2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:58 · TaQuon Marshall sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 13 yards to the WFrst 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:57: John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 15 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +7.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:02: John Wolford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:55: TaQuon Marshall 49 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +16.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 4:35: Qua Searcy 42 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +19.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:55: KirVonte Benson run for 11 yds for a TD, (TEAM PAT BLOCKED) — GT win probability +18.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 6:50GT 4th & 4 at WAKE 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snapGo for it61.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%−0.193% to makePunt59.6%−1.3average punt
- Q1 6:43WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it37.4%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q1 5:58GT 4th & 7 at WAKE 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.7%37% to convertField goal61.7%−<0.149% to makePunt61.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:57GT 4th & 10 at GT 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it51.2%−1.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.0%average punt
- Q3 14:51WAKE 4th & 22 at WAKE 10, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snapGo for it56.2%−2.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.3%average punt
- Q3 12:55WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 44, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it48.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%−3.5average punt
- Q3 11:17GT 4th & 8 at GT 5, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it48.8%−3.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q3 7:31WAKE 4th & 4 at GT 11, up 2Close callKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snapGo for it48.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call48.1%−0.687% to makePunt33.6%−15.1average punt
- Q3 4:25WAKE 4th & 4 at GT 34, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.1%48% to convertField goal37.0%−2.147% to makePunt35.6%−3.6average punt
- Q4 11:06WAKE 4th & 3 at GT 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%52% to convertField goal17.3%−3.034% to makePunt16.9%−3.4average punt
- Q4 5:48GT 4th & 10 at WAKE 30, up 7Close callWent for it · 89.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.2%−0.929% to convertField goal89.1%56% to makePunt87.0%−2.1average punt
- Q4 3:49WAKE 4th & 1 at GT 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%71% to convertField goal12.8%−3.268% to makePunt5.4%−10.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 5WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 0:12WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.4%97% to makeGo for two42.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:28GT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.5%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:57WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.6%97% to makeGo for two46.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:02WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.1%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:55GT Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick55.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call55.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:35GT Touchdown, up 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick65.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call65.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:55GT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.3%−0.445% to convert
- Q4 1:57GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%−0.597% to makeGo for two96.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1FG18 plays · 70 yds · 8:0352% → 54%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
52.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 14 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+12
52.3%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 12 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
53.2%
Marshall, T. pass incomplete to Stewart, B., PENALTY WF pass interference (Bassey, E) 6 yards to the WF2, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Clinton Lynch, broken up by Jessie Bates IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
54.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cade Carney for 1 yd to the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
WAKEDrive 4TD7 plays · 54 yds · 2:2647% → 52%
Q1 0:37
2ND & 3
OPP 0
+15
52.7%
Wolford, J pass incomplete to Dortch, G, PENALTY GT pass interference (Austin, Law.) 15 yards to the GT6, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY, PENALTY GT roughing passer declined.Similar
Q1 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
48.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4451% → 59%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
50.0%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 18 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2544% → 55%
Q2 9:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
55.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 11 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+23
54.5%
Arkeem Byrd run for 8 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Victor Alexander) to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
53.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 17 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
44.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 15 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
WAKEDrive 8TD10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3354% → 69%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
44.7%
Wolford, J rush for 5 yards to the GT46, PENALTY GT substitution infraction 5 yards to the GT46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
44.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 5 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
42.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 16 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9FG13 plays · 53 yds · 1:0234% → 41%
Q2 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
34.5%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to KirVonte Benson for 7 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
35.5%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to J.J. Green for 17 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
35.6%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (KirVonte Benson) to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
OPP 41
-6
35.0%
TaQuon Marshall sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+25
33.9%
TaQuon Marshall run for 7 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (Jaboree Williams) to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -12 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
36.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Justin Herron) to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-17
36.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the WFrst 2 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WFrst John WolfordSimilar
Q3 14:51
4TH & 22
OWN 10
+11
38.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 50 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 11 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD1 play · 49 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
GTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 11:17
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+2
47.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 56 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14FG6 plays · 48 yds · 2:2054% → 61%
GTDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5642% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
GTDrive 17TD12 plays · 57 yds · 5:5264% → 86%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+10
67.2%
Qua Searcy run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (Paris Black) to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 35 yds · 0:4921% → 22%
Q4 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
78.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez Lewis, broken up by Step DurhamSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
79.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 12 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
77.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 12 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
77.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck Wade, broken up by A.J. GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5687% → 88%
Q4 5:48
4TH & 10
OPP 30
0
88.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass incomplete to Qua Searcy, broken up by Cameron GlennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5018% → 16%
GTDrive 21TD4 plays · 76 yds · 1:4792% → 99%
WAKEDrive 22INT8 plays · 52 yds · 0:283% → 4%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
97.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 8 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+6
97.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 6 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
97.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 28 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
96.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 10 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+27
96.4%
John Wolford pass intercepted Corey Griffin return for 27 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · 13 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:35
Qua Searcy 42 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+19.2
TD · Q4 11:55
KirVonte Benson run for 11 yds for a TD, (TEAM PAT BLOCKED)
+18.9
TD · Q3 12:55
TaQuon Marshall 49 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+16.3