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FSU

Florida State 3 at Boston College 35

BC
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2017 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:06 · Ryan Green run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:10: Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +10.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:48: Anthony Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +20.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:00: Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Smith, Jeff, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (James, Derwin) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL. — BC win probability +7.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:44: Ricky Aguayo 36 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:00: AJ Dillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +9.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:24BC 4th & 11 at FSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:11BC 4th & 8 at BC 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:11BC 4th & 2 at FSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:12BC 4th & 9 at FSU 30, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:25FSU 4th & 8 at BC 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44FSU 4th & 12 at BC 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:02BC 4th & 7 at FSU 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:32FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:06BC 4th & 5 at BC 48, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:59FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:13BC 4th & 1 at FSU 1, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:29FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:01BC 4th & 3 at BC 28, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:14FSU 4th & 17 at FSU 13, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:20BC 4th & 3 at FSU 21, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:55BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:10BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:48BC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:00BC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:13BC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1MISSED FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:1928% → 29%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
28.3%
Jeff Smith run for 26 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
28.6%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
29.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete, broken up by Jacob PughSimilar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
29.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+49
28.9%
Colton Lichtenberg 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3971% → 70%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
28.9%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+13
29.3%
Cam Akers run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnathan Vickers for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
29.6%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
30.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
30.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:3530% → 35%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
30.3%
Thadd Smith run for 6 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+19
30.5%
AJ Dillon run for 19 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
31.0%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
31.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
31.5%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
31.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
34.6%
Jeff Smith pass complete to Kobay White for 34 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FUMBLE
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:1266% → 64%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.9%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
34.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden Tate, broken up by Noa MerrittSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
34.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
34.8%
Cam Akers pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 47 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
34.1%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
34.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the BC 13Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+7
35.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
35.3%
James Blackman sacked by Ty Schwab for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
35.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the BC 8 Cam Akers fumbled, recovered by BC Will HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:2038% → 39%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
37.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
38.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Thadd SmithSimilar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+12
37.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 12 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
38.0%
Walker, Michael rush for 8 yards to the BOSTCOLL30, PENALTY BOSTCOLL holding 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+3
38.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+12
38.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 12 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+12
38.9%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Thomas, Matthew) 12 yards to the BOSTCOLL39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
40.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
40.7%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
39.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 8
OWN 41
-5
39.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 52 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3760% → 58%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
40.0%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 8
-6
40.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+1
41.5%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+6
42.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 49 yds , Michael Walker returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:0943% → 55%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
43.3%
Jeff Smith run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
43.6%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+8
42.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 8 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
42.1%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
44.0%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
44.5%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+15
44.4%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Callinan, Charlie, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (McFadden, Tarvarus) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
45.3%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
55.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:3549% → 50%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
50.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 33 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
49.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
50.0%
James Blackman pass intercepted Ty Schwab return for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2856% → 77%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
55.9%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+39
56.4%
AJ Dillon run for 39 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
57.4%
Dillon, AJ rush for 4 yards to the FLORIDAST13, PENALTY FLORIDAST substitution infraction 5 yards to the FLORIDAST12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+3
56.4%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
56.9%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
56.7%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.0%
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1128% → 26%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
72.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+5
73.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 5 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
74.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:4881% → 81%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
81.1%
Brown, Anthony pass incomplete to Smith, Jeff, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (James, Derwin) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
80.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
80.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
80.3%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Trey MarshallSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 9
OPP 30
0
80.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:1825% → 30%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
75.4%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
77.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+22
77.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 22 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
76.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Will HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
77.1%
Amir Rasul run for 16 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
75.8%
Amir Rasul run for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
75.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
76.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Amir RasulSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+14
78.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 14 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
79.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+36
69.8%
Ricky Aguayo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
74.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1926% → 24%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
74.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
75.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
76.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+13
76.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 53 yds , Michael Walker returns for 13 yds to the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2480% → 82%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 36Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
81.3%
AJ Dillon run for 12 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
82.2%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
83.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Matthew ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
83.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay White, broken up by Derwin JamesSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+37
82.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 37 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 11 Tarvarus McFadden fumbled, recovered by BCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:5784% → 94%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
83.9%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
84.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
94.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:168% → 7%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
92.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
92.9%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
93.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
93.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Walker at the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:1395% → 98%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
95.4%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jon HillimanSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+8
95.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 8 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
95.5%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
95.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
96.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jon HillimanSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+5
96.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (Emmett Rice) to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.9%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
97.1%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 5
OWN 48
-2
97.6%
Mike Knoll punt for 35 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:594% → 3%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan Izzo, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
96.6%
Amir Rasul run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3698% → 100%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
98.1%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
98.2%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
98.3%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+11
98.5%
Anthony Brown run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.5%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Darius Wade run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.5%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 45 yds, downed at the BC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.6%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-1
99.7%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+2
99.7%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 3
OWN 28
-2
99.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 52 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 26 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (9 Yards) to the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
99.8%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+9
99.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ermon Lane for 9 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Green for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-12
99.8%
James Blackman sacked by John Lamot for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
99.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ermon LaneSimilar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds, downed at the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 6:48100% → 100%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.9%
Ryan Green run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Ryan Green run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Ryan Green run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:48
Anthony Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q2 10:10
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
+10
TD · Q3 11:00
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com