2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:43 · Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 23 yds to the Clem 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:18: Adam Choice run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:57: WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Benzinger) to the 50 yard line — WAKE win probability +2.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:13: Timeout WAKE FOREST, clock 11:13 — CLEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:31: Travis Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:28: Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cam Serigne for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
- Q1 11:25WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 29, down 7Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:37WAKE 4th & 13 at CLEM 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.418% to convertField goalTheir call9.0%81% to makePunt7.7%−1.3average punt
- Q1 0:23CLEM 4th & 11 at WAKE 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snapGo for it91.0%−0.325% to convertField goalTheir call91.3%66% to makePunt89.3%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:06WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 14Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:30CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 44, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.2%70% to convertField goal89.7%−1.527% to makePunt90.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 8:41WAKE 4th & 13 at CLEM 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.321% to convertField goal9.0%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q2 6:07CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snapGo for it90.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%average punt
- Q2 4:17WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.8%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 2:24CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt90.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:59CLEM 4th & 10 at WAKE 49, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.1%average punt
- Q3 13:43WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 11:09WAKE 4th & 16 at CLEM 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.816% to convertField goalTheir call8.0%51% to makePunt7.5%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:43CLEM 4th & 3 at WAKE 39, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.9%53% to convertField goal91.8%−1.136% to makePunt91.9%−1.0average punt
- Q3 6:17WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 5:40CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 22, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q3 1:55WAKE 4th & 3 at CLEM 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%51% to convertField goal1.8%−0.280% to makePunt-0.3%−2.3average punt
- Q4 14:12CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q4 13:08WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 4, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.520% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 6:33CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, up 21Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:32WAKE 4th & 2 at CLEM 9, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.454% to convertField goal1.1%89% to makePunt0.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 2:28WAKE 4th & 11 at CLEM 11, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.222% to convertField goal1.0%87% to makePunt0.4%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 12:59CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:18CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:31CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:48CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:32WAKE Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:28WAKE Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5288% → 88%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 11 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
50
+9
88.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 9 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
88.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 28 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2012% → 12%
CLEMDrive 3TD12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4888% → 89%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
87.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
87.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 6 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
87.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for no gain to the Clem 39Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+17
87.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 17 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
87.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+19
87.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 19 yds to the WFrst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4MISSED FG6 plays · 54 yds · 1:1512% → 11%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+57
88.1%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Greg Dortch for 43 yds to the CLEMSON 27 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Christian Wilkins) to the Clem 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5MISSED FG13 plays · 55 yds · 4:0189% → 89%
Q1 3:56
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+20
89.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 20 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
89.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+5
89.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 5 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0711% → 11%
CLEMDrive 7FUMBLE11 plays · 16 yds · 3:5489% → 90%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
89.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adam Choice for 5 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
90.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 8 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-18
89.7%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Wendell Dunn for a loss of 18 yards to the Clem 40 Kelly Bryant fumbled, recovered by WFrstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1613% → 12%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
87.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Benzinger) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2089% → 88%
WAKEDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 1:3311% → 11%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
88.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+4
88.6%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Greg Dortch for 4 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
88.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Austin Bryant) to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+20
89.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 48 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 20 yds to the 50 yardline CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 3:0789% → 90%
Q2 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
89.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Adam Choice for 3 yds to the Clem 46Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+5
88.7%
Will Spiers pass complete to Cornell Powell for 5 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
90.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-15
89.6%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Clem 42Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+9
89.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 9 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
90.0%
Will Spiers punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Alex Bachman at the WFrst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12END OF HALF11 plays · 44 yds · 0:5210% → 10%
WAKEDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0510% → 9%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Kendall Hinton run for no gain to the WFrst 25 Kendall Hinton fumbled, forced by Austin Bryant, recovered by WFrst Matt ColburnSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+23
90.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 23 yds to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14INT3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0291% → 91%
WAKEDrive 15MISSED FG6 plays · 32 yds · 1:1710% → 8%
CLEMDrive 16TD9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2992% → 98%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
92.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Cornell Powell for 10 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+9
92.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 9 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+29
92.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 29 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q3 6:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 3 yds to the Clem 28 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3098% → 98%
Q3 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+6
97.5%
Will Spiers punt for 34 yds , Greg Dortch returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 3:363% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 2:3299% → 99%
Q3 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+7
98.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Deon Cain for 7 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 9 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 10
OWN 41
-2
98.8%
Will Spiers punt for 51 yds , Greg Dortch returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:541% → 1%
CLEMDrive 22TD5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1799% → 100%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+9
99.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Tee Higgins for 9 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+10
99.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Tee Higgins for 10 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
99.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to T.J. Chase for 5 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Cannon Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD10 plays · 78 yds · 2:580% → 1%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
99.9%
Kendall Hinton sacked by Xavier Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Arkeem Byrd for 9 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
98.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Scotty Washington for 16 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4899% → 100%
WAKEDrive 25TD12 plays · 60 yds · 3:561% → 3%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
99.3%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 26 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
99.2%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cam Serigne for 2 yds to the Clem 12Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
97.2%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cam Serigne for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1898% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:31
Travis Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)
+4.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:13
Timeout WAKE FOREST, clock 11:13
+2.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 9:57
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Benzinger) to the 50 yard line
-2.2