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LOU

Louisville 47 at North Carolina 35

UNC
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:16 · Tom Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 8 yds to the Lvile 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior−18.0Home team on offense−4.7Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:52: Lamar Jackson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +9.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:40: Blanton Creque kickoff for 59 yds , Anthony Ratliff-Williams return for 94 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +10.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:41: Brandon Harris pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 22 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +21.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:50: Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LOU win probability +22.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:32: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +11.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:09LOU 4th & 6 at UNC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44LOU 4th & 4 at UNC 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:12UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:52LOU 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07UNC 4th & 1 at LOU 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−1.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:07UNC 4th & 24 at UNC 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:14LOU 4th & 7 at UNC 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.9%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:16UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:23LOU 4th & 17 at UNC 43, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:29UNC 4th & 1 at LOU 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−5.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−17.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:41UNC 4th & 4 at LOU 4, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:11UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:03LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:26UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:16LOU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:52LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:40UNC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:41UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:50LOU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:32LOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:06LOU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:31UNC Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:4682% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
17.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
17.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jordan Davis for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+21
18.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 21 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
18.3%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
18.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
18.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-5
19.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Robbie Bell) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
19.2%
Blanton Creque 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:4020% → 21%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+54
19.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 54 yds to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
19.9%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
20.3%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q1 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.3%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 1 yd for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5979% → 78%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.2%
Malik Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
21.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
21.5%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Smith, Jaylen, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Sails, K.J.) 15 yards to the UNC45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
21.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 6 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
21.6%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
22.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+12
22.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
22.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+17
22.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 17 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
22.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-2
22.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
21.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3822% → 23%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
22.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Austin Proehl for 14 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
22.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 5 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-3
23.2%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+5
22.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
22.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 48 yds, downed at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 85 yds · 5:1277% → 78%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
23.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Micky Crum for 21 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
23.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 9 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-3
22.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+22
23.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
22.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
22.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+16
23.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 16 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
22.8%
Traveon Samuel run for 10 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
23.0%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
23.1%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
21.9%
Blanton Creque 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1923% → 33%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
23.1%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 37 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
24.7%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-1
25.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
24.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+8
24.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Carl Tucker for 8 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
25.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 16 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.0%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 5 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
22.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 75 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 2:5424% → 23%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
24.0%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
23.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Austin Proehl for 13 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
25.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-30
25.4%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 30 yards to the NCaro 23 Chazz Surratt fumbled, forced by Jonathan Greenard, recovered by NCaro Michael Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 34
OWN 23
+5
22.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 29
OWN 28
+5
22.8%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 24
OWN 33
0
22.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 66 yds, downed at the Lvile 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:4677% → 77%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
23.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Charles Standberry for 15 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
22.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 12 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
22.5%
Malik Williams run for 11 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
21.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 12 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
21.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
21.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
21.2%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
21.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
21.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
22.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0325% → 24%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
25.2%
Chazz Surratt run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
26.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
24.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
24.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 51 yds, downed at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:5176% → 78%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
23.7%
Bonnafon, Reggie pass incomplete to Jackson, Lamar, PENALTY UNC personal foul (Clarke, Jeremiah) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
23.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
23.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
23.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
22.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
24.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+12
25.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 12 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
21.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 1:3626% → 25%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
26.3%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
28.1%
Brandon Harris run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
27.7%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-5
26.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Cole Holcomb) to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+8
25.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 49 yds , Reggie Bonnafon returns for 8 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:1876% → 87%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
24.2%
Malik Williams run for 10 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
23.4%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+11
22.6%
Malik Williams run for 11 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
22.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 8 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+43
13.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 43 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:0776% → 75%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
24.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+18
25.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 18 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
21.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+15
21.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
21.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 15
OPP 41
0
22.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 15
OPP 41
-2
23.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Cayson Collins and Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 17
OPP 43
+20
25.4%
Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Austin Proehl at the NCaro 7 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Chucky Williams) to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:3428% → 54%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
27.6%
Brandon Harris run for 7 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+11
28.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 11 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
29.6%
Brandon Harris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
28.9%
Harris, Brandon pass incomplete to Perry, Devin, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Washington, Trumaine) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
31.4%
Austin Proehl pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
31.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Dazz Newsome for no gain to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+14
29.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 14 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
32.9%
Jordon Brown run for 5 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
53.9%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 22 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4553% → 79%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
47.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 21 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
43.8%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-3
43.0%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 6
50
+12
44.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 12 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
44.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 12 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
42.6%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+9
43.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
43.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
43.5%
Malik Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:1629% → 30%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
29.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 16 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
32.9%
Brandon Harris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
50
+12
33.5%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 12 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
34.1%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
33.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Carl Tucker) to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-4
31.7%
Brandon Harris sacked by Henry Famurewa for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+18
29.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 18 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
29.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:4878% → 93%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
22.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 17 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
20.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 21 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
18.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
18.3%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+30
7.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4213% → 11%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+40
13.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 25 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Jawon Pass) to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
14.3%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Lvile 27 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Cunningham) to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 16
OPP 37
+27
12.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Austin Proehl for 27 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
14.2%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
14.1%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
11.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 4Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
10.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 3 yds Brandon Fritts fumbled, forced by Chucky Williams, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 3:2893% → 99%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
6.9%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+9
6.6%
Malik Williams run for 9 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+74
6.3%
Malik Williams run for 74 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
5.3%
Reggie Bonnafon run for no gain to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
4.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
1.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:202% → 7%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
2.1%
Jordon Brown run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
2.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jordon Brown for 8 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
2.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jake Bargas for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
1.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jake Bargas for 9 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
1.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Devin PerrySimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
1.9%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+12
1.8%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
2.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Jake Bargas for 23 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.4%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.3%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:50
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-22.4
TD · Q3 3:41
Brandon Harris pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 22 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
+21
TD · Q4 9:32
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com