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UNC

North Carolina 7 at Virginia Tech 59

VT
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:20 · Tom Sheldon punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+24.9Home team on offense+24.6Score differential+22.4Blowout margin+10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Garbage-time factor+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:53: Ricky Walker 12 Yd Fumble Return (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +1.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:32: Greg Stroman 91 Yd Punt Return (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +1.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:33: Travon McMillian 4 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:49: Reggie Floyd 69 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:05: Eric Kumah 8 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 12 of 13
  1. Q1 12:29VT 4th & 5 at UNC 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:35VT 4th & 4 at UNC 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:29UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:00VT 4th & 8 at VT 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:32UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:40UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:35VT 4th & 10 at VT 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:27UNC 4th & 22 at UNC 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:25UNC 4th & 3 at VT 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:20UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:10UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:01VT 4th & 9 at UNC 19, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:31UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 3, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:42VT 4th & 13 at UNC 49, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:24UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 11, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:23UNC 4th & 2 at VT 42, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:13UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 15, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:54VT 4th & 4 at VT 43, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:53UNC 4th & 16 at VT 49, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:53VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:32VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:33VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:49VT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:05VT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:40VT Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:01VT Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:05UNC Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:01VT Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:2191% → 90%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
90.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 23 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
90.6%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
90.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+14
90.6%
Josh Jackson run for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
90.4%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
90.3%
Josh Jackson run for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
90.2%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Henri MurphySimilar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
90.1%
Joey Slye 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3710% → 10%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-14
90.0%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 14 yards to the NCaro 16 Chazz Surratt fumbled, recovered by NCaro Chazz SurrattSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 24
OWN 16
-6
89.8%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Ricky Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 30
OWN 10
+13
89.6%
Jordon Brown run for 13 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
89.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5090% → 89%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
89.5%
Josh Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
89.4%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+14
89.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
50
0
89.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
50
+6
89.2%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
89.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
89.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5611% → 12%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
88.8%
Chazz Surratt run for 11 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.7%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
88.5%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+1
88.4%
Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+15
88.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 58 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 15 yds to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2088% → 87%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
88.2%
Henri Murphy run for 3 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
88.1%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-3
87.8%
Josh Jackson sacked by Dajaun Drennon and Aaron Crawford for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
87.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-12
89.2%
Ricky Walker 12 Yd Fumble Return (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT TD
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:2111% → 9%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Cam Dillard) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
89.2%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+10
89.1%
Brandon Harris run for 10 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Facyson) to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
88.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Josh CabreraSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-5
89.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Tre Shaw) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+91
90.7%
Greg Stroman 91 Yd Punt Return (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4310% → 10%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
90.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.4%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
90.4%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+7
90.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 7 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
90.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:5691% → 91%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
90.9%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+33
91.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dalton Keene for 33 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.4%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Eric KumahSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
91.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
91.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Hezekiah GrimsleySimilar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
90.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 53 yds, downed at the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:4810% → 9%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
90.5%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
90.7%
Brandon Harris run for 3 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+9
90.8%
Brandon Harris run for 9 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.5%
Brandon Harris run for 3 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
90.4%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+3
90.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
90.3%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-11
90.4%
Brandon Harris sacked by Tim Settle and Terrell Edmunds for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 12Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 22
OWN 12
0
90.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 22
OWN 12
0
90.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:5492% → 96%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
91.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+9
91.3%
Josh Jackson run for 9 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+12
91.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
91.5%
Sean Savoy run for 11 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
91.6%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+1
91.6%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+9
91.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
91.3%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+6
91.3%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
91.0%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
91.3%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.9%
Travon McMillian 4 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12INT TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:305% → 1%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
95.3%
Brandon Harris run for 27 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
94.8%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+7
95.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
95.2%
Brandon Harris run for 1 yd to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+7
95.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 7 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
95.1%
Jordon Brown run for 13 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
95.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+69
98.9%
Reggie Floyd 69 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:231% → 1%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
99.1%
Brandon Harris sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 17 Brandon Harris fumbled, recovered by NCaro Bentley Spain , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
99.1%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 44 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
98.9%
Travon McMillian run for 11 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
98.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 6 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+30
99.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 15 yds to the VATECH 38 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (M.J. Stewart) to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
99.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (K.J. Sails) to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.0%
Sean Savoy run for 5 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
99.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Braxton Pfaff) to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.1%
Eric Kumah 8 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cayson Collins) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.2%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16INT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-10
99.2%
Brandon Harris sacked by Mook Reynolds and Tim Settle for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 25
OWN 15
+4
99.3%
Brandon Harris run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+18
99.3%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Andrew Motuapuaka return for 18 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:4099% → 100%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.4%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+3
99.4%
Sean Savoy run for 3 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Cam Phillips 8 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:181% → 0%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
Brandon Harris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
99.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Cam Dillard) to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Deon Newsome blocked by Deon Newsome Deon Newsome return for 7 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.6%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-4
99.6%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
99.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
99.6%
Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.7%
Chazz Surratt run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
99.7%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-9
99.7%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Vinny Mihota and Ricky Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 17
OWN 5
-2
99.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Malik Robinson) to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 19
OWN 3
+10
99.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 53 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 10 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.7%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
99.7%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-15
99.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Kalil Pimpleton) to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+6
99.7%
AJ Bush run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by M.J. Stewart at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.8%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
99.8%
Chazz Surratt run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-2
99.8%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+59
99.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 49 yds VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Watts) to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
99.8%
Coleman Fox run for 35 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
99.8%
AJ Bush pass complete to Samuel Denmark for 12 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
99.8%
Coleman Fox run for 7 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
AJ Bush pass complete to Samuel Denmark for 16 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:400% → 0%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Andre SmithSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+13
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Chazz Surratt run for 2 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+43
99.9%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams 43 Yd pass from Chazz Surratt (Freeman Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:49100% → 100%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
AJ Bush run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.9%
AJ Bush pass complete to James Clark for 13 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Hezekiah Grimsley run for 1 yd to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+20
99.9%
AJ Bush pass complete to Coleman Fox for 20 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.9%
AJ Bush pass complete to James Clark for 9 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Coleman Fox run for 7 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
AJ Bush pass incomplete to Samuel DenmarkSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+8
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Myles Wolfolk) to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
99.9%
AJ Bush run for 9 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
AJ Bush run for 5 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Jalen Holston 1 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
100.0%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-9
100.0%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Houshun Gaines for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 17
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 53 yds , Bryce Watts returns for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
100.0%
Coleman Fox run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
100.0%
Coleman Fox run for 7 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Coleman Fox run for no gain to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
100.0%
AJ Bush pass incomplete to Sean DanielSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Juval MolletteSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
100.0%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-5
100.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 16
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Juval MolletteSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryce Watts at the VTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
100.0%
Coleman Fox run for 3 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:33
Travon McMillian 4 Yd pass from Josh Jackson (Joey Slye Kick)
+5.3
TD · Q2 1:49
Reggie Floyd 69 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick)
+4
TD · Q1 4:53
Ricky Walker 12 Yd Fumble Return (Joey Slye Kick)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com