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MUR

Murray State 10 at Louisville 55

LOU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:29 · Nolan Nichols run for 3 yds to the MurrS 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 4:28: Gabriel Vicente 36 yd FG GOOD — MUR win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 11:44: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:41: Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 14:50: TEAM run for no gain TEAM fumbled, recovered by MurrS Jason Johnson , return for 23 yds, (Gabriel Vicente KICK) — MUR win probability +0.2 pts (now 0%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:27: Blanton Creque 37 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:28MUR 4th & 9 at LOU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:28LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MUR 4th & 13 at MUR 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:44MUR 4th & 8 at MUR 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:35LOU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:18MUR 4th & 3 at MUR 28, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:19MUR 4th & 10 at MUR 24, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:27LOU 4th & 16 at MUR 20, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:27MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 28, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:10MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:48LOU 4th & 9 at midfield, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:28MUR 4th & 13 at MUR 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:29LOU 4th & 12 at MUR 27, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:29MUR 4th & 5 at MUR 39, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:36LOU 4th & 9 at MUR 40, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:30LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:35LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:44LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:18LOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:41LOU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:10LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:29LOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.7%
Corey Newble pass complete to Jordon Gandy for 5 yds to the MurrS 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
99.7%
Jordon Gandy run for 4 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-3
99.7%
Jordon Gandy run for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Landon Stratton punt for 50 yds, downed at the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 9 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+26
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the MurrS 43 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the MurrS 42Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 18 yds to the MurrS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
99.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 22 yds to the MurrS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:020% → 1%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.6%
Corey Newble run for 6 yds to the MurrS 25Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
D.J. Penick run for 2 yds to the MurrS 27Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
99.6%
Corey Newble pass complete to Jensen Feggins for 5 yds to the MurrS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.6%
Corey Newble pass complete to L.J. Gainey for 16 yds to the MurrS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.6%
D.J. Penick run for 1 yd to the MurrS 49Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
99.6%
D.J. Penick run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan Greenard) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+4
99.5%
D.J. Penick run for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+12
99.5%
Corey Newble pass complete to Jonathan Moss for 12 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.5%
Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jonathan Moss, broken up by Stacy ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.5%
Rico McGraw run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Rico McGraw run for no gain to the Lvile 18Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
99.2%
Gabriel Vicente 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 9 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-3
99.3%
Malik Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , L.J. Gainey returns for no gain to the MurrS 21 L.J. Gainey fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamarques ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 12 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:351% → 1%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.3%
Corey Newble pass complete to Rajai Perkins for 4 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Corey Newble pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
Corey Newble pass complete to Rodney Castille for 8 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
99.2%
Jordon Gandy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 35Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-1
99.3%
Corey Newble run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
99.1%
Corey Newble pass incomplete to Rico McGrawSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+21
99.1%
Landon Stratton punt for 50 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 21 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5899% → 99%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Silas OwensSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
99.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 11 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
99.1%
Traveon Samuel run for 13 yds to the MurrS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.1%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
D.J. Penick run for 2 yds to the MurrS 27Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Corey Newble pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Corey Newble pass incomplete to D.J. PenickSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.3%
Landon Stratton punt for 57 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:1799% → 99%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+30
99.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 30 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.3%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
50
0
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Corey ReedSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 7
50
0
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel, broken up by Bishop WoodsSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 7
50
+24
99.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 24 yds to the MurrS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
99.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 18 yds to the MurrS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.2%
Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jordon GandySimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
99.2%
D.J. Penick run for no gain to the MurrS 21Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.1%
Corey Newble pass complete to Rodney Castille for 7 yds to the MurrS 28Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 3
OWN 28
-2
99.0%
Landon Stratton punt for 49 yds , Russ Yeast returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:49100% → 100%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
99.5%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-14
99.4%
Williams, Mal. rush right for 3 yards to the LOU31 (WADE, Zachary), PENALTY LOU illegal block (Christian, Ger.) 14 yards to the LOU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+21
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, roughing passer (Quincy Williams) to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 13 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 15 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 8 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+11
99.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 11 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the MurrS 11Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
99.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the MurrS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:220% → 0%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Corey Newble run for 2 yds to the MurrS 26Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
Rico McGraw run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 24Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jordon GandySimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Landon Stratton punt for 49 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 25 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Colin Wilson) to the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 73 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+11
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 11 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+57
99.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Corey Reed for 57 yds Corey Reed fumbled, forced by Marquez Sanford, recovered by MurrS Zachary WadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FUMBLE TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
99.6%
TEAM run for no gain TEAM fumbled, recovered by MurrS Jason Johnson , return for 23 yds, (Gabriel Vicente KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:23100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Charles Standberry for 18 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.6%
Jawon Pass run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
99.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 12 yds to the MurrS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.6%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+23
99.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Charles Standberry for 9 yds to the MurrS 28 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derrick Shaw) to the MurrS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Geron Christian) to the MurrS 19Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+8
99.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Micky Crum for 8 yds to the MurrS 11Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-10
99.6%
Williams, Mal. rush right for 1 yard to the MUR10 (SANFORD, Marque;PAIGE, Marico), PENALTY LOU holding (Crum, Mic.) 10 yards to the MUR21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+8
99.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Charles Standberry for 8 yds to the MurrS 13Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-7
99.6%
Jawon Pass sacked by Troy-Wayne Quinn for a loss of 7 yards to the MurrS 20Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+37
99.9%
Blanton Creque 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Corey Newble pass complete to Jensen Feggins for 5 yds to the MurrS 27Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Rico McGraw run for 1 yd to the MurrS 28Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Corey Newble pass incomplete to Jensen Feggins, broken up by Tabarious PetersonSimilar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Landon Stratton punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jordan Davis for 10 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
99.9%
Jawon Pass run for 34 yds to the MurrS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Javonte Bagley for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 14Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 14 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.9%
D.J. Penick run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 34Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Corey Newble pass complete to Jonathan Moss for 2 yds to the MurrS 36Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Corey Newble run for 3 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Landon Stratton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Russ Yeast at the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
99.9%
Colin Wilson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.9%
Colin Wilson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Corey Reed, broken up by Marquez SanfordSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-6
99.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Marico Paige for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Emonee Spence for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 9
50
+7
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Colin Wilson for 7 yds to the MurrS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Brendan Bognar pass incomplete, broken up by G.G. RobinsonSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
99.9%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Sylvaughn Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 40Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Brendan Bognar pass incomplete to Sylvaughn TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Landon Stratton punt for 34 yds , Russ Yeast returns for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 5:59100% → 100%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
99.9%
Colin Wilson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Davis) to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 17
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Trey Smith run for 8 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Corey Reed for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Trey Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Trey Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dee Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the MurrS 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dee Smith for 9 yds to the MurrS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
99.9%
Harry Trotter run for 13 yds to the MurrS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
99.9%
Harry Trotter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete, broken up by Tyler StepneySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Emonee SpenceSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
100.0%
Blanton Creque 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
100.0%
D.J. Penick run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 33Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass incomplete to Jordon GandySimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+6
100.0%
D.J. Penick run for 6 yds to the MurrS 39Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Landon Stratton punt for 59 yds, downed at the Lvile 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
18 plays · 98 yds · 8:07100% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
100.0%
Tobias Little run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+14
100.0%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Emonee Spence for 14 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
100.0%
Tobias Little run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
100.0%
Tobias Little run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Austin Daulton) to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
100.0%
Jawon Pass sacked by Chris Stahl for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+15
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 15 yds to the MurrS 45Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the MurrS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the MurrS 40Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Corey ReedSimilar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+10
100.0%
Jawon Pass run for 10 yds to the MurrS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 12 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
100.0%
Jawon Pass run for no gain to the MurrS 18Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 8 yds to the MurrS 10Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
100.0%
Jawon Pass run for 4 yds to the MurrS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the MurrS 2Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Jawon Pass run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Nolan Nichols run for 3 yds to the MurrS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:41
Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+0.4
FG · Q1 4:28
Gabriel Vicente 36 yd FG GOOD
-0.3
TD · Q2 11:44
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com