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SYR

Syracuse 10 at Louisville 56

LOU
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreSYR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+2.7LOU 98.6%Lamar Jackson pass complete to ReggieBonnafon for 34 yds for a TD, (BlantonCreque KICK)AWAY 3 - HOME 35 · Q2 0:55
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:55 · Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 34 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior+19.3Home team on offense+27.4Score differential+18.8Blowout margin+7.0Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:31: Cole Murphy 51 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +0.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 14:45: Lamar Jackson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +2.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:01: Reggie Bonnafon run for 33 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +4.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:50: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 72 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +4.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:55: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 34 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:02LOU 4th & 5 at SYR 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:31SYR 4th & 6 at LOU 33, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15LOU 4th & 7 at SYR 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:01SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 21, up 18
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:50SYR 4th & 3 at LOU 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:55LOU 4th & 7 at SYR 34, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:52SYR 4th & 12 at LOU 44, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:03LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 27, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:16SYR 4th & 26 at SYR 16, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 33, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 15, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:10SYR 4th & 4 at LOU 8, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:45LOU 4th & 4 at SYR 27, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:24LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:45LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:01LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:50LOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:55LOU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:52LOU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:43LOU Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:49LOU Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:10SYR Touchdown, down 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3684% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
84.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 29 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
84.3%
Malik Williams run for 46 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.3%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ervin Philips for 7 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+9
84.3%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 9 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
84.3%
Mahoney, Z. sideline pass incomplete to Philips, E., dropped pass, PENALTY SU pass interference (Ishmael, S.) 15 yards to the SU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+4
84.3%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 4 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 21
OWN 40
0
84.3%
Zack Mahoney pass intercepted Jaire Alexander return for no gain to the Lvile 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:4984% → 84%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
84.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 19 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
84.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Syrac 37Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
84.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
84.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+4
84.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:2316% → 17%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
83.9%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 24Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+13
83.9%
Moe Neal run for 13 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
83.7%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Devin C. ButlerSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
83.8%
Zack Mahoney run for 3 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
83.8%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Sean Riley for 23 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
83.7%
Zack Mahoney run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+6
83.7%
Moe Neal run for 6 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
83.7%
Moe Neal run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
82.8%
Cole Murphy 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 2:1683% → 83%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
82.9%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
83.0%
Jackson, Lam. rush right for 12 yards to the LOU49 (Bennett, P.), PENALTY LOU holding (Thomas, Ken.) 10 yards to the LOU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+6
82.8%
Malik Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+13
82.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
83.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
82.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+2
82.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+21
82.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 21 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
83.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
83.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
82.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
82.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
82.2%
Zack Mahoney pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
82.3%
Moe Neal run for 3 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
82.4%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Devin C. Butler, broken up by Dee SmithSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
82.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:3882% → 85%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
81.9%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+9
81.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
82.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
82.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
82.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
82.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 16 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
81.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry, broken up by Rodney WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
84.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.4%
Chris Elmore run for 5 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-5
84.2%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 22Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
84.5%
Chris Elmore run for 1 yd to the Syrac 23Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
84.7%
Zack Mahoney pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
84.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 42 yds, downed at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0485% → 90%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
85.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 5 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+24
85.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Tobias Little for 24 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
85.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
89.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 33 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.0%
Moe Neal run for 6 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
88.7%
Moe Neal run for 12 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
88.7%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Steve Ishmael, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
88.8%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
89.2%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
89.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+2
89.7%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
89.5%
Dae Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
89.1%
Mason King punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
89.3%
Moe Neal run for 5 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
89.0%
Moe Neal run for 2 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+6
89.1%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Ervin Philips for 6 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.9%
Moe Neal run for 1 yd to the Syrac 37Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
89.0%
Zack Mahoney pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+2
89.2%
Zack Mahoney pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for 2 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:1190% → 95%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
90.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+72
94.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 72 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.0%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 1 yd to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
90.4%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
90.5%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 12 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
90.0%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Moe Neal for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 49Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-1
90.7%
Rex Culpepper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 48Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+12
90.5%
Rex Culpepper run for 12 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
90.0%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3596% → 99%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
96.1%
Malik Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-9
95.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ryan Guthrie and Zaire Franklin for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+23
96.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 23 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
96.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
96.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
95.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+34
98.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 34 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16END OF HALF
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
98.9%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 13 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.8%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 8 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
98.8%
Rex Culpepper run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.1%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete, broken up by Trevon YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17INT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
98.5%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (Jamar McGloster) to the Syrac 7Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+6
98.5%
Moe Neal run for 6 yds to the Syrac 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+19
98.5%
Moe Neal run for 19 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.4%
Moe Neal run for 5 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
98.2%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Ervin Philips, broken up by Zykiesis CannonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
98.4%
Rex Culpepper run for 5 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
98.2%
Moe Neal run for 5 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
98.1%
Rex Culpepper pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for no gain to the Lvile 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+54
98.9%
Malik Williams run for 54 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry, broken up by Rodney WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
99.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
99.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+35
99.3%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 35 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.2%
Markenzy Pierre run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
99.2%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Steve Ishmael, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-4
99.3%
Markenzy Pierre run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
99.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
99.5%
Dae Williams run for 16 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.5%
Dae Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
99.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-5
99.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Mason King punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
99.5%
Rex Culpepper sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 25 Rex Culpepper fumbled, recovered by Syrac Cody Conway , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 17
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 20Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 22
OWN 20
-5
99.6%
SYRACUSE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 15Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 27
OWN 15
+1
99.6%
Moe Neal run for 1 yd to the Syrac 16Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 26
OWN 16
0
99.6%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Moe NealSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 26
OWN 16
0
99.6%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 59 yds, downed at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
99.6%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 16 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
99.7%
Malik Williams run for 56 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23INT
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.7%
Moe Neal run for 3 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
99.8%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 7 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.7%
Neal, M. rush left for no gain to the SU38 (Avery, C.J.), PENALTY LOU substitution infraction 5 yards to the SU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+4
99.7%
Moe Neal run for 4 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+13
99.7%
Moe Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Dee Smith) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.7%
Rex Culpepper run for 7 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+5
99.7%
Moe Neal run for 5 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.7%
Rex Culpepper run for 8 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
99.7%
Moe Neal run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+50
99.7%
Rex Culpepper pass intercepted Khane Pass return for 40 yds to the Lvile 0 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (Dorian Etheridge) to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Robbie Bell) to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+7
99.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Malik Williams for 7 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Mason King punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 6 yds to the Syrac 15Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 9 yds to the Syrac 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
99.9%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Devin C. Butler SYRACUSE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Evan Adams) to the Syrac 12Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+1
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 1 yd to the Syrac 13Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 21
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Rex Culpepper run for 2 yds to the Syrac 15Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 36 yds, downed at the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
99.9%
Dae Williams run for 12 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
Dae Williams run for 9 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Dae Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 31Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Dae Williams run for 2 yds to the Syrac 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 29 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Rex Culpepper run for 6 yds to the Syrac 35Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 5 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for no gain to the Syrac 40Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Syrac 45Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+17
99.9%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 17 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+11
99.9%
Nykeim Johnson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
99.9%
Rex Culpepper run for 12 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 5 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Markenzy Pierre run for 1 yd to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Rex Culpepper pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Ervin Philips run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28END OF GAME
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Corey Reed for 10 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Jawon Pass run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 11 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 9 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
100.0%
Harry Trotter run for 3 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+1
100.0%
Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the Syrac 27Similar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+5
100.0%
Tobias Little run for 5 yds to the Syrac 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 72 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q2 11:01
Reggie Bonnafon run for 33 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q2 14:45
Lamar Jackson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com