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PITT

Pittsburgh 14 at Virginia Tech 20

VT
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:32 · Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 5 yds to the VTech 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+30.5Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.1Score differential+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:13: Ryan Winslow pass complete to Nathan Bossory for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +25.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 9:34: Brian Johnson 27 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +8.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:06: Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the Pitt 31 — VT win probability +11.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:23: Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +26.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:02: Darrin Hall run for no gain to the VTech 1 — PITT win probability +10.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:32PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:45VT 4th & 5 at VT 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:29VT 4th & 19 at VT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:15VT 4th & 2 at PITT 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:43PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:44VT 4th & 9 at VT 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:21PITT 4th & 9 at VT 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14PITT 4th & 5 at VT 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:37VT 4th & 9 at VT 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:31PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:58VT 4th & 5 at VT 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:41PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:54VT 4th & 3 at PITT 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−1.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−7.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:13PITT 4th & 7 at VT 15, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−10.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:34VT 4th & 8 at PITT 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−3.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−15.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:14PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:46VT 4th & 1 at VT 29, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−1.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:02PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−5.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:03PITT 4th & 1 at VT 1, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−38.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−37.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:22VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:43PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:13PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:23VT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3883% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.6%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
82.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 1 yd to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
82.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 3 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
82.2%
Jalen Holston run for 14 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.2%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
82.1%
Josh Jackson run for 7 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+37
82.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 37 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
82.2%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.6%
Josh Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4318% → 18%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.3%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon FacysonSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
82.3%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
82.3%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+5
82.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 5 yds to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3582% → 82%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
82.4%
Josh Jackson run for 5 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
82.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
82.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
82.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5418% → 21%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
82.1%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
81.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Darrin Hall for 10 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
81.9%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
82.0%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+25
82.2%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 25 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
81.3%
Maurice Ffrench run for 7 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
81.3%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
81.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 6 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
78.8%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:0780% → 79%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.7%
Josh Jackson run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
79.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Phil Patterson for 18 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
80.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-5
80.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+9
79.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-10
79.8%
Josh Jackson screen pass complete to Cam Phillips for 3 yards to the UP42 (Jordan Whitehead), PENALTY VT holding (Chris Cunningham) 10 yards to the VT45, NO PLAY, clock 03:29.Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-6
78.9%
Josh Jackson sacked by Oluwaseun Idowu for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 19
OWN 39
+8
78.5%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 27 , Quadree Henderson returns for 8 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
78.2%
Quadree Henderson run for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
78.3%
Ben Dinucci pass intercepted Reggie Floyd return for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:2779% → 78%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
78.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 11 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
78.8%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
78.9%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+11
78.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 11 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
79.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+18
79.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
78.9%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
78.9%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+3
78.4%
Josh Jackson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+30
78.1%
Brian Johnson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3222% → 22%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
77.6%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
77.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
78.3%
Ryan Winslow punt, downed at the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4077% → 76%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
77.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
77.3%
Coleman Fox run for 1 yd to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
76.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 42 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1323% → 23%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+20
76.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 20 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
75.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-5
75.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-1
75.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Tim Settle for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
77.4%
Ryan Winslow punt, downed at the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
77.4%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
77.3%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+11
76.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.5%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Josh Jackson pass intercepted Avonte Maddox return for no gain to the VTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4325% → 26%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
74.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+26
74.3%
Quadree Henderson run for 26 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
73.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
73.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 5 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-3
74.4%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
73.8%
Alex Kessman 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 0:3775% → 75%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
75.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Sean Savoy) to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
75.0%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+5
74.9%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
75.2%
Jalen Holston run for 11 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.3%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
76.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Oluwaseun IdowuSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+1
75.2%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
74.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:2722% → 24%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
78.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Chris Clark for 11 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
77.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+3
76.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 3 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2924% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
75.6%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
75.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 10 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
75.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
76.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 9 yds to the VTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0577% → 75%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.9%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
76.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
75.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 31
-3
74.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
74.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 17 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
74.2%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-7
73.6%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Andrew Motuapuaka for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+14
75.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 14 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
72.5%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+5
73.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 5 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+1
73.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
74.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:5275% → 76%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
75.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Phil Patterson for 11 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
75.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
77.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
77.0%
Josh Jackson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
77.9%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.8%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
77.5%
Deshawn McClease run for no gain to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
76.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 11 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
78.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
78.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+3
77.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to James Clark for 3 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
75.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Dennis BriggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:1427% → 56%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
73.2%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+44
73.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Darrin Hall for 44 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
67.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 11 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
67.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
66.9%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
69.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+15
44.3%
Ryan Winslow pass complete to Nathan Bossory for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3950% → 60%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.4%
Josh Jackson sacked by Dewayne Hendrix for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+36
49.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 36 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
55.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
57.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
55.1%
Josh Jackson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
57.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 14 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
57.7%
AJ Bush run for 2 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
57.7%
AJ Bush run for no gain to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
51.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
59.8%
Brian Johnson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0048% → 49%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
49.6%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
50.9%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Greg Stroman return for 12 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:4362% → 90%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
62.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+7
64.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
64.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
63.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+23
90.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0316% → 12%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
84.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 12 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
83.1%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
83.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Tremaine Edmunds for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
86.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2092% → 94%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
91.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
91.2%
Josh Jackson run for 1 yd to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
93.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 53 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 77 yds · 1:2611% → 16%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Brandon FacysonSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
88.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+6
89.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+74
89.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jester Weah for 74 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.8%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.9%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
84.5%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:23
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 23 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
+26.6
TD · Q4 14:13
Ryan Winslow pass complete to Nathan Bossory for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
-25.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com