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MIA

Miami 31 at Duke 6

DUKE
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2017 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:08 · Zach Feagles punt for a loss of 1 yard, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−15.9Score differential−7.6Pregame prior−4.2Garbage-time factor−5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:50: Malik Rosier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +3.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:03: Austin Parker 36 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +3.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:02: Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 49 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +9.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:25: Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 07:25 — DUKE win probability +9.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:48: Travis Homer run for 40 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:24DUKE 4th & 1 at MIA 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:17DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:13DUKE 4th & 5 at MIA 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56MIA 4th & 19 at DUKE 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:47DUKE 4th & 23 at DUKE 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:49MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:13MIA 4th & 3 at DUKE 3, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03DUKE 4th & 4 at MIA 18, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:43MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:48DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:08MIA 4th & 10 at DUKE 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:25DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:06DUKE 4th & 3 at MIA 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−2.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:51MIA 4th & 6 at DUKE 38, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−1.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:25DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.2%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:55DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:33DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:45MIA 4th & 1 at DUKE 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−1.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:14MIA 4th & 16 at DUKE 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:25MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:50MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:02MIA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:48MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 50 yds · 4:2638% → 40%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
38.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
38.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 18 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
38.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
38.6%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
38.9%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-13
39.2%
T.J. Rahming run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31 DUKE Penalty, Clipping (Evan Lisle) to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 23
OPP 46
+4
39.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 19
OPP 42
0
39.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+20
39.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
40.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 4 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-1
40.2%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+6
40.3%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 1
OPP 13
-11
40.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Michael Pinckney for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:5360% → 63%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
39.9%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+7
39.9%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Bryon Fields Jr.) to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
39.9%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+39
40.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for 39 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
39.5%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+27
37.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 27 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0338% → 38%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
38.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
38.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
38.1%
Austin Parker punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2162% → 67%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+29
37.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 29 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
37.2%
Malik Rosier run for 13 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
37.0%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+13
37.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 13 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
36.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
36.9%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.4%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:1735% → 36%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
35.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+7
35.7%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
35.5%
Daniel Jones sacked by RJ McIntosh for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
34.4%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 13
OPP 44
+17
33.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 17 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
34.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+14
34.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Roughing Passer (Kendrick Norton) to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
34.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
34.6%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
34.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
36.1%
Austin Parker 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0763% → 65%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
36.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 28 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
35.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 4 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
35.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 13 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
35.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Trevon McSwain and Drew Jordan for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-7
35.0%
Malik Rosier sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 19
OPP 48
0
35.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Jeff Thomas for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
34.6%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 5:0335% → 32%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
34.8%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+8
34.9%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.6%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
35.2%
Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
35.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
35.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
35.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 6 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
35.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-10
35.6%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 19
OWN 48
-15
34.4%
DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 34
OWN 33
+1
33.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 33
OWN 34
+10
32.3%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 23
OWN 44
+24
31.6%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 24 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4668% → 67%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
32.1%
Malik Rosier sacked by Joe Giles-Harris and Ben Humphreys for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 23
0
32.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 16
OWN 23
0
32.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 16
OWN 23
0
32.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.8%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Michael Pinckney return for no gain to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:1770% → 73%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
30.4%
Mark Walton run for 10 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
30.4%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
30.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+25
30.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 25 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
29.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Corey Gaynor) to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+12
29.8%
Malik Rosier run for 12 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
29.6%
Malik Rosier run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
29.1%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
27.3%
Michael Badgley 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 2:5727% → 30%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
26.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
26.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 15 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
27.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 27 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
28.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 5 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
28.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+5
27.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
28.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
27.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
26.8%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
29.9%
Austin Parker 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1372% → 73%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mark WaltonSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
28.1%
Malik Rosier run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
26.8%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+1
26.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 1 yd to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
27.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 41 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4427% → 24%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
26.8%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+15
26.5%
Daniel Jones run for 15 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
26.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 11 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
27.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
27.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-8
26.5%
Daniel Jones sacked by Demetrius Jackson and Trent Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 17
OWN 47
0
23.7%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:3275% → 77%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
25.4%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
24.3%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.0%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
23.8%
Malik Rosier run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+25
23.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for 25 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
21.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
21.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
21.3%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
23.1%
Zach Feagles punt for a loss of 1 yard, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3825% → 23%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
25.0%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
25.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
23.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
22.9%
Austin Parker punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3778% → 80%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
22.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for 8 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+5
21.3%
Malik Rosier run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
20.4%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-8
20.5%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Bryon Fields Jr. return for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2422% → 21%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
21.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
23.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
24.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+4
23.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
21.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0980% → 80%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
19.6%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jeremy McDuffie) to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
19.2%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
18.7%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+3
18.9%
Malik Rosier run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
20.3%
Zach Feagles punt for 28 yds, fair catch by T.J. Rahming at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4520% → 16%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
19.8%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+4
19.2%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
18.3%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+1
16.7%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.4%
Brittain Brown run for no gain to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
18.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
16.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
15.5%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:4784% → 97%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
15.8%
Mark Walton run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
15.1%
Malik Rosier run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
50
+1
14.2%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+49
3.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 49 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:195% → 5%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
4.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
4.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
4.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+10
4.7%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 10 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 4 yds · 3:1197% → 88%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
3.2%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+11
3.0%
Mark Walton run for 11 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
3.0%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
3.1%
Malik Rosier run for 1 yd to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
2.8%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
2.7%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
1.7%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-15
10.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Ahmmon Richards) to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+53
12.0%
Michael Badgley 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FUMBLE
12 plays · 4 yds · 2:094% → 3%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
4.1%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
4.3%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
3.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
3.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+5
3.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
2.8%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
2.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 15
OPP 48
0
2.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
2.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 15
OPP 48
+15
2.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Malek Young) to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
3.1%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Quay Chambers) to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 25
OPP 48
-12
2.5%
Daniel Jones sacked by Pat Bethel for a loss of 12 yards to the Duke 40 Daniel Jones fumbled, forced by Pat Bethel, recovered by MiaFl Pat Bethel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
0.2%
Travis Homer run for 40 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26END OF GAME
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
0.2%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.2%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
0.2%
Quentin Harris run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
0.2%
Quentin Harris run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Nicodem Pierre run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
0.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Keyston FullerSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 9
OWN 0
+2
0.1%
Nicodem Pierre run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:25
Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 07:25
+9.6
TD · Q4 11:02
Malik Rosier pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 49 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
-9.2
FG · Q2 0:03
Austin Parker 36 yd FG GOOD
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com