2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreJXST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:37 · Shawn Davis 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:26: Bryant Horn pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade Stinnett KICK) — JXST win probability +4.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:20: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 27 yds for a TD JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +6.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:26: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 23 yds for a TD JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +5.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:57: TaQuon Marshall pass complete to J.J. Green for 10 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis PAT MISSED) — GT win probability +4.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:45: Jerry Howard run for 65 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis KICK) — GT win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 14:53GT 4th & 10 at JXST 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%average punt
- Q1 12:23JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q1 5:37GT 4th & 10 at JXST 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snapGo for it83.1%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call83.3%80% to makePunt82.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 12:21GT 4th & 7 at GT 46, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it77.7%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.9%average punt
- Q2 9:08JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 21, up 4Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snapGo for it23.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:18GT 4th & 1 at JXST 36, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.9%71% to convertField goal72.9%−2.042% to makePunt72.6%−2.3average punt
- Q3 8:57JXST 4th & 18 at JXST 17, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it7.4%−1.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q3 0:00JXST 4th & 10 at GT 10, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.224% to convertField goalTheir call1.4%88% to makePunt0.4%−1.1average punt
- Q4 9:18JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 13, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:15GT 4th & 17 at GT 37, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:02JXST 4th & 18 at JXST 12, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:26JXST Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.2%97% to makeGo for two22.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:20GT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.6%97% to makeGo for two78.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:26GT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two85.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:57GT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call92.0%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:45GT Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:27GT Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
87.9%
Qua Searcy run for 11 yds to the JaxSt 34 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the JaxSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
87.2%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Demontez Terry for 9 yds to the JaxSt 20Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
87.2%
Bryant Horn run for a loss of 7 yards to the JaxSt 25 Bryant Horn fumbled, forced by Antonio Simmons, recovered by JaxSt Bryant HornSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
87.2%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Demontez Terry for 1 yd to the JaxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3FG9 plays · 44 yds · 4:0887% → 86%
JXSTDrive 4TD17 plays · 75 yds · 8:1115% → 22%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.5%
HORN,Bryant rush for loss of 1 yard to the JSU24 (Branch, D.), PENALTY GT offside defense (Simmons, A.) 5 yards to the JSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
85.3%
Bryant Horn sacked by Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 4 yards to the JaxSt 34Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+19
85.5%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Roc Thomas for 19 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+6
84.7%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 6 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+6
82.5%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Demontez Terry for 6 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.1%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade Stinnett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
79.7%
TaQuon Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 29 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by GTech J.J. Green , return for 6 yds to the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 9:08
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
77.6%
Bryant Horn pass incomplete to Roc Thomas, broken up by Lawrence AustinSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+6
78.3%
Dean Kelly punt for 37 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 6 yds to the GTech 27 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, illegal block (Terrell Lewis) to the GTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7DOWNS9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 7:18
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+10
76.0%
Marshall, T. pass incomplete to Sanders, A., PENALTY JSU holding (NEAL,Siran) 10 yards to the JSU45, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8INT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
GTDrive 9TD2 plays · 32 yds · 0:1475% → 82%
JXSTDrive 10END OF HALF9 plays · 38 yds · 1:1421% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
GTDrive 12TD4 plays · 16 yds · 1:5082% → 87%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
81.9%
Marshall, T. rush for 3 yards to the JSU13 (BRIDGES,Marlon), PENALTY GT holding (Bryan, W.) 10 yards to the JSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+23
87.1%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 23 yds for a TD JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Shawn Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13FUMBLE2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.5%
Bryant Horn run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 29 Bryant Horn fumbled, recovered by GTech A.J. GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2288% → 93%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
88.1%
Marshall, T. pass incomplete to Jeune, R., PENALTY JSU holding (NEAL,Siran) 10 yards to the JSU19, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+12
86.2%
Davis, S. field goal attempt from 40 GOOD, clock 10:15, PENALTY JSU roughing the kicker (5D) 12 yards to the JSU11, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
88.3%
TaQuon Marshall run for no gain to the JaxSt 10 TaQuon Marshall fumbled, recovered by GTech TaQuon MarshallSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
92.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to J.J. Green for 10 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
GTDrive 16TD2 plays · 64 yds · 0:5294% → 98%
JXSTDrive 17FG13 plays · 65 yds · 5:453% → 2%
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
97.4%
HORN,Bryant pass incomplete to DAVIDSON,Shaq, PENALTY GT pass interference (Austin, Lan.) 15 yards to the JSU45, 1ST DOWN JSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
97.0%
Bryant Horn pass complete to Krenwick Sanders for 23 yds to the GTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:3399% → 100%
JXSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:18
2ND & 1
OWN 18
-5
99.9%
Bryant Horn sacked by Antwan Owens for a loss of 5 yards to the JaxSt 13Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Dean Kelly punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 29 , Brad Stewart returns for no gain to the GTech 29 Brad Stewart fumbled, recovered by GTech Brad Stewart , return for no gain to the GTech 13 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Victor Alexander) to the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
JXSTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
GTDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 27 yds for a TD JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Shawn Davis KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q3 12:26
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 23 yds for a TD JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Shawn Davis KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q3 8:57
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to J.J. Green for 10 yds for a TD, (Shawn Davis PAT MISSED)
+4.5