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UVA

Virginia 20 at North Carolina 14

UNC
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:07 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:46: Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +14.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 9:52: Michael Carter run for 47 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +19.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:25: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 81 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +21.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:07: Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 03:07 — UVA win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:56: Brandon Harris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48 — UNC win probability +14.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:28UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:41UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:25UNC 4th & 4 at UVA 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:25UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:13UVA 4th & 5 at UNC 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:58UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:42UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−2.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:41UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:56UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:52UVA 4th & 19 at UNC 33, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:04UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14UVA 4th & 4 at UNC 9, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−15.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:14UNC 4th & 6 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:32UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−3.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:11UNC 4th & 9 at UVA 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−6.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−6.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 0:57UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:46UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:52UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:25UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
37.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
37.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
37.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
37.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
37.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
37.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+31
37.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 62 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for 31 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
38.4%
Brandon Harris run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
38.6%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
38.5%
Johnathon Sutton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
38.3%
Hunter Lent punt for 50 yds, downed at the Virg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
39.0%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
38.9%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 2
OWN 15
0
39.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
39.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5040% → 40%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
40.2%
Brandon Harris run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+9
40.4%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
40.4%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
40.4%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
40.2%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
40.4%
Freeman Jones 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
18 plays · 78 yds · 8:0860% → 60%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
39.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 10 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
39.7%
Chris Sharp run for 7 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
39.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 2 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
39.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
39.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 3
50
+3
39.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
39.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 15 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
38.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+13
39.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 13 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
38.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 17
OPP 26
0
39.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 17
OPP 26
+16
39.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
39.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
38.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 7 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.8%
De'Vante Cross run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
40.3%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
39.7%
A.J. Mejia 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6INT
15 plays · 48 yds · 4:2941% → 44%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
40.6%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 16 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 12
OWN 8
+5
40.5%
Sutton, J rush right for 2 yards to the NC10 (Peace, C), PENALTY VA offside defense (Brown, A) 5 yards to the NC13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 7
OWN 13
0
40.7%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
40.5%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+6
39.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 6 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
40.7%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
40.8%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+9
39.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 9 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
40.9%
Brandon Harris run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+17
42.3%
Brandon Harris run for 2 yds to the Virg 43 Brandon Harris fumbled, forced by Chris Peace, for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Peace) to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
42.6%
Brandon Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+4
41.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jake Bargas for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+36
43.8%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Bryce Hall return for 36 yds to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1260% → 60%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.9%
Daniel Hamm run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
39.9%
Benkert, K middle pass incomplete to Levrone, A, PENALTY NC pass interference (Holcomb, C) 10 yards to the NC45, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
39.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Richard Burney for 6 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
39.5%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
39.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
40.4%
Lester Coleman punt for 34 yds, downed at the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
41.7%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+6
41.6%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
40.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
40.5%
Hunter Lent punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 33 , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:4559% → 73%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
41.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+10
41.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
39.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+4
40.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+12
40.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 12 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
39.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
39.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 8 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
39.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
40.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
38.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre Levrone, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+24
38.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 14 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Cole Holcomb) to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
27.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 10 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
29.6%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
29.7%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1429% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.6%
Brandon Harris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+56
29.6%
Michael Carter run for 56 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
32.1%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.4%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
39.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
40.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 19
-6
41.3%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Aaron Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
42.5%
Lester Coleman punt for 50 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
42.1%
Brandon Harris run for 9 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
44.5%
Brandon Harris sacked by Chris Peace and Juwan Moye for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+8
39.9%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Chris Moore return for 8 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.6%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
39.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
41.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
42.8%
Lester Coleman punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
62.2%
Michael Carter run for 47 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
57.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 14 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
55.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 25 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
52.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
51.6%
Kurt Benkert run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
51.6%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-5
51.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Doni Dowling) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
52.0%
Daniel Hamm run for no gain to the NCaro 25 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-7
53.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 33 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by Virg Jordan Ellis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 19
OPP 33
0
58.7%
Lester Coleman punt for 25 yds, downed at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
61.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 12 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
61.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
61.6%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
61.0%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
60.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
1 play · 81 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+81
38.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 81 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
40.7%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+12
40.9%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Brenton Nelson return for 12 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:2266% → 72%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
34.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 9 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
33.8%
Chris Sharp run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
33.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 7 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
33.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-9
35.1%
Ellis, J rush right for 6 yards to the NC0, clock 14:54, PENALTY VA holding (Butts, E) 9 yards to the NC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
35.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
27.8%
A.J. Mejia 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
34.0%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
35.0%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
37.7%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Michael Carter for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
36.8%
Johnathon Sutton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.6%
Brandon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
35.7%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 6
50
0
37.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 6
50
0
33.8%
Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22FUMBLE
17 plays · 60 yds · 8:2573% → 89%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
27.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+12
27.5%
Joe Reed run for 12 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
26.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 15 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
24.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
22.9%
Daniel Hamm run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
23.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-1
23.1%
Chris Sharp run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 49 Chris Sharp fumbled, forced by Cayson Collins,Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+11
25.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 11 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+2
25.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
23.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
22.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
23.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
22.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-15
22.3%
Benkert, K sideline pass incomplete to Hamm, D, QB hurry by Cater, A, PENALTY VA illegal block (Peacock, J) 15 yards to the NC35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 23
OPP 35
+6
22.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 17
OPP 29
+13
10.9%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 40 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by NCaro Cayson Collins , return for 0 yards , return for 13 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:4525% → 16%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
25.4%
Brandon Harris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
27.8%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
50
+12
27.1%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
28.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
28.5%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
26.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Dazz Newsome for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 9
OPP 37
-12
16.4%
Brandon Harris sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-2
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:25
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 81 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q3 9:52
Michael Carter run for 47 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+19.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:56
Brandon Harris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com