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MIA

Miami 24 at North Carolina 19

UNC
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:19 · Hunter Lent punt for 68 yds, downed at the MiaFl 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Pregame prior−6.4Home team on offense−25.3Garbage-time factor−12.4Score differential−10.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:58: Christopher Herndon IV 51 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +9.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:43: Jeff Thomas 78 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +9.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:59: Beau Corrales 18 Yd pass from Anthony Ratliff-Williams (Freeman Jones Kick) — UNC win probability +14.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 9:26: Braxton Berrios 5 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +12.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:03: Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNC win probability +26.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 11 of 12MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 13:38UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16MIA 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:15UNC 4th & 1 at MIA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:48MIA 4th & 9 at UNC 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:52UNC 4th & 7 at MIA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:56MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:30UNC 4th & 1 at MIA 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−1.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:00UNC 4th & 19 at MIA 25, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:20MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.1%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:58MIA 4th & 8 at UNC 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%−0.8
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:48UNC 4th & 13 at MIA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:31UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:52MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:10UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:49MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:03UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:52MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 4, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−6.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 6:48MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:59MIA 4th & 13 at UNC 37, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:49MIA 4th & 9 at UNC 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:28UNC 4th & 10 at MIA 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:19UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  23. Q4 4:43MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 22, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:45UNC 4th & 7 at MIA 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 1:58MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:43MIA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:59UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:26MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:03UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.5%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:078% → 8%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
7.6%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
7.8%
Dazz Newsome run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
7.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+15
8.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 50 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1492% → 92%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
50
-2
8.0%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+2
8.2%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 10
50
0
8.4%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 10
50
0
8.5%
Zach Feagles punt for 40 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:559% → 10%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+56
8.6%
Jordon Brown run for 56 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
8.8%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
9.1%
Chazz Surratt run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
9.3%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
9.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 23 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.9%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 9:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
9.9%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:2290% → 89%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
9.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jalen Dalton) to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+35
9.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 35 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
9.6%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
9.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Allen Cater) to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.0%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff Thomas, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
10.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+1
10.2%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+53
10.7%
Michael Badgley 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:4811% → 12%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
11.0%
Chazz Surratt run for 3 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
11.2%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
11.4%
Surratt, Chazz pass incomplete to Corrales, Beau, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (McCloud, Zach) 15 yards to the MIAMI37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
11.6%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams pass complete to Nathan Elliott for 33 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
11.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
12.0%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
12.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
12.3%
Freeman Jones 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5088% → 87%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Braxton Berrios for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.7%
Evan Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
13.0%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 46 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7DOWNS
18 plays · 51 yds · 7:5013% → 17%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
12.8%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
13.1%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+14
13.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 14 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
13.9%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+4
13.9%
Nathan Elliott run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
14.6%
Nathan Elliott run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
14.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
15.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
15.7%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+10
15.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 10 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
16.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 3 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
16.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
17.4%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-8
17.8%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Sheldrick Redwine and Joe Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 18
OPP 24
-1
17.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Johnathon Sutton for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 19
OPP 25
+5
17.0%
Manny Miles pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 5 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:5782% → 79%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
17.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 12 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
17.7%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
17.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
18.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
17.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon Richards, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
18.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+6
18.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
18.7%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
18.8%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
19.4%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
20.7%
Zach Feagles punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:0221% → 29%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.4%
Dazz Newsome run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
21.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
21.7%
Elliott, Nathan pass incomplete to Newsome, Dazz, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Knowles, Robert) 10 yards to the UNC38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
23.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 26 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
24.9%
Nathan Elliott run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+11
25.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
25.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
25.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-3
25.2%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
28.7%
Freeman Jones 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4273% → 82%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.3%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
27.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IV, broken up by Cole HolcombSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
28.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 17 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
27.2%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+51
18.0%
Christopher Herndon IV 51 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2621% → 20%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.8%
Nathan Elliott run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
19.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
19.6%
Hunter Lent punt for 51 yds, downed at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:3380% → 78%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
19.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 15 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
18.7%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-4
18.9%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 36 Malik Rosier fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Malik RosierSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
21.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Michael Irvin II, broken up by Cole HolcombSimilar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
22.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 44 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:4022% → 23%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
21.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 9 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+11
23.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 11 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
21.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
20.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 11 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
22.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Roscoe Johnson) to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
13.4%
Jeff Thomas 78 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2814% → 14%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts, broken up by Shaquille QuartermanSimilar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.3%
Nathan Elliott run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
13.8%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Demetrius Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
13.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1187% → 85%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
12.7%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
13.0%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
13.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-5
14.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jordan Butler) to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
14.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:3015% → 14%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
15.1%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
14.8%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Juval MolletteSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 15
OWN 26
0
14.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Juval MolletteSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
13.9%
TEAM punt blocked by Jonathan Garvin blocked by Jonathan GarvinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0887% → 87%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
12.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
12.8%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+7
13.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 7 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+21
13.0%
Michael Badgley 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:4614% → 31%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
14.2%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-6
14.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-6 Yards) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+28
13.5%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 28 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
16.0%
Jordon Brown run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
30.7%
Beau Corrales 18 Yd pass from Anthony Ratliff-Williams (Freeman Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5775% → 75%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
25.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 11 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
23.1%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
0
22.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Dionte MullinsSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
24.7%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5426% → 29%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
25.7%
Nathan Elliott run for 11 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
28.5%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+14
27.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 14 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
29.5%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
29.1%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Michael Jackson return for no gain to the MiaFl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:4675% → 76%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
25.3%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+42
24.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 42 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
20.6%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
20.8%
Malik Rosier run for 18 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
19.7%
Malik Rosier sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 15
OPP 39
-7
21.1%
Malik Rosier sacked by Jeremiah Clarke and Cole Holcomb for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+9
22.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 9 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
23.8%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
27.7%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Charles Perry return for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0179% → 77%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Travis HomerSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
20.9%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
21.1%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
23.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:1227% → 30%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
27.3%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
27.6%
Nathan Elliott run for 7 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
27.4%
Nathan Elliott run for 4 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
28.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 11 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
30.2%
Nathan Elliott run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
33.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Roscoe JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+8
32.3%
Dazz Newsome run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
34.1%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
34.0%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams pass incomplete to Nathan ElliottSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
31.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
29.7%
Hunter Lent punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:5775% → 92%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
25.5%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+16
25.9%
Travis Homer run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
24.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
23.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Patrice Rene) to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+49
21.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 49 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.0%
Braxton Berrios 5 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
10.5%
Nathan Elliott pass intercepted Sheldrick Redwine return for 17 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28INT
4 plays · -18 yds · 0:5294% → 94%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
6.1%
Malik Rosier run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 19 Malik Rosier fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Malik RosierSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 14
OPP 18
-14
6.2%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 28
OPP 33
+8
6.0%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted J.K. Britt return for 8 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2611% → 8%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
10.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-5
10.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-5
9.6%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 14
OWN 19
0
7.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
7.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 68 yds, downed at the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3294% → 95%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
5.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
5.6%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+7
5.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 7 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
5.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 31TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:369% → 35%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
9.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
8.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
9.9%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
10.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Juval Mollette, broken up by Michael JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
9.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jordon BrownSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+17
7.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 17 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
10.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+12
8.6%
Nathan Elliott run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 32FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
11.9%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 48 Travis Homer fumbled, recovered by NCaro Aaron CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 33FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4528% → 31%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
28.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
25.2%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+20
25.0%
Nathan Elliott run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach McCloud) to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
30.8%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34 Jordon Brown fumbled, forced by Joe Jackson, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 34END OF GAME
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:3887% → 95%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
12.9%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
12.2%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+7
8.7%
Malik Rosier run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
7.4%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-2
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:03
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+26.7
TD · Q3 7:59
Beau Corrales 18 Yd pass from Anthony Ratliff-Williams (Freeman Jones Kick)
+14.6
TD · Q4 9:26
Braxton Berrios 5 Yd pass from Malik Rosier (Michael Badgley Kick)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com