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BC

Boston College 45 at Louisville 42

LOU
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:38 · Mike Knoll punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+40.1Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:28: Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +21.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:55: AJ Dillon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +22.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:59: AJ Dillon run for 75 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +27.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:03: Lamar Jackson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +29.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Colton Lichtenberg 27 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +32.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:38LOU 4th & 1 at BC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38BC 4th & 16 at BC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:49BC 4th & 13 at LOU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.1%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:00LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:31BC 4th & 13 at BC 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:07BC 4th & 6 at BC 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:54LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:23BC 4th & 9 at LOU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:23LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:22BC 4th & 1 at BC 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.9%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:59BC 4th & 7 at LOU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:03BC 4th & 4 at LOU 48, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:38LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:53BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:07LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:51BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:03BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:28BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:13LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:59BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:59LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:03LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2292% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
91.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
91.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+24
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 34 yds to the LOUISVILLE 21 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Reggie Bonnafon) to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
91.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+6
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+22
91.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Kemari Averett for 22 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
91.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 18 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
91.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 14
OWN 44
-2
91.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 42Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
91.2%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
91.2%
Mike Knoll punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
91.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+1
91.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+1
90.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+15
90.9%
Mason King punt for 42 yds , Michael Walker returns for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
50
+12
90.3%
Thadd Smith run for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
90.3%
Anthony Brown sacked by TreSean Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+5
90.5%
Anthony Brown run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
90.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
90.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2390% → 92%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
90.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
90.3%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+48
90.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 48 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 20 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:439% → 11%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
91.5%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
91.5%
Thadd Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+7
91.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Levy for 7 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
91.4%
Anthony Brown run for 18 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
91.2%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+42
88.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Thadd Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5389% → 89%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
89.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
88.8%
Mason King punt for 57 yds , Michael Walker returns for 11 yds to the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by James HearnsSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
89.1%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+12
89.0%
Anthony Brown run for 12 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
88.6%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+22
88.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 22 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
88.1%
Travis Levy run for 5 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
88.0%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
88.3%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted, touchback. TreSean Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
88.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal forward pass (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
88.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
88.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
89.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-1
89.0%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 2
OWN 41
+3
88.6%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
89.1%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+5
88.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
88.6%
Mason King punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.7%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-5
88.1%
Anthony Brown sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+46
88.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 46 yds , Russ Yeast returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
91.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 64 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis LevySimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.1%
Travis Levy run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff Smith, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
91.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2091% → 90%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+32
90.4%
Mason King punt for 47 yds , Michael Walker returns for 32 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 1:4710% → 15%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.7%
Jeff Smith pass incomplete BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
90.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jon HillimanSimilar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+30
90.2%
Anthony Brown run for 30 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
89.1%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
89.1%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
90.3%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
89.7%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.9%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:4088% → 87%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
87.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
88.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 15 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
88.9%
Jackson, Lam. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BC38 (Landry,H), PENALTY LOU holding (Christian, Ger.) 10 yards to the BC41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 20
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 20
OPP 41
0
86.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3714% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
85.8%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
85.2%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
85.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
84.6%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
83.9%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
83.6%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+5
84.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
83.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Thadd SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
83.9%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
84.8%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
84.9%
Colton Lichtenberg 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
86.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+6
84.9%
Mason King punt for 43 yds , Michael Walker returns for 6 yds to the BC 31 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive holding (Taj-Amir Torres) to the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:1915% → 35%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
85.0%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
83.9%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
84.4%
Jeff Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 31Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+15
85.4%
Darius Wade pass complete to Chris Garrison for 15 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
83.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 47Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+15
84.5%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 15 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
83.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+8
82.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 8 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
82.0%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+3
82.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
82.0%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15 AJ Dillon fumbled, forced by Isaac Stewart, recovered by BC Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+9
82.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Ray Marten for 9 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
82.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.4%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
73.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 4 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
73.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Micky Crum) to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
73.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
71.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
71.1%
Mason King punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3232% → 58%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
68.1%
AJ Dillon run for 33 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
64.3%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+20
63.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 20 yds to the Lvile 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
53.7%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
53.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+24
51.3%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Wyatt Ray return for 24 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2060% → 81%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
40.4%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
40.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the Lvile 14Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
41.4%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 3 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
18.9%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 2:4224% → 46%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
24.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+20
24.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 20 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
26.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
27.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
27.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
46.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 40 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
14.7%
AJ Dillon run for 75 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:0020% → 42%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
20.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 12 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
20.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
20.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+19
19.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+20
23.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 20 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
24.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Charles Standberry, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
24.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 15 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
24.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
42.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
27.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Chris Garrison for 21 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
24.4%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
23.9%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
24.4%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Ben GlinesSimilar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
27.5%
Mike Knoll punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:2131% → 67%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
31.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
31.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+11
29.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 11 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
31.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 23 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
37.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+41
67.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.1%
Thadd Smith run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
52.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
53.1%
AJ Dillon run for 12 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
50.2%
Darius Wade run for 3 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
49.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
50.1%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
53.5%
Mike Knoll punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29FUMBLE
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
59.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 3 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
58.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
59.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 20 yds Jaylen Smith fumbled, forced by Darius Wade, recovered by BC Kamrin Moore , return for 11 yds to the Lvile 39 Kamrin Moore fumbled, forced by Darius Wade, recovered by BC Isaac YiadomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 30FG
13 plays · 29 yds · 1:4956% → 96%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
43.9%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
43.4%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+7
43.7%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
38.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
37.3%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
39.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
37.2%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+27
4.2%
Colton Lichtenberg 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Colton Lichtenberg 27 yd FG GOOD
-32.1
TD · Q4 5:03
Lamar Jackson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+29.9
TD · Q4 11:59
AJ Dillon run for 75 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
-27.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com