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FSU

Florida State 17 at Duke 10

DUKE
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Ermon Lane
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:45: Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23 — DUKE win probability +8.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:12: Brittain Brown 9 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick) — DUKE win probability +21.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:01: Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line — DUKE win probability +13.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:23: Cam Akers 42 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +29.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:13: Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42 — FSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:47DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:57DUKE 4th & 4 at FSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−4.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:40DUKE 4th & 4 at FSU 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−5.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:01FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:21FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:34DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:54FSU 4th & 6 at DUKE 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−11.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:11DUKE 4th & 4 at FSU 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:02DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:49FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−3.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:24DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 19, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:32FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00DUKE 4th & 8 at FSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−7.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:31FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:12DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:23FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 6:1669% → 70%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
30.6%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
30.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
31.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
31.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+10
31.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for 10 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
31.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Amir Rasul for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
31.7%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
31.8%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+3
31.9%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
32.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
32.3%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+20
30.5%
Auden Tate 20 Yd pass from James Blackman (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3831% → 31%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
31.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
31.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 9 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
31.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+7
31.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Scott Bracey for 7 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
31.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Scott Bracey for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
31.2%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3INT
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:4569% → 69%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
31.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 14 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
31.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
30.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
30.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
30.3%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+11
30.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 11 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
30.1%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
29.9%
Akers, Cam rush for 3 yards to the DUKE18, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the DUKE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+9
29.9%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-4
29.9%
James Blackman sacked by Edgar Cerenord for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-5
30.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 20
OPP 31
0
30.6%
James Blackman pass intercepted Mark Gilbert return for no gain to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 6:0531% → 37%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
31.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
31.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
31.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
31.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+15
32.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
50
+4
33.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
33.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Josh Sweat) to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+6
33.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
34.4%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
34.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Demarcus ChristmasSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+4
33.6%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+4
32.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
34.5%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
34.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+6
33.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
36.8%
Austin Parker 37 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3265% → 64%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
35.5%
Patrick, Jacques rush for 8 yards to the FLORIDAST33, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Leonard, Rick) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
34.9%
Amir Rasul run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
35.0%
Amir Rasul run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
35.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6INT
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:2535% → 39%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
35.3%
Brittain Brown run for 19 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
35.9%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+8
38.0%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
38.3%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
38.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+12
38.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 12 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
39.1%
Shaun Wilson pass intercepted Emmett Rice return for no gain to the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:5765% → 64%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+24
34.7%
Cam Akers run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
33.1%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
50
+1
32.3%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
32.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
33.1%
Blackman, James pass complete to Murray, Nyqwan for 36 yards to the DUKE13, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+3
35.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Jared Jackson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
35.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
37.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2137% → 36%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
36.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
36.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
36.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 7 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
38.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
39.4%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+1
38.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
36.3%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds, downed at the FlaSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 88 yds · 6:2764% → 74%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
36.2%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+1
36.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+7
37.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
37.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
37.4%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Ramsay) to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+10
36.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
34.9%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Tate, Auden, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Fields Jr., Bryon) 15 yards to the DUKE46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+38
33.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 38 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
31.6%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
31.7%
James Blackman sacked by Tre Hornbuckle for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+13
33.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 13 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
26.4%
Ricky Aguayo 23 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3530% → 58%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
30.3%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
30.1%
DUKE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
29.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Brian BurnsSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+57
28.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 57 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
36.8%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+10
36.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
37.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 4 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
58.0%
Brittain Brown 9 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4454% → 57%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
45.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnathan Vickers for 26 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
42.0%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
42.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Auden Tate for no gain to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+19
43.1%
James Blackman pass intercepted Jeremy McDuffie return for 19 yds to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5057% → 55%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
56.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 7
50
+3
57.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
57.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Nate AndrewsSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
54.8%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 5:4151% → 83%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
49.2%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 5
OWN 14
+6
48.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
48.1%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
48.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
49.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
47.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnathan Vickers for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-1
45.6%
Nyqwan Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
49.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
50
-1
43.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+9
46.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 9 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+42
16.6%
Cam Akers 42 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0424% → 22%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
24.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 14 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
24.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 11 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
23.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+10
21.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
24.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+2
21.9%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Tarvarus McFadden returns for 2 yds to the FlaSt 12 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Calvin Brewton) to the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0680% → 85%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
19.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
15.5%
Patrick, Jacques rush for 20 yards to the FLORIDAST47, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Eberle, Alec) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+1
16.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
15.7%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
15.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 61 yds, downed at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2120% → 18%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
20.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Demarcus ChristmasSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
19.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
18.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
18.2%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds, downed at the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4190% → 95%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
10.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
9.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-2
8.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jacques Patrick for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
5.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds, downed at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:2411% → 10%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
10.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 8 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+13
11.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 13 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
11.0%
Daniel Jones sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+21
8.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 21 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
10.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
14.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
16.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
12.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
10.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Ermon LaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:23
Cam Akers 42 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)
-29.4
TD · Q3 2:12
Brittain Brown 9 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
+21
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:01
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
+13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com