2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:08 · Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 3:10: Joey Slye 43 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +2.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:19: C.J. Fuller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:12: Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:00: Sean Savoy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +13.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:08: Josh Jackson pass intercepted for a TD Dorian O'Daniel return for 22 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 13:28VT 4th & 9 at VT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it34.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q1 9:54CLEM 4th & 6 at VT 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snapGo for it64.6%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call64.6%91% to makePunt63.9%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:08VT 4th & 1 at VT 31, down 3Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snapGo for it35.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:47VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 3:14CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 30, up 10Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it67.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 0:05VT 4th & 6 at VT 49, down 10Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snapGo for it31.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:40CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 37, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snapGo for it67.4%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.5%average punt
- Q2 11:14VT 4th & 2 at VT 15, down 10Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snapGo for it29.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:47CLEM 4th & 6 at VT 23, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snapGo for it70.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call70.0%70% to makePunt67.9%−2.1average punt
- Q2 3:10VT 4th & 8 at CLEM 25, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snapGo for it28.7%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call29.0%66% to makePunt25.5%−3.5average punt
- Q3 13:27CLEM 4th & 24 at CLEM 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snapGo for it76.5%−3.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.3%average punt
- Q3 7:12CLEM 4th & 1 at VT 1, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.6%59% to convertField goal80.8%−2.894% to makePunt73.6%−10.0average punt
- Q3 5:23VT 4th & 3 at CLEM 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.8%−0.8average punt
- Q3 3:54CLEM 4th & 7 at VT 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it96.2%−<0.137% to convertField goal95.5%−0.725% to makePuntTheir call96.2%average punt
- Q3 2:31VT 4th & 4 at CLEM 38, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%48% to convertField goal4.8%−1.138% to makePunt4.8%−1.2average punt
- Q3 0:23VT 4th & 12 at CLEM 20, down 21Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.5%−1.022% to convertField goal4.5%75% to makePunt0.8%−3.7average punt
- Q4 14:04CLEM 4th & 17 at CLEM 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.913% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 11:21CLEM 4th & 3 at VT 49, up 14Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it92.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.4%−0.8average punt
- Q4 9:40VT 4th & 4 at VT 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:14CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 36, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 1:32VT 4th & 9 at CLEM 30, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.132% to convertField goal0.9%56% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:48CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.1%97% to makeGo for two66.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:19CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two75.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:12CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:00VT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.2%97% to makeGo for two10.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:08CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:32VT Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.5%97% to makeGo for two2.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2331% → 32%
CLEMDrive 2FG11 plays · 47 yds · 3:0668% → 67%
Q1 12:32
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+27
31.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 27 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
31.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 3 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+16
32.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 16 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
32.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (Christian Wilkins) to the VTech 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1833% → 33%
CLEMDrive 4TD3 plays · 66 yds · 0:5467% → 69%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
33.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
33.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 3 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+60
30.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 60 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2732% → 31%
CLEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4669% → 69%
Q1 3:14
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Will Spiers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5531% → 30%
CLEMDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:2569% → 69%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
30.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Justin Falcinelli) to the Clem 10Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
30.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 4 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-1
30.4%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Tim Settle for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
31.2%
Will Spiers punt for 50 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 37 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (Adonis Alexander) to the VTech 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2230% → 29%
CLEMDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 43 yds · 3:1770% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FG11 plays · 52 yds · 4:2029% → 31%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
28.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Henri Murphy for 9 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
29.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Henri Murphy for 14 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+3
28.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dalton Keene for 3 yds to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3071% → 82%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+35
28.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 35 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
25.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 20 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13MISSED FG10 plays · 50 yds · 0:5821% → 21%
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+13
20.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 13 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+21
20.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 21 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
21.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 5 yds to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 0:5981% → 80%
VTDrive 16FUMBLE2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2222% → 21%
CLEMDrive 17TD11 plays · 51 yds · 4:5983% → 94%
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
14.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 7 yds to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 1:378% → 7%
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
Q3 3:54
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
2.9%
Will Spiers punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 60 yds · 3:185% → 5%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+35
5.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 35 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+6
5.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 6 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+20
5.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Henri Murphy for 20 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-8
5.8%
C.J. Carroll sacked by Dorian O'Daniel for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 26Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 18
OPP 26
+12
5.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the Clem 14Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-6
5.1%
Josh Jackson sacked by Isaiah Simmons for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 20Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+1
4.5%
Oscar Bradburn pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
VTDrive 22TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1492% → 93%
Q4 13:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
7.6%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Cain, Deon, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Edmunds, Terrell) 16 yards to the CLEMSON44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
6.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
6.6%
Will Spiers punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0812% → 3%
VTDrive 25INT10 plays · 34 yds · 3:143% → 3%
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
2.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Deshawn McClease for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+8
2.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Coleman Fox for 8 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
2.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Coleman Fox for 13 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
2.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 5 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-4
2.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Coleman Fox for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 41Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+10
2.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Cam Phillips for 10 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
2.7%
Josh Jackson pass intercepted Austin Bryant return for no gain to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5799% → 99%
Q4 5:14
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+3
0.6%
Will Spiers punt for 39 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27TD11 plays · 72 yds · 3:281% → 3%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
1.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Eric Kumah for 6 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-4
1.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Coleman Fox for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 46Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+30
2.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 30 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:00
Sean Savoy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q4 11:08
Josh Jackson pass intercepted for a TD Dorian O'Daniel return for 22 yds for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)
-9
TD · Q3 7:12
Tavien Feaster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Spence KICK)
-7.8