2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scorePITT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:19 · Ryan Winslow punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08: Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by A.J. Gray — PITT win probability +7.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:51: KirVonte Benson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +8.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Alex Kessman 55 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +6.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 6:40: Quaide Weimerskirch run for 19 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +9.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:37: KirVonte Benson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 9:53PITT 4th & 9 at GT 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call32.2%51% to makePunt32.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:53GT 4th & 2 at PITT 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt68.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:19PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snapGo for it30.4%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q2 13:35PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 48, down 7Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it28.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:05GT 4th & 6 at GT 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.5%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.9%average punt
- Q2 6:08PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it36.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.3%average punt
- Q3 13:12GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snapGo for it67.9%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.3%average punt
- Q3 12:59PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 20, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it28.3%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.7%average punt
- Q3 4:36PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00PITT 4th & 25 at PITT 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it10.8%−2.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q4 14:05GT 4th & 1 at GT 30, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it88.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.1%−1.7average punt
- Q4 7:18PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 8, down 11Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:29PITT 4th & 14 at GT 35, down 18Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%−0.419% to convertField goal2.2%45% to makePunt1.8%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:35GT 4th & 1 at GT 36, up 18Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:24PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:03PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 40, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:19PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.6%97% to makeGo for two30.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:29GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:48GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.7%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:51GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:40GT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:37GT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPITTDrive 1TD6 plays · 78 yds · 2:3229% → 30%
GTDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 12:13
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-1
70.3%
KirVonte Benson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 33 KirVonte Benson fumbled, recovered by Pitt Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3MISSED FG4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5331% → 31%
Q1 10:46
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
69.1%
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete to Maurice Ffrench, broken up by Desmond BranchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2469% → 71%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
GTDrive 6TD13 plays · 79 yds · 5:5970% → 75%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
70.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 1 yd to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+9
70.6%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 19 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by GTech TaQuon Marshall , return for 9 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
72.7%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD7 plays · 21 yds · 2:4074% → 68%
Q2 8:05
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+80
68.1%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 39 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 80 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9FUMBLE6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0069% → 71%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
69.4%
Marshall, T. pass intercepted by Jackson, D. at the UP31, Jackson, D. return to the UP31, PENALTY UP roughing passer (Brightwell, S.) 15 yards to the UP46, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
70.6%
Jerry Howard run for 5 yds to the Pitt 43 Jerry Howard fumbled, recovered by Pitt Avonte Maddox , return for 7 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD16 plays · 80 yds · 4:1568% → 79%
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
68.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 10 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+9
68.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to KirVonte Benson for 9 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
68.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Keyshon Camp) to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FG7 plays · 38 yds · 0:4723% → 31%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
76.7%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 22 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
75.8%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 11 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 1:4870% → 68%
Q3 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 56 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
GTDrive 15TD8 plays · 57 yds · 4:0474% → 84%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
75.3%
Quaide Weimerskirch run for 11 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5718% → 14%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
82.3%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 12 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
81.5%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Quadree Henderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+6
86.4%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Matt Flanagan for 6 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
85.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17FUMBLE6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0086% → 87%
PITTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 1:0114% → 11%
Q3 1:01
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+5
87.7%
Ben Dinucci pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 5 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-15
87.0%
Ben Dinucci sacked by Antonio Simmons for a loss of 15 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 32
+12
89.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 59 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 12 yds to the GTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
88.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FUMBLE3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 11:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
88.4%
Damar Hamlin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 32 Damar Hamlin fumbled, recovered by GTech Anree Saint-AmourSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21FUMBLE6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 10:34
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
91.9%
KirVonte Benson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 4 KirVonte Benson fumbled, forced by Keyshon Camp, recovered by Pitt Oluwaseun IdowuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 6%
GTDrive 23TD1 play · 47 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 44 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 4 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+16
97.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 16 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
97.8%
Max Browne pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 20 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-4
97.7%
Max Browne sacked by Antonio Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+8
97.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Chris Clark for 8 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q4 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-3
99.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26END OF GAME9 plays · 35 yds · 2:211% → 1%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 2 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
99.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 1 yd to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+4
99.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 4 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+14
99.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 14 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 5 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.5%
Max Browne pass complete to Darrin Hall for 14 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:40
Quaide Weimerskirch run for 19 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q2 0:51
KirVonte Benson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK)
+8.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08
Ben Dinucci pass incomplete, broken up by A.J. Gray
-7.5