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WCU

Western Carolina 10 at North Carolina 65

UNC
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreWCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:06 · Ian Berryman punt for 44 yds NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jonathan Smith) to the NCaro 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+29.6Home team on offense+20.7Score differential+19.3Blowout margin+8.9Garbage-time factor+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:19: Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Gibson KICK) — WCU win probability +1.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:01: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 16 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +1.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:50: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 6 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q2 11:15: Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 1 yard Tyrie Adams fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Jonathan Smith , return for 28 yds, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:06: Jordon Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00WCU 4th & 4 at WCU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:12WCU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:01WCU 4th & 6 at WCU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:09WCU 4th & 3 at WCU 16, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:06WCU 4th & 14 at WCU 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:27WCU 4th & 7 at WCU 48, down 35
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:51UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 43, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:41WCU 4th & 11 at WCU 46, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:25UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 49, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:10UNC 4th & 5 at WCU 9, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:10WCU 4th & 4 at WCU 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00WCU 4th & 1 at WCU 39, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:27WCU 4th & 17 at WCU 39, down 51
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:58WCU 4th & 11 at UNC 11, down 58
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:19WCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:17UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:01UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:50UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:06UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:32UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:49UNC Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:27UNC Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:38UNC Touchdown, up 57 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WCUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
92.3%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 7 yds to the WCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+4
92.3%
Tyrie Adams run for 4 yds to the WCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.3%
Detrez Newsome run for no gain to the WCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
92.3%
Tyrie Adams run for 11 yds to the WCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
92.3%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Owen Cosenke for 6 yds to the WCaro 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
92.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
92.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
92.3%
Ian Berryman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
91.7%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
91.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 5 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
91.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
91.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
91.7%
Dazz Newsome run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
91.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by JerMichael WhiteSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
91.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:019% → 11%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
90.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
50
-3
90.9%
Detrez Newsome run for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 47Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
91.0%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete, broken up by Myles DornSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+29
91.0%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 29 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
90.8%
Detrez Newsome run for 20 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
90.8%
Tyrie Adams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Connell Young for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Gibson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:5790% → 90%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
89.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 12 yds to the WCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
89.8%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the WCaro 48Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+16
89.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 16 yds to the WCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
89.9%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the WCaro 23Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+1
89.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the WCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
89.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
89.9%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the WCaro 15Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
89.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 15 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
89.4%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Steffon Hill for 6 yds to the WCaro 22Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
89.3%
Tyrie Adams run for 7 yds to the WCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
89.3%
Detrez Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 28Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+15
89.4%
Tyrie Adams run for 15 yds to the WCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
89.1%
Detrez Newsome run for a loss of 3 yards to the WCaro 40Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
89.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen DaltonSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+10
89.4%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 3
50
+2
89.2%
Ian Berryman punt for 40 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 2 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:0488% → 90%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
88.4%
Carter, M rush up middle for loss of 4 yards to the NC8 (Daniel Riddle), PENALTY WCU face mask (Daniel Riddle) 15 yards to the NC27, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.5%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
88.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+14
88.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Austin Proehl for 14 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
88.9%
Michael Carter run for 22 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST down WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
89.1%
Michael Carter run for 11 yds to the WCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
88.5%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
88.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 5 yds to the WCaro 16Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
90.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 16 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.5%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 4 yds to the WCaro 29Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Terryon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
89.6%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Steffon HillSimilar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
89.8%
Ian Berryman punt for 44 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:2390% → 93%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
89.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 39 yds to the WCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
90.1%
Jordon Brown run for 26 yds to the WCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
90.1%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the WCaro 6Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 6 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:359% → 5%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 31Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+28
95.0%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 1 yard Tyrie Adams fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Jonathan Smith , return for 28 yds, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
95.3%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 15Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 4
OWN 15
-7
95.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 6 yards to the WCU21, out-of-bounds (Smith, J), PENALTY WCU holding (Nathan Dalton) 7 yards to the WCU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+2
95.4%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the WCaro 10Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+6
95.3%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 6 yds to the WCaro 16Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
95.3%
Ian Berryman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:4296% → 98%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+4
96.1%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+31
96.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Austin Proehl for 31 yds to the WCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
96.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the WCaro 19Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+4
96.2%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the WCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
96.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 7 yds to the WCaro 8Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
96.2%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the WCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.2%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Steffon HillSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
98.5%
Detrez Newsome run for a loss of 4 yards to the WCaro 21Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
98.6%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Terryon Robinson, broken up by Myles DornSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+52
98.6%
Ian Berryman punt for 44 yds NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jonathan Smith) to the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 3:3498% → 99%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.4%
Michael Carter run for 14 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.4%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+13
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 13 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
98.4%
Nathan Elliott run for 11 yds to the WCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
98.4%
Jordon Brown run for 15 yds to the WCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 18 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
99.1%
Detrez Newsome run for 11 yds to the WCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
99.1%
Tyrie Adams run for 1 yd to the WCaro 30 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cayson Collins) to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.1%
Detrez Newsome run for 3 yds to the WCaro 48Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Steffon HillSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Terryon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Ian Berryman punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
99.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 9 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 1
OWN 20
-4
99.1%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Tahjai Watt for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 2 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
99.2%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Hunter Lent punt for 46 yds, downed at the WCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
99.3%
Ray Smith pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 6 yds to the WCaro 18Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Ray Smith pass incomplete to Jordan MathisSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+18
99.4%
Ray Smith pass complete to Jordan Mathis for 18 yds to the WCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.3%
Ray Smith pass complete to Detrez Newsome for no gain to the WCaro 36Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.3%
Ray Smith pass complete to Steffon Hill for 11 yds to the WCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.3%
Ray Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 46Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Ray Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Jalen DaltonSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Ray Smith pass incomplete to Jordan MathisSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Ian Berryman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.5%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.5%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
99.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 9 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.5%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 39 yds , Terryon Robinson returns for no gain to the WCaro 14 Terryon Robinson fumbled, recovered by NCaro Tommy BancroftSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.7%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the WCaro 9Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
99.7%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordan Cunningham, broken up by Keion CrossenSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
99.7%
Freeman Jones 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 7 yds to the WCaro 32Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Ray Smith pass complete to Detrez Newsome for no gain to the WCaro 32Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
99.7%
Detrez Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 31Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+41
99.7%
Ian Berryman punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WCaro 42 , M.J. Stewart returns for 41 yds to the WCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
99.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Josh Cabrera) to the WCaro 47Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+2
99.8%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the WCaro 45Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 18 yds to the WCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
99.8%
Nathan Elliott run for 15 yds to the WCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
99.8%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the WCaro 4Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
99.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.8%
Detrez Newsome run for 3 yds to the WCaro 16Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+14
99.8%
Detrez Newsome run for 14 yds to the WCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
Detrez Newsome run for 3 yds to the WCaro 33Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Ray Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+6
99.8%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+19
99.9%
Ian Berryman punt for 41 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 19 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.9%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+14
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jake Bargas for 14 yds to the WCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 44Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+44
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Beau Corrales for 44 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 31Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Ray Smith pass complete to Jordan Mathis for 5 yds to the WCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 3 yds to the WCaro 39Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 5 yds to the WCaro 44Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the WCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 1 yd to the WCaro 47Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Ray Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Tyrone HopperSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-8
99.9%
Ray Smith sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 8 yards to the WCaro 39Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 17
OWN 39
+17
99.9%
Destry Barnwell punt for 37 yds , Austin Proehl returns for 17 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
99.9%
Chazz Surratt run for 59 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 26FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:400% → 0%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Detrez Newsome run for 5 yds to the WCaro 32Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+19
100.0%
Ray Smith pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 19 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
100.0%
Detrez Newsome run for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
100.0%
Detrez Newsome run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+25
100.0%
Ray Smith pass complete to Jordan Mathis for 25 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
100.0%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Kaleb Spry) to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 7:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
100.0%
Ray Smith run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Ray Smith pass incomplete to Connell YoungSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Ray Smith pass incomplete to Steffon Hill, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
100.0%
Joshua Gibson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
100.0%
Johnathon Sutton run for 17 yds to the WCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
100.0%
Johnathon Sutton run for 9 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+6
100.0%
Johnathon Sutton run for 6 yds to the WCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
100.0%
Manny Miles run for 3 yds to the WCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 11:15
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 1 yard Tyrie Adams fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Jonathan Smith , return for 28 yds, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 11:50
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 6 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 6:06
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com