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:31MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:58PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:04MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:54PITT 4th & 6 at MIA 22, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:03MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:35PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:47PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:54PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:16MIA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3019% → 21%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
19.5%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
19.8%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.1%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
20.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 5 yds Jester Weah fumbled, forced by Jaquan Johnson, recovered by PittSimilar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
20.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+52
20.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4079% → 77%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
21.0%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+5
21.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 5 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+1
21.7%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
21.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-6
22.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Dewayne Hendrix for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 16
OWN 10
0
22.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 16
OWN 10
0
22.6%
Zach Feagles punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3623% → 24%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
22.9%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
23.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
23.3%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
23.4%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
24.1%
Alex Kessman 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4376% → 74%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
24.2%
Malik Rosier run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
24.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
24.8%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
25.0%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+2
25.4%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
26.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:4626% → 30%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
25.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 8 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
26.7%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
26.4%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
26.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
27.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
28.6%
Quadree Henderson run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
29.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-18
29.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the MiaFl 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Michael PinckneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5673% → 71%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
27.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
27.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
29.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:4929% → 30%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.9%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
29.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Chris ClarkSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+16
28.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 16 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
30.3%
Quadree Henderson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+9
30.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 9 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
31.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
31.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
30.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3769% → 75%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
31.4%
Malik Rosier run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
31.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 8 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
30.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
30.7%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+10
31.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 10 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
30.7%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
31.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 20 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
31.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
24.7%
Ahmmon Richards 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
27.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Chris Clark for 20 yds Chris Clark fumbled, forced by Sheldrick Redwine, recovered by MiaFl Jaquan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2274% → 73%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
25.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-3
25.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
50
+5
26.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
26.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
27.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:1728% → 42%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
28.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 8 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-4
30.3%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
28.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
30.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
30.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 3
50
+22
31.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 22 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
32.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 12 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
33.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
31.7%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Weah, Jester, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Jackson, Michael) 7 yards to the MIAMI7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
31.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
31.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.4%
Kenny Pickett 6 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:3561% → 62%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
38.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
38.1%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5660% → 57%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.0%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
40.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 14:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
41.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 2 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
43.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 35 yds, downed at the Pitt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3044% → 42%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
43.6%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-5
45.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Jimmy Morrissey) to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
42.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+5
41.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
42.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1858% → 53%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
41.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
42.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
43.6%
Malik Rosier run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
40.2%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
41.3%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
44.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+10
46.6%
Zach Feagles punt for 37 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 10 yds to the PITTSBURGH 46 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (14 Yards) to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5347% → 47%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
47.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 5 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
48.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 21Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+2
47.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
47.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3353% → 49%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
49.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Rashad Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+3
51.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 41 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:1952% → 79%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
51.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
51.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+29
51.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 29 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
57.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 9 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+9
58.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
59.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+7
59.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
60.1%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.6%
Qadree Ollison 5 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:3624% → 21%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
76.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 14 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
76.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
76.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-5
77.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+16
77.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 16 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
78.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
80.0%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-2
79.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 38 MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2679% → 78%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
79.0%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
79.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Chris ClarkSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
77.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
78.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1319% → 17%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
80.7%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+14
81.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 14 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
80.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
82.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
83.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0283% → 84%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
83.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Trent Harris and Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
82.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
82.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Chris Clark for 5 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+19
83.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 19 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4916% → 12%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.7%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Michael Irvin IISimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-2
86.5%
Evan Shirreffs sacked by Avonte Maddox for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
88.0%
Zach Feagles punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:0286% → 99%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
86.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 13 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
88.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+19
89.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 19 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
91.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 3
50
+11
91.8%
Darrin Hall run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
92.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+9
93.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
93.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-1
94.0%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+2
94.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+22
98.6%
Kenny Pickett 22 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:221% → 4%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
99.2%
Rosier, Malik pass incomplete to Richards, Ahmmon, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Maddox, Avonte) 15 yards to the MIAMI49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
99.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 12 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
95.7%
Braxton Berrios 39 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:114% → 4%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 7 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
95.9%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:2797% → 97%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:47
Qadree Ollison 5 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)
+18.4
TD · Q2 0:35
Kenny Pickett 6 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)
+10.5
TD · Q2 7:03
Ahmmon Richards 23 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com