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BC

Boston College 41 at Virginia 10

UVA
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:42 · Lester Coleman punt for 47 yds, downed at the BC 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense−25.5Score differential−12.1Pregame prior+8.6Garbage-time factor−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:57: Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 76 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +8.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:35: Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 10 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +9.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:42: Joe Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +7.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:42: Colton Lichtenberg 36 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +10.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:11: Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +8.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51BC 4th & 4 at UVA 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55UVA 4th & 8 at BC 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:59BC 4th & 23 at BC 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:50BC 4th & 2 at UVA 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.4%−2.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:42BC 4th & 7 at UVA 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:44BC 4th & 1 at UVA 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−3.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−11.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53UVA 4th & 7 at BC 20, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47BC 4th & 3 at BC 35, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:55UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:27BC 4th & 3 at BC 24, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:10BC 4th & 2 at UVA 12, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:49UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:04BC 4th & 3 at BC 27, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:16BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:57BC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:35BC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:11BC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:30BC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
69.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
69.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 7 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
69.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
69.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 54 yds, downed at the BC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2FG
15 plays · 85 yds · 5:4030% → 32%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
69.7%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
69.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+15
69.7%
Anthony Brown run for 15 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
69.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 10 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
69.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
69.5%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+9
69.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 9 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
69.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 28 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
69.2%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-1
69.2%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+7
69.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 7 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
69.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
69.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+2
69.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 2 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
67.6%
Colton Lichtenberg 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.8%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Reed, J, PENALTY BC personal foul (Merritt,N) 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
68.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
68.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-3
67.7%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Kevin Bletzer and Wyatt Ray for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+53
67.3%
Lester Coleman punt for 53 yds , Michael Walker returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:0732% → 36%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
67.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
67.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+10
67.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 10 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
63.7%
Thadd Smith run for 76 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
63.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
63.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 52 yds, downed at the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:2537% → 45%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
63.0%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
63.1%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+76
54.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 76 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:0255% → 53%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.0%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
55.0%
De'Vante Cross run for 13 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
55.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 17 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
56.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
53.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
53.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Joe Reed, broken up by Will HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
53.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0949% → 64%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
50.6%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
50.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
51.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 13 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+46
50.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Michael Walker for 46 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
49.5%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
49.5%
Anthony Brown run for no gain to the Virg 15 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by BC Anthony BrownSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+6
45.6%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
45.4%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
36.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 10 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
40.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 6 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
40.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
41.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
41.2%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Will Harris return for no gain to the BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
33.9%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
33.9%
Levy,T rush for 12 yards to the VA43 (Nelson, B), PENALTY BC holding (Smith,T) 10 yards to the BC35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 20
OWN 35
-5
34.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 25
OWN 30
+2
35.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 23
OWN 32
+10
35.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 37 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 10 yds to the Virg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
16 plays · 59 yds · 7:0737% → 39%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
36.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 8 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
31.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 1
50
+4
30.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
35.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
35.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-4
34.5%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Wyatt Ray for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 36Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+11
34.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
35.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
34.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
30.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
35.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 14Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+12
35.7%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Zaccheaus, O, PENALTY BC pass interference (Barlow,B) 12 yards to the BC2, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.0%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the BC 2Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
31.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the BC 1Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.5%
Joe Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
28.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:1869% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
31.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 14 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
30.1%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
29.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
29.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+7
30.2%
Anthony Brown run for 7 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+14
28.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
25.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+2
25.5%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
25.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for no gain Travis Levy fumbled, forced by Chris Peace, recovered by BCSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+36
15.2%
Colton Lichtenberg 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
20.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 19 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
21.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Ray SmithSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
21.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 11 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
22.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
22.1%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Will Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 20
OWN 45
0
20.7%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 20
OWN 45
0
20.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 47 yds, downed at the BC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 6:3385% → 98%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
15.1%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
14.4%
Thadd Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+10
14.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 10 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
14.2%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 25Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
14.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
12.8%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
12.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+29
12.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 29 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
11.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
11.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
11.9%
Anthony Brown run for 8 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+15
12.5%
AJ Dillon run for 15 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
11.3%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+7
11.3%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
2.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:183% → 5%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Taj-Amir TorresSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
2.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 20 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
2.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 17 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
3.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 15 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
3.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
3.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
2.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
4.8%
A.J. Mejia 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
3.4%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
3.5%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-1
3.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+3
3.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 43 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 3 yds to the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
3.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
3.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 9 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
3.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 60 yds , Michael Walker returns for 7 yds to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
2.4%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-10
2.4%
Dillon,A rush for 6 yards to the BC26 (Blanding, Q;Blount, J), PENALTY BC clipping (Monteiro,A) 10 yards to the BC10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+9
2.4%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+5
2.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
2.5%
Mike Knoll punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+40
0.3%
Lindell Stone pass intercepted for a TD John Lamot return for 40 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Daniel Hamm run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
0.3%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Darius WadeSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
0.3%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 11 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
0.3%
Lindell Stone pass intercepted Hamp Cheevers return for 27 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
0.3%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
0.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
0.3%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
0.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+15
0.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 15 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
0.2%
PK Kier run for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Chris SharpSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Hamp CheeversSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
0.2%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
0.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.2%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
0.2%
Richard Wilson run for 3 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Richard Wilson run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+6
0.1%
Mike Knoll punt for 34 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.1%
Joe Reed run for 8 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+4
0.1%
PK Kier run for 4 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 10:42
Colton Lichtenberg 36 yd FG GOOD
-10.5
TD · Q2 11:35
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 10 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q3 2:11
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com