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CLEM

Clemson 47 at Louisville 21

LOU
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreCLEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:20 · Will Spiers punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense−1.9Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.6Pregame prior−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:06: Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 79 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED) — CLEM win probability +9.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:28: Greg Huegel 49 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +4.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:57: Lamar Jackson pass intercepted for a TD Dorian O'Daniel return for 44 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +10.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:45: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 36 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +6.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +5.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:40LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11CLEM 4th & 1 at LOU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.1%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:53LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20CLEM 4th & 23 at CLEM 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:14CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:50LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:52CLEM 4th & 4 at LOU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:22LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:57CLEM 4th & 2 at LOU 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−0.9
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:31LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−2.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:17LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:28CLEM 4th & 3 at LOU 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:29CLEM 4th & 15 at LOU 39, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:30LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 49, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:30LOU 4th & 3 at CLEM 44, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:57LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 19, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:47CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 45, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:11LOU 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:45CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:22LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:06CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:57CLEM Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:16CLEM Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:45LOU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:56CLEM Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:37LOU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:13CLEM Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0545% → 45%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
44.8%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
45.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
45.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
45.1%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:4355% → 57%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
45.1%
C.J. Fuller run for 4 yds to the Clem 25Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
45.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
45.3%
C.J. Fuller run for 3 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
45.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+40
45.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 40 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
45.0%
C.J. Fuller run for 5 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
45.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
45.2%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
45.5%
C.J. Fuller run for 3 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
43.4%
Kelly Bryant run for 8 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4244% → 43%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
44.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
43.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
43.2%
Mason King punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2256% → 56%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
43.6%
Kelly Bryant run for 5 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
43.2%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Diondre OvertonSimilar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+16
43.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 16 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
42.6%
C.J. Fuller run for 1 yd to the Clem 45Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
42.5%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to C.J. FullerSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-14
42.7%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 14 yards to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 23
OWN 31
0
43.6%
Will Spiers punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 1:5343% → 49%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
42.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+15
42.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
42.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
50
+19
44.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 19 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
44.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Tanner Muse) to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
48.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:5053% → 53%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-5
47.2%
Tavien Feaster run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 4Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+9
47.4%
Tavien Feaster run for 9 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+11
47.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 11 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
46.8%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Deon CainSimilar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
46.9%
Tavien Feaster run for 12 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
46.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 4 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
45.8%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Deon Cain, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
46.3%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Diondre OvertonSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+3
47.3%
Will Spiers punt for 58 yds , Jaylen Smith returns for 3 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1748% → 47%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
47.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 15 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
48.0%
Malik Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-9
47.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+1
47.0%
Mason King punt for 44 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 1 yd to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:4954% → 53%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
46.1%
Kelly Bryant run for 11 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
45.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tee Higgins for 8 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
45.3%
Adam Choice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+12
45.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 12 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
45.0%
Kelly Bryant sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+7
46.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tavien Feaster for 7 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
45.9%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Ray-Ray McCloud, broken up by Jonathan GreenardSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+5
47.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
46.8%
Greg Huegel 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2349% → 48%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
49.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
48.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
47.8%
Mason King punt for 41 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 15 yds to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2154% → 57%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.1%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Ray-Ray McCloud, broken up by Khane PassSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
46.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Milan Richard for 11 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
45.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 8 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+14
45.1%
Kelly Bryant run for 14 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
44.4%
C.J. Fuller run for 7 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+1
44.4%
Kelly Bryant run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
44.3%
Kelly Bryant run for no gain to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
43.0%
Greg Huegel 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:1344% → 42%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
44.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 12 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 2 yds to the Lvile 35 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dez Fitzpatrick) to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 18
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 18
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 18
OWN 25
0
42.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 18
OWN 25
-7
42.4%
Mason King punt for 58 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:1456% → 64%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
44.1%
Tavien Feaster run for 4 yds to the Clem 14Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
44.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 5 yds to the Clem 19Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
44.6%
Kelly Bryant run for 2 yds to the Clem 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
35.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 79 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4235% → 34%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.2%
Malik Williams run for 14 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
36.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
36.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
35.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
34.1%
Mason King punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hunter Renfrow at the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 2:4465% → 73%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
35.0%
Kelly Bryant run for 4 yds to the Clem 24 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Simpson) to the Clem 14Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 16
OWN 14
+3
35.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 3 yds to the Clem 17Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
35.2%
Adam Choice run for 3 yds to the Clem 20Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.3%
Bryant, Kelly pass incomplete to Cain, Deon, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside 5 yards to the CLEMSON36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 5
OWN 36
0
32.2%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Deon CainSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+16
32.1%
Tavien Feaster run for 16 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
30.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 10 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
30.4%
Kelly Bryant run for 7 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
30.8%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Ray-Ray McCloud, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
31.6%
Kelly Bryant pass incomplete to Deon Cain, broken up by Chucky WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
27.1%
Greg Huegel 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1629% → 30%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
29.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 11 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
29.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
29.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Dexter Lawrence for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2470% → 73%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.8%
C.J. Fuller run for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
29.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 15 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
26.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 11 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
26.5%
Tavien Feaster run for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
26.3%
Kelly Bryant run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
25.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 3 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-9
25.5%
Kelly Bryant sacked by London Iakopo for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
26.9%
Will Spiers punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17INT TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2227% → 16%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
27.4%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
27.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
26.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
27.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Charles Standberry) to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+12
26.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 12 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+44
15.7%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted for a TD Dorian O'Daniel return for 44 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2316% → 15%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by Kendall JosephSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
16.0%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
15.0%
Mason King punt for 34 yds, downed at the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:0291% → 99%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
9.3%
Tavien Feaster run for 4 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
8.7%
Tavien Feaster run for 7 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
8.2%
Kelly Bryant sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 39Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+3
8.2%
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Clem 42Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+16
8.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 16 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
6.5%
Tavien Feaster run for 26 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
6.0%
Tavien Feaster run for 9 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
5.8%
C.J. Fuller run for 6 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.3%
C.J. Fuller run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.1%
C.J. Fuller run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.4%
Kelly Bryant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:162% → 8%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
1.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
1.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
1.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
1.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 5 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
2.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 3 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
1.9%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
2.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
8.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 36 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3696% → 99%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
4.2%
Kelly Bryant run for 1 yd to the Clem 22Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
4.1%
Adam Choice run for 6 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+33
4.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Diondre Overton for 33 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
0.8%
Adam Choice run for 39 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 4:061% → 5%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
0.7%
Malik Williams run for 12 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
0.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Albert Huggins for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+2
0.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+22
0.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 22 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
0.5%
Malik Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+11
0.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 11 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+30
0.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 30 yds to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith, broken up by K'Von WallaceSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
0.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Clem 8Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
5.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1298% → 100%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.2%
Travis Etienne run for 4 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
2.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (Sean Pollard) to the Clem 24Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
1.8%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (Taylor Hearn) to the Clem 19Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+81
0.2%
Travis Etienne run for 81 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
0.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-3
0.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Sterling Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Mason King punt for 43 yds, downed at the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
0.2%
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
0.2%
Travis Etienne run for 5 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Will Swinney for no gain to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Will Spiers punt for 46 yds, downed at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 86 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
0.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 9 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 1
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+78
0.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 78 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
0.1%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 5Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Denzel JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
0.2%
Travis Etienne run for 4 yds to the Clem 9Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+2
0.2%
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds to the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:57
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted for a TD Dorian O'Daniel return for 44 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 4:06
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 79 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel PAT BLOCKED)
-9
TD · Q4 13:45
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 36 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com