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LOU

Louisville 31 at Florida State 28

FSU
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:37 · Logan Tyler punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+0.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:04: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 26 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +13.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:04: Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +17.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:11: Dae Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +17.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:58: James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +32.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Blanton Creque 34 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +32.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:28LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:18FSU 4th & 10 at LOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17LOU 4th & 5 at FSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:37FSU 4th & 20 at LOU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:40LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:47FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:35FSU 4th & 3 at LOU 27, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−8.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:45FSU 4th & 3 at LOU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−2.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:16LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 27, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:38LOU 4th & 1 at FSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−8.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−28.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:37LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:30FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:04LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:04LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:11LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:21FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:58FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1330% → 32%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
70.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
70.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
69.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
50
+5
69.7%
Dae Williams run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+23
69.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 23 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
68.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 22 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:5569% → 70%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
68.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
68.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+37
68.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 37 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
68.4%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
68.2%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
67.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+10
67.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
67.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Alec Eberle) to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
67.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 7 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5832% → 31%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
68.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+6
68.7%
Mason King punt for 53 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:0268% → 68%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
68.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
68.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+30
68.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 30 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
69.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
68.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
68.0%
Logan Tyler punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:5332% → 34%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
67.9%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+15
67.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
66.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+25
66.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 25 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
65.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-4
64.8%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+5
65.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 5
OPP 32
0
66.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:3068% → 66%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
67.8%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
68.8%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
68.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 17 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
69.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+3
68.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-12
68.6%
James Blackman sacked by Trevon Young for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
66.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:4534% → 35%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
64.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
64.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
64.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
62.5%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-2
63.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+9
64.9%
Mason King punt for 56 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4366% → 64%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
66.1%
Amir Rasul run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-5
66.0%
James Blackman sacked by Henry Famurewa for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+7
64.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
64.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds , Russ Yeast returns for no gain to the Lvile 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3238% → 26%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
62.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+34
73.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Matthew Thomas, recovered by FlaSt Matthew Thomas , return for 34 yds, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5625% → 43%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
73.3%
Dae Williams run for 4 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
73.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dae Williams for 7 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
72.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
72.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
71.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Brian Burns and Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+15
73.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
70.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles StandberrySimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
56.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 26 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:3765% → 65%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
66.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
65.1%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
65.0%
James Blackman pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for 22 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12DOWNS
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+45
55.6%
Blanton Creque 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 5:1565% → 65%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
66.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
65.2%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
65.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-1
67.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
65.8%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
67.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 14 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
68.0%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+6
67.9%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
66.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
64.8%
Ricky Aguayo 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2140% → 63%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
60.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
58.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
58.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+51
57.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 51 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
54.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
43.6%
James Blackman pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for 22 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3463% → 81%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
37.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
36.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
35.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
36.7%
Dae Williams run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+25
18.9%
Dae Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
19 plays · 74 yds · 6:3924% → 31%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
24.3%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
23.7%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+8
23.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 8 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
24.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 12 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
24.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+11
21.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 11 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
22.1%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
20.4%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+6
20.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 6 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
21.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+16
20.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 16 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
20.5%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
20.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Mavin SaundersSimilar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
19.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+8
18.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Roughing Passer (James Hearns) to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 0
OWN 7
0
31.2%
Nyqwan Murray 0 Yd Fumble Return (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5971% → 72%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
28.8%
Dae Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
28.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
27.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+3
27.8%
Mason King punt for 40 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0731% → 66%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+22
30.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 22 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ryan IzzoSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
31.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+10
32.8%
Cam Akers run for 10 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
33.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 16 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
65.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1247% → 55%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-6
49.6%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
54.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
45.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+12
44.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
43.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
40.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
42.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
45.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:1557% → 65%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
57.2%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
59.0%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
58.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 18 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
63.1%
James Blackman run for 21 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
64.8%
James Blackman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 24 James Blackman fumbled, recovered by Lvile Henry FamurewaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 1:5351% → 96%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
48.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+15
44.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 15 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
42.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 9 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
39.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+15
39.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
36.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 13 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
36.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-5
37.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Kenny Thomas) to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+34
4.4%
Blanton Creque 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:05
Blanton Creque 34 yd FG GOOD
-32.9
TD · Q4 8:58
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+32.6
TD · Q3 5:11
Dae Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com