2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:08 · Will Spiers punt for 34 yds, downed at the GTech 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:56: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:26: Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Brenton King kickoff for 58 yds , Travis Etienne return for 6 yds to the Clem 13 — GT win probability +2.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:43: TaQuon Marshall run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +6.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:24: C.J. Fuller run for 9 yds to the Clem 37 — CLEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8GT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 11:13GT 4th & 12 at GT 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q1 4:53GT 4th & 8 at CLEM 8, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call18.1%90% to makePunt17.1%−1.0average punt
- Q1 0:18GT 4th & 7 at GT 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it16.8%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q2 13:12CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 18, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it82.2%−1.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.2%average punt
- Q2 10:42GT 4th & 15 at GT 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it15.7%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 8:36CLEM 4th & 9 at GT 45, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snapGo for it83.5%−0.232% to convertField goal83.0%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q2 6:45GT 4th & 6 at GT 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q2 2:52GT 4th & 15 at GT 20, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it8.3%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q2 2:16CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 40, up 18Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:58GT 4th & 7 at GT 48, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q3 10:32CLEM 4th & 3 at GT 12, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.8%50% to convertField goalTheir call93.4%−0.486% to makePunt89.0%−4.8average punt
- Q3 8:34GT 4th & 7 at GT 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q3 6:48CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 38, up 21Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:02GT 4th & 12 at GT 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 4:08CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.5%average punt
- Q3 2:07GT 4th & 4 at GT 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q3 0:36CLEM 4th & 25 at CLEM 33, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%average punt
- Q4 11:10GT 4th & 3 at CLEM 27, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−<0.152% to convertField goal1.3%62% to makePunt0.1%−1.2average punt
- Q4 9:10CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, up 21Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it99.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:22GT 4th & 6 at CLEM 45, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.140% to convertField goal0.8%25% to makePunt0.7%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 12:51CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:56CLEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:26CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:43GT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two3.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3617% → 18%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
82.3%
KirVonte Benson run for 11 yds to the GTech 45 KirVonte Benson fumbled, forced by Kendall Joseph, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD2 plays · 45 yds · 0:1683% → 83%
GTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2817% → 17%
Q1 11:13
4TH & 12
OWN 14
+1
82.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 52 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 1 yd to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FUMBLE8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1983% → 83%
Q1 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
82.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 13 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
82.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 6 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+7
82.9%
Travis Etienne run for 7 yds to the GTech 26 Travis Etienne fumbled, forced by Antonio Simmons, recovered by GTech Step DurhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FG6 plays · 66 yds · 2:3918% → 19%
Q1 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
81.7%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD9 plays · 55 yds · 2:4582% → 84%
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
81.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 9 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
81.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 5 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+11
81.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 11 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
83.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1817% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0083% → 84%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
83.4%
Feaster, Tavien rush for 8 yards to the CLEMSON29, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Greenlee, D.J.) 10 yards to the CLEMSON11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-1
83.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 18Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+8
83.5%
Will Spiers punt for 47 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 8 yds to the GTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:2417% → 15%
Q2 11:15
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-1
84.1%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Tre Lamar for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 36 yds · 1:5785% → 85%
GTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4416% → 15%
Q2 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-2
85.0%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 19 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, forced by Austin Bryant, recovered by GTech KirVonte BensonSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
85.4%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:1485% → 91%
Q2 6:13
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
85.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 5 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
85.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 16 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+7
86.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cannon Smith for 7 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT7 plays · -5 yds · 0:2110% → 10%
CLEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2991% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1210% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16END OF HALF5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1692% → 93%
CLEMDrive 17FG12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1591% → 96%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
90.7%
Tavien Feaster run for 9 yds to the Clem 32 Tavien Feaster fumbled, forced by Anree Saint-Amour, recovered by Clem Tyrone CrowderSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+22
93.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 22 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
93.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 8 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
93.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+7
94.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adam Choice for 7 yds to the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:484% → 4%
Q3 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
96.3%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4097% → 97%
Q3 7:15
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+10
96.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 10 yds to the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:404% → 3%
Q3 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-2
96.7%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Dorian O'Daniel for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4697% → 96%
GTDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:563% → 2%
Q3 2:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
GTDrive 24DOWNS9 plays · 44 yds · 4:212% → 1%
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+10
98.6%
Marshall, TaQuon rush for loss of 8 yards to the GATECH48, PENALTY CLEMSON holding 10 yards to the CLEMSON34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
98.5%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Tre Lamar for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cornell Powell for 2 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
98.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cornell Powell for 3 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Will Spiers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26TD12 plays · 79 yds · 4:201% → 7%
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME14 plays · 29 yds · 4:1297% → 99%
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-17
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the GTech 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ClemSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:43
TaQuon Marshall run for 22 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q2 3:26
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)
+4.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:24
C.J. Fuller run for 9 yds to the Clem 37
+3.3