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TOL

Toledo 30 at Miami 52

MIA
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.7MIA 80.2%Jameson Vest 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 10 · Q2 14:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:08 · Jameson Vest 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+24.3Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:30: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 37 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +11.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Jameson Vest 32 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +6.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:36: Travis Homer run for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +21.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:20: Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +19.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: Diontae Johnson 8 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Logan Woodside Pass to Diontae Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +12.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 11 at MIA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40MIA 4th & 2 at TOL 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08TOL 4th & 7 at MIA 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:03MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48TOL 4th & 27 at MIA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:48MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MIA 4th & 5 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:51TOL 4th & 5 at MIA 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:36TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−3.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, down 15
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:30TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 37, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−3.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:57MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:30TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:36MIA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:20MIA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53MIA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:23MIA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:21TOL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:37TOL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
81.9%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 8 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+5
81.9%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
81.9%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Michael JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
81.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Jon'Vea Johnson) to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+11
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 11 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
81.9%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
81.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-8
81.9%
Logan Woodside sacked by RJ McIntosh for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 46
+5
81.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
81.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:0881% → 82%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
80.8%
Mark Walton run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
80.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 11 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
80.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+10
81.0%
Rosier, M pass incomplete to Berrios, B, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (FRAZIER, K.) 10 yards to the TOLEDO44, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
82.0%
Mark Walton run for 44 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
81.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Mark Walton) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
81.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
81.4%
Logan Woodside run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
81.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Jordan Fisher) to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
81.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+9
81.7%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:3782% → 82%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.5%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+82
81.4%
Mark Walton run for 82 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
82.1%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.0%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
81.9%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 2Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
82.0%
Michael Badgley 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 4:3218% → 20%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.7%
Logan Woodside sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
82.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.4%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to THOMPSON, Cody for 5 yards to the TOLEDO43, out-of-bounds (Knowles, R), PENALTY UM IS 5 yards to the TOLEDO43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 5
OWN 43
0
81.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Art ThompkinsSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
81.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+17
81.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 17 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+38
81.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 38 yds to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.7%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.7%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
80.7%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-5
80.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.2%
Jameson Vest 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
80.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
80.6%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
80.3%
Malik Rosier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
79.8%
Zach Feagles punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
16 plays · 31 yds · 5:0520% → 21%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.7%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
79.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 9 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+11
79.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 11 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
79.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
78.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+12
79.1%
Logan Woodside run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
78.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Malek YoungSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
78.4%
Terry Swanson run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
78.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 15
OPP 0
0
78.4%
WOODSIDE, Logan sacked for loss of 5 yards to the UM25 (Garvin, J), PENALTY UM face mask off-setting, PENALTY TOLEDO holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
78.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 15
OPP 20
-5
78.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Cody Thompson) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 20
OPP 25
-7
79.4%
Logan Woodside sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 27
OPP 32
0
80.5%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 27
OPP 32
+49
78.6%
Jameson Vest 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
78.1%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+7
77.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
77.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
77.9%
Zach Feagles punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:1523% → 35%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
77.4%
Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
77.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Trajan BandySimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+4
78.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 4 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
77.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 9 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
76.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
76.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
76.7%
Terry Swanson run for 26 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
65.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 37 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:3168% → 68%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
67.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Trayone Gray for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
69.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.8%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
68.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+6
67.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
68.4%
Zach Feagles punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 1:5132% → 46%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
67.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
67.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+30
68.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
50
+18
64.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 18 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
60.9%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
60.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+6
61.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 6 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
60.7%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-1
60.9%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+5
60.8%
VEST, Jameson field goal attempt from 37 MISSED - wide left,, clock 00:00, PENALTY UM OFF (Redwine, S) 5 yards to the UM15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+32
54.4%
Jameson Vest 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.3%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
60.9%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
60.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 20 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
63.5%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
50
0
64.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
50
0
63.6%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
50
0
62.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
56.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
55.1%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
55.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
55.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-1
55.6%
Logan Woodside sacked by Chad Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+16
57.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
50
+7
53.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
53.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-2
54.1%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
55.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 2:5455% → 76%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
54.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 20 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
55.7%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+19
57.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Travis Homer for 19 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
59.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 24 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
61.1%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Trayone GraySimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-5
61.0%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 15
OPP 28
-10
56.9%
Rosier, M rush for 28 yards to the TOLEDO0, clock 06:42, PENALTY UM holding (McDermott, K) 10 yards to the TOLEDO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 25
OPP 38
+7
55.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 7 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 18
OPP 31
+19
54.4%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mike Harley for 19 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
75.8%
Travis Homer run for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
70.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 7 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
69.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+8
71.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 8 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
69.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 14
OWN 29
-14
71.2%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JOHNSON, Di. for 14 yards to the TOLEDO43, out-of-bounds (Johnson, J), PENALTY TOLEDO tripping (HARRIS, Bryce) 14 yards to the TOLEDO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 28
OWN 15
0
71.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 28
OWN 15
+15
72.4%
Logan Woodside run for 15 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:1672% → 89%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
71.5%
Malik Rosier sacked by Marquise Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+55
69.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 55 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jordan FisherSimilar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
86.9%
Logan Woodside run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 36 Logan Woodside fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Sheldrick Redwine , return for 7 yds to the Toled 32 MIAMI FL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sheldrick Redwine) to the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:0989% → 95%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
89.0%
Mark Walton run for 17 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 19 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Anthony MotenSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
92.8%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the Toled 33Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:2395% → 99%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
94.8%
Mark Walton run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Malik Rosier pass incomplete to Lawrence Cager, broken up by Ja'Wuan WoodleySimilar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
95.1%
Trayone Gray run for 9 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
95.0%
Malik Rosier run for 2 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
95.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dionte Mullins for 14 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
95.2%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 15 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
95.2%
Rosier, M pass incomplete to Cager, L, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (CLARK, Justin) 13 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:021% → 6%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
98.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 21 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
98.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 12 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.8%
Art Thompkins run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+15
98.8%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., QB hurry by Jackson, J, PENALTY UM pass interference (Carter, A) 15 yards to the UM25, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
98.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 19 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.9%
Diontae Johnson 6 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.9%
Malik Rosier sacked by Zach Quinn for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+4
95.8%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Mark Walton for 4 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+35
95.8%
Malik Rosier pass intercepted Jordan Williams return for 35 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.0%
Diontae Johnson 8 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Logan Woodside Pass to Diontae Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3686% → 90%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.3%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
87.1%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 18 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
88.2%
Mark Walton run for 12 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
88.6%
Malik Rosier pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 14 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
89.8%
Malik Rosier 23 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · -17 yds · 0:0021% → 18%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
78.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
77.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Sheldrick RedwineSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
78.0%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to THOMPKINS, Art for 5 yards to the TOLEDO37 (Quarterman, S), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HARRIS, Bryce) 10 yards to the TOLEDO22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
79.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 20
OWN 22
0
80.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the Toled 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Toled Logan WoodsideSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 37
OWN 5
0
82.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:4891% → 95%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
90.9%
Mark Walton run for 15 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
91.1%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
93.0%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
93.0%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
95.4%
Travis Homer 15 Yd Run (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
86.8%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.4%
Michael Julian pass complete to Neru N'Shaka for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
87.3%
Michael Julian pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
88.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:36
Travis Homer run for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+21.4
TD · Q3 0:20
Malik Rosier pass complete to Dayall Harris for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q4 7:37
Diontae Johnson 8 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Logan Woodside Pass to Diontae Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com