View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:27 · Alex Spence 30 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:31: Tanner Muse 63 Yd Fumble Return (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +4.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:27: Alex Spence 30 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +6.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:12: Steve Ishmael 30 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick) — SYR win probability +19.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:16: Travis Etienne 52 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick) — CLEM win probability +16.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:41: Cole Murphy 30 Yd Field Goal — SYR win probability +12.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 9:12SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q1 5:52CLEM 4th & 8 at SYR 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snapGo for it88.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call88.9%80% to makePunt88.3%−0.6average punt
- Q1 2:17CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 47, down 7Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it85.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:53SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it16.4%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 11:59CLEM 4th & 6 at SYR 41, down 7Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.4%40% to convertField goal79.9%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call80.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:43SYR 4th & 1 at CLEM 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.4%70% to convertField goal19.8%−1.634% to makePunt19.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 3:49SYR 4th & 3 at CLEM 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snapGo for it23.1%44% to convertField goalTheir call22.4%−0.793% to makePunt18.4%−4.7average punt
- Q2 3:00CLEM 4th & 22 at CLEM 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it70.4%−2.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
- Q2 1:58SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it24.9%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q2 0:36CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it70.7%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.4%average punt
- Q3 12:32CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 49, down 3Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snapGo for it70.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:05SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 14, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snapGo for it30.0%−2.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q3 8:27CLEM 4th & 4 at SYR 13, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snapGo for it65.4%46% to convertField goalTheir call65.1%−0.385% to makePunt56.3%−9.2average punt
- Q3 0:45CLEM 4th & 12 at SYR 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snapGo for it59.5%−3.422% to convertField goalTheir call63.0%74% to makePunt49.8%−13.1average punt
- Q4 12:00SYR 4th & 1 at CLEM 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.4%71% to convertField goal40.0%−5.474% to makePunt23.9%−21.5average punt
- Q4 9:41SYR 4th & 3 at CLEM 11, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snapGo for it48.9%50% to convertField goalTheir call46.3%−2.687% to makePunt25.0%−23.9average punt
- Q4 6:10CLEM 4th & 6 at SYR 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.3%40% to convertField goal36.5%−1.832% to makePunt35.2%−3.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:44SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.2%97% to makeGo for two9.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:37CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:13SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.1%97% to makeGo for two13.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.4%97% to makeGo for two80.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:12SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.5%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:16CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call64.1%97% to makeGo for two63.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD13 plays · 72 yds · 3:098% → 10%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
9.1%
Eric Dungey sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+23
9.6%
Dontae Strickland 23 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-15
9.5%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dontae Strickland) to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD5 plays · 62 yds · 1:0391% → 91%
Q1 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+14
9.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 14 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1610% → 10%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.6%
Devin C. Butler pass incomplete to Eric Dungey, broken up by Clelin FerrellSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
9.7%
Eric Dungey sacked by Dorian O'Daniel and Austin Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 21Similar
Q1 9:12
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
10.0%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4MISSED FG7 plays · 46 yds · 3:1390% → 89%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
10.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 5 yds to the Clem 42Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+15
10.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 15 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
10.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 24 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
10.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for no gain Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, forced by Zaire Franklin, recovered by Clem Hunter RenfrowSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+2
11.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 2 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2712% → 14%
CLEMDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4386% → 85%
Q1 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+9
14.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 9 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2216% → 17%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
15.9%
Eric Dungey sacked by Dorian O'Daniel for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 4Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+15
16.4%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete to Philips, Ervin, PENALTY CLEMSON roughing passer (Wilkins, Christian) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
17.1%
Eric Dungey sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 22Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-3
17.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 21Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
17.2%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4683% → 80%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
17.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 6 yds to the Clem 42Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
17.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 13 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
20.2%
Will Spiers punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD12 plays · 57 yds · 3:1421% → 18%
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+20
21.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 20 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
21.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Jamal Custis for 15 yds to the Syrac 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
23.3%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete to Custis, Jamal (Terrell, A.J.), PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Terrell, A.J.) 10 yards to the CLEMSON49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
23.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 11 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
24.0%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete to Ishmael, Steve, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Fields, Mark) 14 yards to the CLEMSON24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 16
OPP 30
-15
24.4%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Steve Ishmael) to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
17.8%
CLEMSON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tanner Muse) to the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10FG18 plays · 57 yds · 4:1621% → 27%
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+6
20.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 6 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
22.4%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin Philips, broken up by Isaiah SimmonsSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+5
20.4%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Christian Wilkins) to the Clem 49Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+9
21.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
23.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 28 yds to the Clem 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 0:4576% → 73%
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 12 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
24.6%
Kelly Bryant sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the Clem 25 CLEMSON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kelly Bryant) to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
26.7%
Will Spiers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5527% → 26%
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
27.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 4 yds to the Syrac 35Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+20
25.6%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the SYRACUSE 30 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Shyheim Cullen) to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1776% → 72%
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
24.7%
Bryant, Kelly pass complete to Cain, Deon for 3 yards to the CLEMSON48, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Hyatt, Mitch) 10 yards to the CLEMSON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+10
26.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 10 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+5
27.7%
Will Spiers punt for 39 yds , Sean Riley returns for 5 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3427% → 27%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1371% → 70%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
29.5%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 8 yds to the Clem 33Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
29.4%
Cooper, Zerrick pass incomplete to McCloud, Ray-Ray, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding (Fredrick, Christopher) 10 yards to the CLEMSON43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
28.0%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
28.5%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Deon Cain, broken up by Evan FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2532% → 32%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
32.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 3 yds to the Syrac 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FG7 plays · 29 yds · 2:3370% → 72%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
29.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Deon Cain for 6 yds to the Syrac 36Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
29.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 12 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-6
30.2%
Zerrick Cooper sacked by Alton Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 25Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+12
33.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 12 yds to the Syrac 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:0832% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4953% → 72%
SYRDrive 20PUNT8 plays · -16 yds · 2:1034% → 33%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
34.3%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete, PENALTY CLEMSON roughing passer (Bryant, Austin) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
35.8%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete, PENALTY SYRACUSE holding 10 yards to the SYRACUSE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+1
34.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 1 yd to the Syrac 27Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 19
OWN 27
-14
33.2%
Dungey, Eric pass complete to Ishmael, Steve for 23 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Ishmael, Steve) 14 yards to the SYRACUSE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 33
OWN 13
-8
33.5%
Eric Dungey sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 5Similar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 41
OWN 5
0
32.7%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21MISSED FG9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0071% → 63%
SYRDrive 22FG19 plays · 68 yds · 5:5941% → 65%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
41.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 11 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
46.6%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ravian Pierce for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
50
-6
48.5%
Eric Dungey run for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 44 Eric Dungey fumbled, recovered by Syrac Dontae StricklandSimilar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
44.2%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trayvon Mullen) to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
49.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 11 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+5
50.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Austin Bryant) to the Clem 22Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
54.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Tyrone Perkins for no gain to the Clem 20Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+9
52.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Devin C. Butler for 9 yds to the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23DOWNS9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1142% → 40%
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
55.0%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Deon Cain for 8 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+12
56.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 12 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
53.6%
Zerrick Cooper sacked by Chris Slayton for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 49Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+8
59.1%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Deon Cain for 8 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24END OF GAME16 plays · 24 yds · 5:4072% → 94%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:12
Steve Ishmael 30 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)
+19
TD · Q3 6:16
Travis Etienne 52 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)
-16.5
FG · Q4 9:41
Cole Murphy 30 Yd Field Goal
+12.8