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DUKE

Duke 27 at North Carolina 17

UNC
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:35 · Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the UNC 14 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (7 Yards) to the Duke 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+6.3Garbage-time factor+2.6Score differential+0.7Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:51: Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 28 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 45 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +15.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:41: Chazz Surratt run for 56 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +20.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:09: Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +33.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:01: Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK) — DUKE win probability +28.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 11DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33DUKE 4th & 9 at UNC 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:40DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, down 4
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:38DUKE 4th & 6 at UNC 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:33UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:01DUKE 4th & 10 at UNC 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−1.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:03UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22DUKE 4th & 3 at UNC 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:57DUKE 4th & 5 at UNC 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−11.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:36DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 14, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−3.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:48DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:48UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−6.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:22DUKE 4th & 5 at UNC 24, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−10.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:53UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 24, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:16UNC 4th & 12 at DUKE 44, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:34UNC 4th & 12 at DUKE 15, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:51DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:09UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:41UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:09DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−2.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:01DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
45.3%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Mike Ramsay and Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
45.3%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
45.3%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+11
45.3%
Tom Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for 11 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
45.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
45.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 49 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
45.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
45.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-3
45.5%
Daniel Jones sacked by M.J. Stewart for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
45.5%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
45.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
45.7%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
46.5%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-9
46.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (-9 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+2
46.4%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+14
46.2%
Chazz Surratt run for 14 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
46.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
46.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
46.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+23
46.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 23 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.2%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
46.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-7
46.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Jason Strowbridge and Cayson Collins for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
47.1%
Austin Parker punt for 44 yds , Austin Proehl returns for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:1747% → 50%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+47
47.3%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Austin Proehl for 47 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
48.6%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
48.6%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+7
48.3%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 7 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
48.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves, broken up by Jeremy McDuffieSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+10
48.6%
Chazz Surratt run for 10 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
48.6%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
48.6%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
48.2%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Mike Ramsay for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
49.9%
Freeman Jones 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5950% → 56%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.8%
Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+38
49.0%
Brittain Brown run for 38 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
44.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 28 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4646% → 45%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
45.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
46.0%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
45.5%
Chazz Surratt run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
45.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:3554% → 60%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.9%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
45.5%
Brittain Brown run for 8 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
45.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+14
44.9%
Daniel Jones run for 14 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay ChambersSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
44.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 19 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
44.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+9
44.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 9 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
44.0%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
44.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+1
44.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Keyston Fuller for 1 yd to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
40.0%
Austin Parker 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
40.7%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-8
40.8%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Terrell Lucas for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 15
OWN 9
0
39.7%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 15
OWN 9
0
39.3%
Tom Sheldon punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
36.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by K.J. SailsSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
36.9%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
37.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
38.8%
Austin Parker punt for 27 yds, downed at the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
39.3%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
39.3%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
38.4%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
37.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 4:4464% → 65%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
50
+2
36.2%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
36.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Myles WolfolkSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+12
36.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
36.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+11
36.1%
Brittain Brown run for 11 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
35.9%
Brittain Brown run for 7 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
35.9%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
36.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
35.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 12Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+6
33.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 6 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
34.6%
Austin Parker 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jason Strowbridge N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:1339% → 55%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
38.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 35 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
55.4%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 45 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
47.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 7:0352% → 58%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
48.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
48.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
49.3%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
47.7%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
45.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
46.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
45.6%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+9
45.3%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
45.3%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
45.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremiah ClarkeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+20
45.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
44.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
44.5%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
45.4%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
44.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
41.7%
Austin Parker 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1645% → 66%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
44.7%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
44.2%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
43.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordon Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jordan Cunningham, broken up by Bryon Fields Jr.Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
45.3%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+56
65.9%
Chazz Surratt run for 56 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
62.5%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+10
62.5%
Brittain Brown run for 10 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
61.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
60.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-7
62.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
65.0%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
65.7%
Chazz Surratt run for 17 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
67.9%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+1
66.0%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+3
64.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+50
63.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the UNC 14 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (7 Yards) to the Duke 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5836% → 33%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
64.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
64.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
65.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 14
+7
67.3%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 21 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ayden Bonilla) to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.7%
Chazz Surratt run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.2%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
65.8%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+8
64.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 48 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for 8 yds to the Duke 43 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Hunter Crafford) to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
60.5%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
58.7%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
58.8%
Brittain Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
63.1%
Austin Parker punt for 33 yds , M.J. Stewart returns for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
67.5%
Jordon Brown run for 8 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
69.4%
Chazz Surratt run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
68.1%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 34 Chazz Surratt fumbled, recovered by NCaro Chazz SurrattSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-2
67.6%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-4
65.9%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Drew Jordan for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:1336% → 78%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+45
64.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 45 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.6%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
56.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+2
58.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+12
61.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 12 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
55.6%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+7
55.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24INT TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0335% → 10%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
35.2%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
34.3%
Chazz Surratt run for 10 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
36.0%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 24 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
41.8%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
39.0%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+61
10.3%
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25DOWNS
21 plays · 70 yds · 3:199% → 3%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
8.7%
Surratt, C rush up middle for 12 yards to the NC34 (Saxton II, A), PENALTY NC illegal block 11 yards to the NC11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+3
8.6%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+10
8.4%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 10 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
8.2%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Josh CabreraSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+15
7.8%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 15 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
10.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 19 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
7.5%
Chazz Surratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
7.3%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Cam Dillard) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+1
6.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 19
OWN 49
+7
5.8%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 7 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+17
3.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 17 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
5.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
6.1%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Brandon FrittsSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-2
6.1%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
3.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+7
3.1%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 7 yds to the Duke 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:09
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
-33.8
TD · Q4 4:01
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields Jr. return for 61 yds for a TD, (Austin Parker KICK)
-28.7
TD · Q3 5:41
Chazz Surratt run for 56 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com