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UVA

Virginia 21 at Louisville 38

LOU
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Lester Coleman punt for 36 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+18.1Home team on offense+1.0Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:52: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 14 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +4.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:48: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 25 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +11.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:51: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +8.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:58: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:57: Dae Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:16UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:17LOU 4th & 6 at UVA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:52UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:14LOU 4th & 2 at UVA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:08LOU 4th & 19 at UVA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:08UVA 4th & 6 at LOU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:52UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:31LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:51UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:58UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:38LOU 4th & 5 at UVA 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:06UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:43LOU 4th & 4 at UVA 16, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:20UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:16LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:52LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:48UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:51LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:58LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:57LOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:48UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
83.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
83.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Chris PeaceSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+28
83.5%
Mason King punt for 43 yds LOUISVILLE Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:4717% → 19%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
83.2%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+17
83.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 17 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
83.2%
Kurt Benkert sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+10
82.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+30
82.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 30 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
82.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
80.8%
Chris Sharp run for 7 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0481% → 82%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.2%
Malik Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
81.4%
Malik Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
82.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 68 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
81.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 2 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
81.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+1
82.0%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
82.1%
Lester Coleman punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
81.4%
Jackson, Lam. deep pass incomplete to Smith, Jay. (Blanding, Q), PENALTY VA pass interference (Blanding, Q) 15 yards to the LOU36, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
81.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
81.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 1 yd to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+5
81.7%
Jackson, Lam. rush up middle for no gain to the VA44 (Brown, A), PENALTY VA offside defense (Brown, A) 5 yards to the VA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-2
81.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
81.6%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, downed at the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
80.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 3
OWN 10
-9
80.6%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 12
OWN 1
0
80.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 12
OWN 1
+28
81.1%
Lester Coleman punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 25 , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 28 yds to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
81.3%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the Virg 25 Malik Williams fumbled, recovered by Virg Micah KiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
79.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 18 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
79.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
79.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-8
79.4%
Kurt Benkert sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 40 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by Lvile Trevon Young , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 17 yds · 3:0681% → 79%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
80.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 8 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
81.0%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
80.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+13
80.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
80.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+2
80.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+8
80.6%
Jackson, Lam. slant pass incomplete to Dawkins, Set. (Moore, C), PENALTY VA pass interference (Moore, C) 8 yards to the VA14, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
80.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-1
80.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 8Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-15
80.0%
Jackson, Lam. slant pass complete to Dawkins, Set. for 8 yards to the VA0, clock 13:19, PENALTY LOU pass interference (Samuel, Tra.) 15 yards to the VA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
79.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+40
79.2%
Blanton Creque 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
79.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre Levrone, broken up by Jaire AlexanderSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
79.7%
Joe Reed run for 1 yd to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+19
80.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 19 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
78.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
78.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 4 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
78.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
79.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 4:5479% → 84%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
78.8%
Dae Williams run for 12 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
78.9%
Dae Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
79.7%
Dae Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
79.4%
Dae Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
79.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Kemari Averett for 10 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
80.0%
Dae Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+16
80.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 16 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dae WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+18
79.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 18 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
79.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
84.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 14 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
83.4%
Benkert, K sideline pass incomplete to Dubois, H, PENALTY VA holding (Ellis, J) 10 yards to the VA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
83.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
84.4%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Virg 25 Kurt Benkert fumbled, forced by James Hearns,Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 20
OWN 25
-3
84.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 38 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 22 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3283% → 82%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-10
83.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 14 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Kenny Thomas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 20
OWN 14
+4
82.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 18 Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Charles Snowden, recovered by Lvile Geron ChristianSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
82.3%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:3617% → 29%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
83.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+9
82.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 9 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre Levrone, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
82.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+10
82.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 10 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
70.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 25 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:3576% → 79%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
76.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 8 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
76.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
79.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 7 yds to the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
74.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+9
75.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
73.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 22 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
72.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 41
0
73.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
74.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+5
74.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 5 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
75.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5575% → 87%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.3%
Malik Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
75.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
75.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 7 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
76.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
77.2%
Jackson, Lam. sideline pass incomplete to Smith, Jay., PENALTY VA holding (Thornhill, J) 10 yards to the VA45, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
77.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
77.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jordan Mack and Malcolm Cook for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
76.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 10 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
78.5%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
78.5%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
87.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+17
86.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 41 , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 17 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:4187% → 95%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
87.1%
Dae Williams run for 20 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.3%
Dae Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+14
87.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre Levrone, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
94.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for no gain to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+9
94.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-5
94.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+2
94.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 43 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 33 Reggie Bonnafon fumbled, recovered by Virg Joe SpazianiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+45
93.7%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Dee Smith return for 45 yds to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:4196% → 99%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
95.6%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
95.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+2
95.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+23
95.0%
Malik Williams run for 23 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
95.9%
Dae Williams run for 6 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
95.9%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:511% → 1%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
98.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 1 yd to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+7
98.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-6
98.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 33 Kurt Benkert fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 49 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for no gain to the Lvile 33 VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Joe Spaziani) to the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:0199% → 99%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.1%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+35
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 35 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.2%
Dae Williams run for 6 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
99.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
99.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 27Similar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+11
99.1%
Malik Williams run for 11 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
99.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+32
99.3%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:551% → 2%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
99.3%
Chris Sharp run for 9 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
99.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Lamont Atkins for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaire Alexander) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
99.3%
PK Kier run for 7 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
99.2%
PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.2%
PK Kier run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
99.2%
PK Kier run for 5 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+13
99.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.7%
Dae Williams run for 5 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
98.7%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
98.7%
Dae Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 25 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q3 6:51
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q3 3:58
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com