2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadCIT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreCIT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:09 · Christian Groomes 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:13: Deon Cain 53 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:38: Travis Etienne 6 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:51: Hunter Renfrow 12 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:59: T.J. Chase 13 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:05: Tee Higgins 32 Yd pass from Zerrick Cooper (Christian Groomes Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CIT made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 10:02CIT 4th & 3 at CLEM 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%52% to convertField goal0.8%−0.130% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:08CIT 4th & 16 at CIT 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q2 14:16CIT 4th & 4 at CIT 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 9:44CIT 4th & 22 at CIT 8, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 6:32CLEM 4th & 5 at CIT 9, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%89% to makePunt99.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:54CIT 4th & 9 at midfield, down 31Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%32% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:48CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 14, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q2 0:59CIT 4th & 7 at CIT 43, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 0:10CLEM 4th & 10 at CIT 42, up 31Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.8%30% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:49CIT 4th & 9 at CLEM 44, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 5:00CIT 4th & 9 at CIT 45, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 0:15CIT 4th & 13 at CIT 29, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:13CLEM 4th & 2 at midfield, up 58Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:51CIT 4th & 2 at CIT 36, down 58Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:09CLEM 4th & 11 at CIT 21, up 58Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%74% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:50CIT 4th & 12 at CLEM 13, down 61Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.120% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%85% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 8:13CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:38CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:51CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:59CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05CLEM Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:38CLEM Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:11CLEM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:50CLEM Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCITDrive 1DOWNS11 plays · 35 yds · 4:520% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3799% → 99%
CITDrive 3INT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:321% → 1%
CLEMDrive 4TD6 plays · 49 yds · 1:2299% → 99%
CITDrive 5PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 2:301% → 1%
CLEMDrive 6TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:0899% → 99%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 9 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
99.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 22 yds to the Citad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
99.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 13 yds to the Citad 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:141% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD7 plays · 57 yds · 2:1199% → 100%
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
99.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 10 yds to the Citad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adam Choice for 6 yds to the Citad 35Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+18
99.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 18 yds to the Citad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cornell Powell for 4 yds to the Citad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 9FUMBLE7 plays · -12 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
99.7%
Cam Jackson run for 2 yds to the Citad 22 THE CITADEL Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Citad 12Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
99.7%
Gage Russell punt for 46 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for no gain to the Clem 46 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by Clem Ray-Ray McCloudSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10FG9 plays · 45 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q2 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
99.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 11 yds to the Citad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
99.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete, PENALTY THECITADEL holding 10 yards to the THECITADEL31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+13
99.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 13 yds to the Citad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
99.7%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Myles Pierce for a loss of 6 yards to the Citad 20Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+11
99.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 11 yds to the Citad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q2 2:54
4TH & 9
50
-4
99.8%
Gage Russell punt for 37 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q2 2:14
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+7
99.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 7 yds to the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q2 0:59
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Gage Russell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14TD7 plays · 81 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+39
99.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Tee Higgins for 39 yds to the Citad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to D.J. Greenlee for 10 yds to the Citad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Tee Higgins 32 Yd pass from Zerrick Cooper (Christian Groomes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD2 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:290% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
CITDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q3 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Gage Russell punt for 46 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 8 yds to the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD3 plays · 83 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
CITDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q3 0:15
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+41
100.0%
Gage Russell punt for 41 yds , Will Swinney returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to T.J. Chase for 5 yds to the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 23DOWNS6 plays · 16 yds · 3:070% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24FG8 plays · 13 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Jack Swinney for 2 yds to the Citad 32Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
100.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Kanyon Tuttle for 9 yds to the Citad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
100.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Citad 25Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+4
100.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Jack Swinney for 4 yds to the Citad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CITDrive 25FG6 plays · 59 yds · 2:550% → 0%
CITDrive 26INT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:170% → 0%
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME5 plays · 28 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:59
T.J. Chase 13 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Alex Spence Kick)
+0.3
TD · Q1 0:51
Hunter Renfrow 12 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Alex Spence Kick)
+0.2
TD · Q1 8:13
Deon Cain 53 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Alex Spence Kick)
+0.1