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DUKE

Duke 3 at Virginia Tech 24

VT
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:31 · Austin Parker punt for 47 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 7 yds to the VTech 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+15.8Home team on offense+13.3Score differential+4.6Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:06: Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +2.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:44: Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 11 — DUKE win probability +1.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:54: Josh Jackson pass complete to Travon McMillian for 27 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST down — DUKE win probability +1.5 pts (now 17%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:15: Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 26 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +5.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:31: Josh Jackson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58VT 4th & 5 at DUKE 23, tied
    Close callWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:16DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:31VT 4th & 1 at DUKE 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:51VT 4th & 8 at DUKE 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:18DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:00VT 4th & 10 at DUKE 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:09DUKE 4th & 13 at VT 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:42VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:10DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:15VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 36, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.6%−0.4
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−2.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:01VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:31DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:30VT 4th & 12 at VT 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:05DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−2.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:31VT 4th & 1 at DUKE 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−1.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−6.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:09DUKE 4th & 14 at VT 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:19VT 4th & 6 at VT 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:35DUKE 4th & 1 at VT 11, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:06VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:15VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:31VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
83.8%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-4
83.8%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+8
83.8%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
83.8%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:0183% → 83%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
83.4%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
83.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.3%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
83.2%
Travon McMillian run for 13 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
83.3%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
83.3%
Josh Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+1
83.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 1 yd to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 5
OPP 23
0
83.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3418% → 18%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
82.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Adonis AlexanderSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
82.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 5 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
82.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Ricky WalkerSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+9
82.4%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 9 yds to the VTech 37 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Anthony Shegog) to the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5882% → 84%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
82.2%
Sean Savoy run for 11 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.4%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
82.3%
Steven Peoples run for 4 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
82.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Steven Peoples for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
50
+21
82.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 21 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
81.9%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to James Clark, PENALTY DU pass interference (Mark Gilbert) 15 yards to the DU14, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY, clock 06:23.Similar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
81.9%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+1
81.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
82.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+15
83.0%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Terrell Edmunds return for 15 yds to the VTech 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1284% → 83%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
83.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
50
+4
83.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
83.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
83.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:5817% → 17%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
83.0%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 9Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+2
83.0%
T.J. Rahming run for 2 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+9
83.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-4
82.7%
T.J. Rahming run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 19 T.J. Rahming fumbled, forced by Mook Reynolds, recovered by VTech Trevon HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3683% → 83%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Jordan HayesSimilar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
83.4%
Sean Savoy run for 2 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
83.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
83.1%
Joey Slye 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:3317% → 16%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, PENALTY DU ineligible downfield on pass (Julian Santos) 5 yards to the DU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
83.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
83.2%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OPP 0
0
82.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, PENALTY DU holding off-setting, PENALTY VT roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY, clock 13:18.Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+14
83.8%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 14 yds to the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3083% → 83%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
83.3%
Deshawn McClease run for 23 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.8%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
83.7%
Deshawn McClease run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
83.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
82.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 yds, downed at the Duke 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:4217% → 16%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
83.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+6
83.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+13
83.6%
Daniel Jones run for 13 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
83.9%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+23
84.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
50
+2
83.0%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 8
OPP 48
-3
83.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+41
83.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 41 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
82.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 11Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
82.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 13Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
84.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
83.6%
Austin Parker 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:2183% → 84%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
83.3%
Sean Savoy run for 17 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
83.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 21 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
84.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
84.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+1
84.2%
Josh Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
83.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4217% → 16%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
83.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
83.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-7
83.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Trevon Hill and Vinny Mihota for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
84.3%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:3983% → 83%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
82.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Travon McMillian for 27 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.1%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
84.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
83.8%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
83.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 yds, downed at the Duke 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:2516% → 15%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
84.2%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
84.5%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
84.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 6Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 6
OWN 6
-3
85.0%
DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Shaun Wilson) to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+10
85.0%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 10 yds to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:1585% → 91%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
85.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 16 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
85.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
91.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 26 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.6%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:5389% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
89.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
89.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
89.7%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
89.2%
Deshawn McClease run for 5 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
89.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 9 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
89.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
89.7%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
90.2%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+4
89.9%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 4
OPP 23
0
89.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Jalen HolstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5711% → 10%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.2%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+7
89.6%
Austin Parker punt for 47 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 7 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0190% → 90%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
90.0%
Coleman Fox run for 8 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
90.4%
DUKE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
90.4%
Coleman Fox run for 3 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-5
90.4%
Josh Jackson sacked by Koby Quansah for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
90.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Travon McMillianSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
89.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, downed at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1410% → 9%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
90.0%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 4Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-3
90.1%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 14
OWN 1
0
90.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 14
OWN 1
0
90.6%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, downed at the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:2392% → 98%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
92.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 6 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
92.0%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
91.7%
Josh Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
92.0%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+15
92.6%
DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Ben Humphreys) to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
92.6%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
92.6%
Josh Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
97.8%
Josh Jackson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:223% → 1%
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
97.5%
Daniel Jones run for 33 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Mook ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
97.7%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+16
97.8%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
97.3%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
98.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+3
98.3%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 9
OPP 23
-5
98.6%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 14
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Tremaine EdmundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
98.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
98.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
98.8%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric Kumah, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
98.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds, downed at the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:341% → 1%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
98.8%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+15
98.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, PENALTY VT pass interference (Brandon Facyson) 15 yards to the DU43, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY, clock 10:58.Similar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
98.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, PENALTY VT pass interference (Mook Reynolds) 15 yards to the VT42, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY, clock 10:47.Similar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
98.8%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+9
98.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
98.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 11 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Duke Daniel JonesSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
98.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
98.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 63 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.3%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
99.2%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+8
99.2%
Josh Jackson run for 8 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.3%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.3%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.3%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
99.3%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+40
99.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dalton Keene for 40 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:15
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 26 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 2:31
Josh Jackson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q1 5:06
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com