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DUKE

Duke 21 at Virginia 28

UVA
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−6.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:21: Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:45: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +14.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +11.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:08: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 17 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +11.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:14: Quentin Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +15.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:15UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:17DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:40DUKE 4th & 22 at DUKE 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:49UVA 4th & 21 at UVA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:17DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:35UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:15UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:51DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:30DUKE 4th & 5 at UVA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:19UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:27DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at DUKE 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−4.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−5.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:58DUKE 4th & 8 at UVA 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    25.1%−1.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:18UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:13DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:22UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:31DUKE 4th & 16 at UVA 40, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%
    34% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:08UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:15DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:21DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:45UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:30UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:08UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:14DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
43.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
43.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
50
0
43.7%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
50
0
43.7%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:1656% → 55%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
50
-1
44.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
44.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 10
50
+58
45.4%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted for a TD Quin Blanding return for 58 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
45.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
45.7%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
45.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
46.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 5 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
46.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-1
46.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
45.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 9:17
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
47.8%
Austin Parker punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 41Similar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
47.5%
Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
47.5%
Brittain Brown run for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
47.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
48.8%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Shaun Wilson return for 7 yds to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
47.7%
DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Joe Giles-Harris) to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+3
48.4%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 22
OWN 44
0
48.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 22
OWN 44
0
48.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 22
OWN 44
0
48.9%
Austin Parker punt for 43 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
49.1%
Chris Sharp run for 5 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+7
49.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
49.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
49.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+18
48.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 18 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
49.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+1
49.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 14
OWN 37
-7
49.0%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 30 Kurt Benkert fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 21
OWN 30
+14
48.5%
Lester Coleman punt for 50 yds , T.J. Rahming returns for 14 yds to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
51.0%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
50.5%
Brittain Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+10
50.4%
Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
50.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
50.3%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for 4 yds to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
48.7%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jeremy McDuffie return for 42 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1548% → 47%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
47.6%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+5
47.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-2
47.3%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
46.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 48 yds, downed at the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
46.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Joey Blount) to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
46.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
45.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
46.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+1
47.5%
Austin Parker punt for 32 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4348% → 48%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
48.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
49.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
48.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
47.5%
Lester Coleman punt for 52 yds, downed at the Duke 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 6:5653% → 66%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
47.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+8
47.1%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
46.9%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
47.0%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+9
47.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.1%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
45.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 6 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
45.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 6 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
44.9%
Daniel Jones run for 24 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
44.1%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
44.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+11
45.1%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
44.1%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
44.1%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
34.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
36.4%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
35.8%
Lester Coleman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
36.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
37.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
37.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+47
38.3%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, downed at the VIRGINIA 42 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Juan Thornhill) to the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:1937% → 55%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
37.2%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
38.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 7 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+9
39.7%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Zaccheaus, O, PENALTY DU pass interference (McDuffie, J) 9 yards to the DU43, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
40.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+8
40.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
41.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+15
40.6%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Dowling, D, PENALTY DU pass interference (Fields Jr., B) 15 yards to the DU16, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
41.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
54.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.9%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
47.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 16 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
45.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
46.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
47.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+10
49.0%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 10 yds to the Virg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:2952% → 69%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
51.7%
Joe Reed run for 4 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+6
52.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
52.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
53.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 16 yds to the VIRGINIA 40 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (Andre Levrone) to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+17
54.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 17 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
55.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 25 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Joe Giles-HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
56.0%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Dubois, H, PENALTY DU pass interference (Fields Jr., B) 5 yards to the DU4, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
56.0%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.5%
Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
63.1%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
62.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
62.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
63.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 5 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
63.8%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
68.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
68.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Daniel HammSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
67.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
66.2%
Lester Coleman punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
63.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-2
63.4%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
66.2%
Austin Parker punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:5471% → 80%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
71.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
71.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
70.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Jeremy McDuffieSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
70.0%
Kurt Benkert run for 15 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
74.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
74.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 7
50
+8
72.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 8 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
74.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+10
73.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 10 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
73.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
80.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Jordan EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
71.4%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
72.8%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+30
73.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 30 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
68.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
68.5%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
68.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q4 14:58
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
71.6%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:0581% → 97%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
80.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
80.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
80.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
80.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
82.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
81.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 9 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Evan Butts, broken up by Jeremy McDuffieSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
84.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+14
83.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 14 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
85.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+9
85.8%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Zaccheaus, O, PENALTY DU holding (McDuffie, J) 9 yards to the DU24, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
85.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
85.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
97.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 17 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5410% → 25%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
89.8%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
89.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
90.4%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Helm, D, PENALTY VA holding (Moore, C) 5 yards to the VA4, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
75.4%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5687% → 87%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
86.2%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
86.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 52 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
86.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
87.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
87.8%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2889% → 92%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
88.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
89.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-3
90.1%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
93.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
92.3%
Lester Coleman punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:4310% → 7%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
90.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 8 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+14
88.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Scott Bracey for 14 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
88.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+20
93.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
90.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Scott Bracey for 12 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
88.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Brittain Brown for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
88.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-10
90.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
93.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:14
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q2 0:45
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
+14
TD · Q4 7:08
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 17 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com