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UNC

North Carolina 34 at Pittsburgh 31

PITT
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2017 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:48 · Tom Sheldon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the NCaro 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+20.3Home team on offense−3.9Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:36: Josh Cabrera 35 Yd pass from Anthony Ratliff-Williams (Freeman Jones Kick) — UNC win probability +11.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:30: Freeman Jones 51 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +7.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:38: Darrin Hall 9 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +15.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:16: Darrin Hall 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +18.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:18: Anthony Ratliff-Williams 3 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick) — UNC win probability +35.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:19PITT 4th & 5 at UNC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:07UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:19PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:48UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−2.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30UNC 4th & 10 at PITT 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:27UNC 4th & 20 at PITT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−4.5
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:22UNC 4th & 4 at PITT 26, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−10.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:33PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−6.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:54PITT 4th & 19 at PITT 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:44UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:32UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:14PITT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:58PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:36UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:38PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:16PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:18UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 2FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:2176% → 75%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
76.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (J.K. Britt) to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
75.9%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
75.9%
Darrin Hall run for 13 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
75.8%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
75.7%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+8
75.2%
Ben Dinucci run for 8 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
75.4%
Alex Kessman 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0825% → 25%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.3%
Nathan Elliott run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
75.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
74.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
74.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-3
74.5%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Saleem Brightwell for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
74.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 39 yds, downed at the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4175% → 73%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
74.5%
Ben Dinucci run for 9 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 27
-10
74.5%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
73.5%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
73.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:3827% → 30%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
73.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
73.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
72.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 40 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
72.3%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
69.9%
Brandon Fritts 11 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:0171% → 68%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
70.7%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+11
70.5%
Quadree Henderson run for 11 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
70.2%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
70.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
69.7%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
67.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0732% → 33%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
67.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+2
67.0%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-5
67.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 9
OWN 14
-6
66.7%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Oluwaseun Idowu for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
66.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:1666% → 72%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
66.4%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
66.2%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
66.1%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Darrin Hall for 30 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.8%
Darrin Hall 7 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1130% → 30%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.7%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
69.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
69.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Josh CabreraSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
70.3%
Tom Sheldon punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 2:4771% → 75%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
70.8%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
71.2%
Quadree Henderson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+11
70.2%
Darrin Hall run for 11 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
70.8%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.6%
Darrin Hall 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:0928% → 41%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
72.5%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
72.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+11
72.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
72.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 9 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.6%
Nathan Elliott run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
71.6%
Elliott, Nathan pass complete to Ratliff-Williams, Anthony for 13 yards to the PITTSBURGH49, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UNC33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+19
72.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 19 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Jason PinnockSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
71.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 9 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+4
70.2%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
59.2%
Josh Cabrera 35 Yd pass from Anthony Ratliff-Williams (Freeman Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2063% → 67%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
65.2%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
64.8%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 12 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
65.2%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
64.4%
Ben Dinucci run for 6 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+17
64.0%
Darrin Hall run for 17 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
65.8%
Dinucci, Ben pass incomplete to Clark, Chris (Holcomb, Cole), PENALTY UNC pass interference 15 yards to the UNC5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+66
66.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 1 Quadree Henderson fumbled, recovered by NCaro Cayson Collins, return for 66 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
7 plays · 0 yds · 0:2646% → 49%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
54.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
54.2%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
56.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
51.3%
Freeman Jones 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 54 yds · 0:2454% → 56%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.0%
Ben Dinucci run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
55.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Chris Clark for 15 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+31
55.9%
Ben Dinucci run for 31 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4753% → 71%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
53.3%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
52.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Chris Clark for 11 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
53.5%
Ben Dinucci run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
53.2%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 17 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
54.9%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+12
54.5%
Ben Dinucci run for 12 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
55.5%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+11
54.9%
Darrin Hall run for 11 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
70.7%
Darrin Hall 9 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FG
16 plays · 44 yds · 6:0337% → 46%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
62.6%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
62.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 3 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
61.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
59.6%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+12
59.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 12 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
58.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts, broken up by Saleem BrightwellSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
58.1%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
56.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
56.6%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+13
57.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
55.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Bricen GarnerSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-6
55.3%
Roscoe Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-4
59.1%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Oluwaseun Idowu for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+48
53.7%
Freeman Jones 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0454% → 78%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.2%
Ben Dinucci run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
56.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 3 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
54.6%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 10 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
57.2%
Darrin Hall run for 17 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
57.8%
Ben Dinucci run for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+15
60.0%
Ollison, Qadree rush for loss of 2 yards to the UNC33, PENALTY UNC face mask (Dalton, Jalen) 15 yards to the UNC16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
59.8%
Ben Dinucci run for 1 yd to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+14
59.6%
Darrin Hall run for 14 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.5%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.4%
Darrin Hall 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4829% → 31%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.2%
Elliott, Nathan pass incomplete to Fritts, Brandon, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Briggs, Dennis) 15 yards to the UNC40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
68.8%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
66.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
66.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
64.5%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
64.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 5 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
65.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
68.8%
Freeman Jones 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4174% → 71%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
74.2%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
73.4%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-1
71.8%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+7
71.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:1032% → 73%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
68.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 17 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
64.8%
Jordon Brown run for 14 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
62.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 8 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+16
61.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 16 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.7%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.7%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams 3 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:0641% → 34%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.7%
Ben Dinucci run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
42.8%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
39.8%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 7 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
41.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
50
-9
43.6%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 19
OWN 41
0
37.9%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 19
OWN 41
0
35.9%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 19
OWN 41
+1
33.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22END OF GAME
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:2076% → 95%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
24.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 24 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
20.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-3
22.4%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+23
20.6%
Jordon Brown run for 23 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
12.3%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
9.6%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+10
7.2%
Jordon Brown run for 10 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:18
Anthony Ratliff-Williams 3 Yd pass from Nathan Elliott (Freeman Jones Kick)
-35
TD · Q4 13:16
Darrin Hall 1 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)
+18.9
TD · Q3 9:38
Darrin Hall 9 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com