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PITT

Pittsburgh 24 at Duke 17

DUKE
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Austin Parker punt for 46 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 5 yds to the Pitt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior+27.4Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:33: Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +15.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:28: Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +15.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:10: Darrin Hall run for 92 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +15.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:48: Darrin Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +32.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 6 — PITT win probability +18.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20PITT 4th & 3 at DUKE 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:08DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:54PITT 4th & 21 at DUKE 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:36DUKE 4th & 7 at PITT 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:30PITT 4th & 1 at DUKE 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−1.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:45PITT 4th & 13 at DUKE 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:45DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15PITT 4th & 15 at DUKE 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:55DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:18PITT 4th & 1 at DUKE 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−5.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:20DUKE 4th & 11 at PITT 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:00DUKE 4th & 11 at PITT 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−4.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−14.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:41PITT 4th & 6 at DUKE 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−10.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:23PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:33DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:28DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:10PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:48PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
77.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
77.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+5
77.4%
Austin Parker punt for 46 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.7%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
76.6%
Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
76.6%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.6%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
76.6%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+2
76.6%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
76.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
76.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
76.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Shane RoySimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+13
75.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 13 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
76.0%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Jones, D pass complete to Taylor, C for 9 yards to the DU36, out-of-bounds, PENALTY DU illegal touching (Taylor, C) 0 yards to the DU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
75.7%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds, downed at the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
73.0%
Darrin Hall run for 79 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
73.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
73.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+13
73.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
73.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Avonte Maddox for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 37 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Pitt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
71.4%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Ben Humphreys for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+1
71.5%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
71.6%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 11
OPP 38
-10
72.1%
Winslow, R. punt 33 yards to the DU5, downed, PENALTY UP holding (Adomitis, C.) 10 yards to the DU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 21
OPP 48
+19
72.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 42 , T.J. Rahming returns for 19 yds to the Duke 29 PITTSBURGH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 5:3372% → 72%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
71.9%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
72.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
72.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
72.4%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
72.3%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
72.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+11
72.7%
Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
72.7%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+3
72.7%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Pitt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.3%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
69.7%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-5
69.1%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 7Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
71.8%
Austin Parker 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8MISSED FG
20 plays · 61 yds · 9:4529% → 35%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
71.1%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
71.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 9 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
70.8%
Ben Dinucci run for 7 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
70.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Darrin Hall for 4 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.5%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
70.7%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
70.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.7%
Ben Dinucci run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-1
69.6%
Ben Dinucci run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+6
69.8%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
70.3%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
69.5%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-1
69.5%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+11
69.7%
Ben Dinucci run for 11 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
69.3%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
69.3%
Ben Dinucci run for 2 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-10
69.6%
DiNucci, B. rush for 3 yards to the DU16 (Saxton II, A), PENALTY UP holding 10 yards to the DU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
69.9%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
64.7%
Alex Kessman 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
65.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-1
65.6%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:2538% → 39%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.2%
Quadree Henderson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
62.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Maurice Ffrench) to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+12
63.2%
A.J. Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
61.4%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.6%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+28
61.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 28 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
59.8%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Edgar Cerenord for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
58.4%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 15
OPP 37
0
59.4%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 15
OPP 37
+55
60.8%
Alex Kessman 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:1563% → 67%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
63.4%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+24
65.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 24 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+49
66.5%
Austin Parker 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 17 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
60.3%
Maurice Ffrench run for 5 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
60.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
60.1%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
60.0%
Quadree Henderson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
59.0%
Ben Dinucci run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-3
59.3%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+5
61.5%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
59.1%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Jordan Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
61.5%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
62.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 31Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-5
60.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Matt Flanagan) to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+4
60.5%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:4658% → 74%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
58.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 11 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
73.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.4%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for no gain to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for no gain to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
72.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 17 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
69.3%
Jordan Whitehead run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
70.6%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+3
71.5%
Ben Dinucci run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+5
71.8%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+6
70.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 6 yds to the Duke 49 DUKE Penalty, illegal block (Dylan Singleton) to the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
70.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
70.8%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
70.8%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
69.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+20
68.7%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Rafael Araujo-Lopes returns for 20 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
66.2%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
65.8%
A.J. Davis run for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
65.6%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
68.0%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:4873% → 88%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+18
72.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 18 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
87.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 39 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
70.9%
Darrin Hall run for 92 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:4074% → 74%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-1
73.7%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
75.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Saleem BrightwellSimilar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
74.3%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 3:2026% → 69%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
73.8%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+5
72.9%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
72.4%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+25
72.9%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 25 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
70.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 49 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
63.4%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
31.1%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:4844% → 46%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
43.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 22 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
48.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 12 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
49.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 22 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
52.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
52.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-13
49.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Dane Jackson for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 23
OPP 32
+15
43.3%
Jones, D pass incomplete, PENALTY UP pass interference (Jackson, D.) 15 yards to the UP17, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
54.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-1
54.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 11
OPP 18
0
50.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Amir WattsSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
46.1%
Austin Parker 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 6:1964% → 94%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
35.8%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
32.7%
Quadree Henderson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
33.5%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
32.7%
Quadree Henderson run for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+20
34.0%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 20 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
28.9%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
29.1%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+5
28.6%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
27.6%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
12.9%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
14.6%
Ben Dinucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+5
17.9%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
6.0%
Alex Kessman 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:0014% → 25%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
13.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 22 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
16.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
16.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Saleem Brightwell) to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
18.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
17.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Scott Bracey for 10 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
22.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
24.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
24.6%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Jordan Whitehead return for no gain to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0394% → 94%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 6
-2
5.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:48
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
-32.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 6
-18.5
TD · Q3 8:33
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 58 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com