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LOU

Louisville 32 at Wake Forest 42

WAKE
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:29 · Mason King punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Pregame prior−5.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:35: John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +11.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:58: Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +7.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:29: John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 25 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +11.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:21: John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 52 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +8.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:53: Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +6.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:29LOU 4th & 9 at WAKE 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:22WAKE 4th & 9 at LOU 43, tied
    Close callWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    44.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23LOU 4th & 9 at WAKE 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:35LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 13, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−3.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:42WAKE 4th & 6 at LOU 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:22LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:21LOU 4th & 8 at WAKE 26, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:53WAKE 4th & 23 at LOU 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:20LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47LOU 4th & 6 at WAKE 6, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:05WAKE 4th & 1 at LOU 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:10LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:14WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:05WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:35WAKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:58LOU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:29WAKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:21WAKE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:53LOU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:10LOU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:57WAKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:14LOU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:3155% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
44.6%
Traveon Samuel run for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
44.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 13 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-1
44.6%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
44.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
45.8%
Mason King punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:0846% → 51%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+47
46.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 47 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
46.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+4
46.6%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-6
46.6%
Greg Dortch run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+11
46.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 11 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
46.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 14 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
46.8%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
46.8%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+12
46.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 12 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.8%
John Wolford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 4:5150% → 50%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Kemari Averett for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
49.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
49.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
48.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Cameron GlennSimilar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
49.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 6 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
48.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
48.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 10 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
48.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-3
48.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Demetrius Kemp for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+18
48.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
48.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 1 yd to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
50.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
51.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie Bonnafon, broken up by Willie YarbarySimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
49.6%
Blanton Creque 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:1850% → 56%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
49.8%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+8
49.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 8 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+25
50.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 25 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
55.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 32 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5INT
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:0544% → 45%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
55.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
55.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+41
55.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 41 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
53.9%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
53.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
54.6%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Essang Bassey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3859% → 71%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.5%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
58.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+30
57.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 30 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
59.7%
Arkeem Byrd run for 15 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
59.8%
John Wolford run for 11 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
59.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 9 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
59.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 4 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
59.9%
Arkeem Byrd run for 9 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+1
59.9%
Arkeem Byrd run for 1 yd to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-12
69.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+3
70.0%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 3 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 5
50
+6
73.7%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
73.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+8
73.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+7
73.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
73.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck WadeSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
73.7%
John Wolford sacked by Stacy Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+9
72.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
72.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3828% → 35%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Carlos Basham Jr.Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
72.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+8
71.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
71.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 24 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
69.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+9
69.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 9 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
69.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
69.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
65.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2967% → 80%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+39
67.8%
Matt Colburn run for 39 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck WadeSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
69.2%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
80.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 25 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0723% → 20%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
76.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
76.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry, broken up by Jaboree WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
76.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-2
77.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Justin Strnad for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
80.0%
Mason King punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
82.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13FUMBLE
7 plays · 65 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
79.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 12 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
80.3%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+6
80.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 6 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+7
79.6%
John Wolford run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
80.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 12 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
80.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 29 yds Greg Dortch fumbled, forced by Chucky Williams, recovered by LvileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
80.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+18
80.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 18 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
78.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Elontae Bateman for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+2
79.9%
Mason King punt for 32 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 2 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0488% → 96%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
87.7%
Arkeem Byrd run for 2 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
87.7%
Arkeem Byrd run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+13
87.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 13 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
96.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 52 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:285% → 13%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
94.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 19 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
94.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
94.4%
Dae Williams run for 2 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+15
94.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 15 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.7%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
94.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
94.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+11
94.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
93.8%
Malik Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+13
94.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the WFrst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry, broken up by Jessie Bates IIISimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
91.4%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
91.4%
Matt Colburn run for 15 yds to the WFrst 49 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Herron) to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
91.7%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
91.7%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+29
91.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 29 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
91.8%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 14
OPP 33
-5
91.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Justin Herron) to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+6
91.7%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 13
OPP 32
-5
91.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WFrst Matt ColburnSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 18
OPP 37
-5
90.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 23
OPP 42
+16
90.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 31 yds, downed at the Lvile 11 WAKE FOREST Penalty, kick catching interference (Dayton Diemel) to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
91.8%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
91.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-2
91.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Willie Yarbary for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
92.0%
Mason King punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Greg Dortch at the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5794% → 95%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
94.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt Colburn for 5 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-3
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WFrst John WolfordSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
95.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam Serigne, broken up by Dorian EtheridgeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 41
-2
94.6%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Russ Yeast returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 83 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
93.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+24
93.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 24 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
92.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
93.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 11 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
93.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Kemari Averett for 10 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
92.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-7
92.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Justin Strnad for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 33 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+15
93.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 15 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
92.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jaboree Williams and Justin Strnad for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+17
92.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 17 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
92.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 5Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry, broken up by Cameron GlennSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
92.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 6Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie Bonnafon, broken up by Jessie Bates IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 7:0996% → 98%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
96.1%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+7
96.8%
Matt Colburn run for 7 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
96.8%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+4
96.8%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+18
96.9%
Matt Colburn run for 18 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
97.1%
Matt Colburn run for 10 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.1%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
97.1%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
97.0%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
98.4%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:492% → 6%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
97.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 7 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+55
93.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Lamar Jackson pass to Jaylen Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:1396% → 99%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.8%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
99.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 44 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:432% → 7%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+16
98.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 16 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
97.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 26 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 20 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:29
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 25 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 10:35
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q3 10:21
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 52 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com