2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:04 · Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:43: Sean Savoy run for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — VT win probability +11.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:10: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 60 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +13.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Jalen Holston run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +21.8 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 7:27: Greg Stroman 24 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — VT win probability +31.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:30: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 80 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +37.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7VT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 14:53GT 4th & 17 at GT 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it43.5%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.7%average punt
- Q1 10:20VT 4th & 8 at GT 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call55.3%68% to makePunt54.7%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:18VT 4th & 11 at VT 38, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snapGo for it51.5%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.0%average punt
- Q1 1:32GT 4th & 8 at VT 42, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.8%34% to convertField goal48.4%−0.430% to makePunt48.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00VT 4th & 2 at GT 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.5%54% to convertField goal50.9%−0.590% to makePunt47.9%−3.6average punt
- Q2 13:20GT 4th & 5 at GT 16, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snapGo for it48.4%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.8%average punt
- Q2 11:17VT 4th & 8 at VT 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snapGo for it47.9%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.2%average punt
- Q2 7:41GT 4th & 1 at GT 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt52.4%−1.4average punt
- Q2 3:35GT 4th & 7 at VT 43, up 5Close callPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.7%37% to convertField goal56.8%−0.928% to makePuntTheir call57.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 14:53VT 4th & 19 at VT 11, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snapGo for it37.3%−4.010% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q3 12:04VT 4th & 6 at VT 26, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snapGo for it25.5%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q3 5:02GT 4th & 22 at VT 25, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snapGo for it78.0%−3.37% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%66% to makePunt72.6%−8.8average punt
- Q4 12:58GT 4th & 1 at VT 41, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.3%70% to convertField goal62.9%−7.432% to makePunt63.8%−6.4average punt
- Q4 10:36VT 4th & 9 at GT 44, down 5Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it31.2%32% to convertField goal28.8%−2.427% to makePuntTheir call31.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:20VT 4th & 1 at VT 35, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.3%−6.4average punt
- Q4 5:20VT 4th & 8 at VT 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.0%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt15.0%−1.9average punt
- Q4 1:09VT 4th & 1 at GT 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.0%71% to convertField goal8.5%−12.551% to makePunt6.6%−14.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 5:25GT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.1%97% to makeGo for two48.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:12GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.0%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:43VT Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick43.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call43.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:10GT Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00VT Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.4%97% to makeGo for two28.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:27VT Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick54.9%−1.697% to makeGo for twoTheir call56.5%45% to convert
- Q4 6:30GT Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call76.0%−0.997% to makeGo for two76.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0742% → 42%
Q1 14:53
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+43
41.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 43 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 38 Greg Stroman fumbled, recovered by VTech Greg StromanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG8 plays · 38 yds · 3:2058% → 57%
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+17
42.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Travon McMillian for 17 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:4843% → 47%
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
42.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Jake Stickler) to the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
46.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+15
46.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 15 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
45.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Jalen Holston for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
46.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean Savoy, broken up by Brant MitchellSimilar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 11
OWN 38
+21
46.6%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 43 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 21 yds to the GTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5DOWNS6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5148% → 47%
Q1 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
47.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Mook Reynolds) to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 8
OPP 42
-13
47.4%
Pressley Harvin III run for a loss of 13 yards to the GTech 45 Pressley Harvin III fumbled, recovered by GTech Pressley Harvin IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6DOWNS6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0654% → 53%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+27
46.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Travon McMillian for 27 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 13:20
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+5
47.3%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 52 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 11:17
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+11
49.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 51 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 11 yds to the GTech 21 Brad Stewart fumbled, forced by Anthony Shegog, recovered by GTech Jalen JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD12 plays · 79 yds · 6:0050% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD3 plays · 29 yds · 0:1740% → 52%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
60.4%
Jackson, J pass incomplete to Phillips, C (Austin, Lan.), PENALTY GT pass interference (Austin, Lan.) 15 yards to the GT14, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
48.5%
Sean Savoy run for 14 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
VTDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0444% → 43%
VTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-12
56.8%
Josh Jackson sacked by Victor Alexander for a loss of 12 yards to the VTech 8Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+3
58.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 3 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
59.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD3 plays · 52 yds · 1:2362% → 75%
Q3 12:10
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+60
75.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Brad Stewart for 60 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
73.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 14 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
72.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
73.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16MISSED FG13 plays · 35 yds · 5:5778% → 81%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-14
80.9%
KirVonte Benson run for 1 yd to the VTech 12 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, illegal block (Kenny Cooper) to the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD12 plays · 74 yds · 5:0220% → 44%
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-4
80.6%
Josh Jackson sacked by Brant Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 22Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+26
81.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 26 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+14
77.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 14 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 34 yds · 1:5567% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
GTDrive 20INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:5178% → 47%
GTDrive 21TD5 plays · 83 yds · 0:5247% → 88%
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+80
84.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 80 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22DOWNS15 plays · 42 yds · 5:1225% → 18%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
75.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 5 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
74.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 1 yd to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
74.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 1 yd to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
75.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 5 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+19
78.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 19 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
82.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Ajani KerrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23END OF GAME4 plays · 13 yds · 0:1596% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:30
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 80 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
+37.4
TD · Q4 7:27
Greg Stroman 24 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-31.4
TD · Q3 0:00
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-21.8