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CMU

Central Michigan 8 at Boston College 28

BC
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:46 · Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds , Michael Walker returns for 61 yds to the CMich 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+24.9Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:25: AJ Dillon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK) — BC win probability +3.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:24: Kumehnnu Gwilly 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CMU win probability +5.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 80%).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:50: Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Josh Cox) to the CMich 7 for a 1ST down — BC win probability +2.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:03: Jon Hilliman 2 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick) — BC win probability +5.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:40: Jon Hilliman 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick) — BC win probability +8.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 1 at BC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02CMU 4th & 9 at BC 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    24.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:46CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:33CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:25CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 14, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:29BC 4th & 8 at BC 40, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:43CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00BC 4th & 4 at BC 26, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:24BC 4th & 2 at BC 43, up 6
    Close callPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:16CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:50BC 4th & 7 at BC 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:43CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:45BC 4th & 4 at CMU 13, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:49CMU 4th & 11 at BC 17, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:15BC 4th & 1 at BC 39, up 20
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:55CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 26, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:33BC Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25BC Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:24CMU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:03BC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:40BC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
76.2%
Thadd Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+9
76.2%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
76.2%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1524% → 25%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
75.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
75.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Ray SmithSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+3
75.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Kumehnnu Gwilly for 3 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 4
OPP 38
-5
75.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 43Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
75.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 42 yds, downed at the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
75.3%
Nate Brisson-Fast SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
75.1%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
75.2%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Zach CrouchSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-7
75.3%
Shane Morris sacked by Ty Schwab and Wyatt Ray for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 17
OWN 34
+61
75.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds , Michael Walker returns for 61 yds to the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
75.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 17 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
75.3%
Shane Morris run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
75.3%
Tony Poljan run for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+34
75.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds , Michael Walker returns for 34 yds to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:3376% → 80%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
76.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
50
+4
76.1%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
75.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for 4 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
76.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-5
76.1%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 14
OPP 46
-5
75.9%
Brown,A pass complete to Hilliman,J for 15 yards to the CMU31 (KELLY, Darwyn), PENALTY BC illegal block (Phillips,J) 5 yards to the BC49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+5
75.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 5 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 14
OPP 46
+11
75.6%
Anthony Brown run for 11 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+15
75.7%
Brown,A pass incomplete to Smith,J (COX, Josh), PENALTY CMU roughing passer 15 yards to the CMU20, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
76.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
79.8%
AJ Dillon run for 15 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
77.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
77.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
77.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Zach CrouchSimilar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
77.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jon HillimanSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
79.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
78.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 31 yds, downed at the CMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
78.2%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
78.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Damon Terry for 2 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+61
78.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOSTCOLL 14 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the BC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:1579% → 79%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
79.3%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 7Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
79.3%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+8
79.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 8 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
80.0%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
79.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+2
79.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 38 yds , Amari Coleman returns for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0122% → 28%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
78.2%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 33 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
76.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Eric Cooper) to the BC 34Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+18
77.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 18 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
76.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the BC 15Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-2
76.9%
Tony Poljan run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+16
77.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 16 yds to the BC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.9%
Shane Morris run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
76.0%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
76.2%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ray Marten for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
77.2%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+4
76.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 4 yds to the BC 43 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
75.9%
Mike Knoll punt for 52 yds, downed at the CMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
75.0%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 6 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+2
74.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+2
75.4%
Shane Morris run for 2 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
74.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 5 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-2
74.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
75.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for no gain to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 7
OWN 18
-5
75.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+29
75.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 33 yds , Michael Walker returns for 29 yds to the CMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4779% → 85%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
78.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Josh Cox) to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
78.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.5%
Jon Hilliman 2 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.5%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
81.4%
Tony Poljan run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
50
0
81.0%
Shane Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
50
+1
81.6%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Lukas Denis return for 1 yd to the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5584% → 85%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
83.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 3 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
83.5%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 28Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
84.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.7%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
84.4%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Zach CrouchSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
84.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan Ward, broken up by Kamrin MooreSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
85.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 34 yds, downed at the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 1:0287% → 87%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+12
84.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 12 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
85.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 49Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+3
86.9%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
87.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
86.4%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 12
OPP 48
+16
85.7%
Brown,A pass incomplete to Smith,J, PENALTY CMU roughing passer 16 yards to the CMU32, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
86.8%
Colton Lichtenberg 50 yd FG MISSED , Amari Coleman return for 20 yds to the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.3%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
84.3%
Tony Poljan pass complete to Damon Terry for 9 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
84.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 11 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
83.5%
Shane Morris run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 41 Shane Morris fumbled,Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-2
84.3%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 39
0
84.5%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 39
+4
84.9%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 44 yds , Michael Walker returns for 4 yds to the BC 43 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 4:3387% → 97%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
86.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+2
87.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
87.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+23
87.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jeff Smith for 23 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
87.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+7
87.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
87.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
87.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+18
87.4%
AJ Dillon run for 18 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
87.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
87.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
Jon Hilliman 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Zach CrouchSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
95.9%
MORRIS, Shane pass incomplete to POLJAN, Tony, PENALTY BC pass interference (Harris,W) 11 yards to the CMU38, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
95.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 8 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
95.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
95.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 2 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
95.7%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 5 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
95.6%
Romello Ross run for 6 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
95.6%
Romello Ross run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
95.6%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Zach Allen return for no gain to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4497% → 97%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
97.0%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
97.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
96.9%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
97.0%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
97.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 10 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
97.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-3
97.0%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 13Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
96.9%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Carlos ClarkSimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+29
96.7%
Colton Lichtenberg 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24MISSED FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:563% → 2%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.5%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for no gain to the CMich 20Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
97.6%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+17
97.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 17 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
97.4%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
97.4%
Tony Poljan run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+21
97.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tony Poljan for 21 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
97.7%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+17
97.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
97.6%
Shane Morris pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
97.7%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
97.8%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
98.5%
Michael Armstrong 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.6%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
98.6%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
98.6%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 7 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
98.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
98.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Chris Garrison for 1 yd to the BC 39Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+1
98.9%
Mike Knoll punt for 38 yds , Mark Chapman returns for 1 yd to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
98.9%
Shane Morris sacked by Zach Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+23
98.9%
Shane Morris pass complete to Tony Poljan for 23 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
98.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Eric Cooper for 6 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
98.8%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+1
98.8%
Shane Morris run for 1 yd to the BC 48Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+13
98.8%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 13 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+58
98.6%
Shane Morris pass intercepted Lukas Denis return for 58 yds to the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+2
99.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the CMich 22 Jon Hilliman fumbled, forced by D'Andre Dill, recovered by CMich Alex Briones , return for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.3%
Romello Ross run for 9 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-5
99.3%
Shane Morris sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Shane Morris pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.4%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
99.4%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
99.4%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.4%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
99.4%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the CMich 4Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
99.4%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the CMich 3 AJ Dillon fumbled, forced by Josh Cox, recovered by CMich Alex Briones , return for 1 yd to the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.5%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+13
99.5%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 13 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:40
Jon Hilliman 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
+8.7
TD · Q2 4:03
Jon Hilliman 2 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)
+5.7
TD · Q2 10:24
Kumehnnu Gwilly 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com