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W&M

William & Mary 10 at Virginia 28

UVA
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadW&M aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreW&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.6UVA 94.0%Kurt Benkert pass complete to AndreLevrone for 34 yds for a TD, (A.J.Mejia KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 14 · Q2 1:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:31 · Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 34 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+31.8Home team on offense+12.4Garbage-time factor+3.5Score differential+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:08: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 17 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:50: Tommy McKee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kris Hooper KICK) — W&M win probability +5.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:50: Kris Hooper kickoff for 62 yds , Joe Reed return for 21 yds to the Virg 24 — UVA win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: W&M has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q4 4:28: Kurt Benkert sacked by Matt Ahola and Bill Murray for a loss of 1 yard to the WmMry 26 — UVA win probability +3.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:55: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK) — UVA win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9W&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35W&M 4th & 6 at W&M 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22W&M 4th & 5 at W&M 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 15 at W&M 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07W&M 4th & 14 at W&M 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:08UVA 4th & 10 at W&M 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:08W&M 4th & 2 at W&M 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:31UVA 4th & 9 at W&M 34, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:12W&M 4th & 1 at W&M 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:27W&M 4th & 1 at UVA 23, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:02W&M 4th & 2 at W&M 38, down 18
    Close callPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:43UVA 4th & 20 at W&M 34, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:59W&M 4th & 3 at W&M 27, down 18
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 7 at W&M 29, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:52W&M 4th & 4 at UVA 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:52W&M 4th & 6 at UVA 10, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:48UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:55UVA 4th & 1 at W&M 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4W&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:27UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:31UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:08UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:50W&M Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:55UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
96.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ben Hogg for 8 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-4
96.3%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
96.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 31
-5
96.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
96.3%
Lester Coleman punt for 40 yds, downed at the WmMry 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.1%
Noah Giles run for 6 yds to the WmMry 40Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+4
96.1%
Noah Giles run for 4 yds to the WmMry 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
96.1%
Tommy McKee pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 8 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
96.0%
Tommy McKee run for no gain to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
96.1%
Noah Giles run for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
96.1%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WmMry 48Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+6
96.1%
Tommy McKee punt for 38 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 6 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:4095% → 95%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.4%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
95.4%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Arman Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
95.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 10 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
95.4%
Daniel Hamm run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
50
+5
95.5%
WILLIAM & MARY Penalty, encroachment (5 Yards) to the WmMry 45Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+8
95.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 8 yds to the WmMry 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
95.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds Olamide Zaccheaus fumbled, forced by Nate Atkins, recovered by Virg Olamide Zaccheaus for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
95.5%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the WmMry 27Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+5
95.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the WmMry 22Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+12
95.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds to the WmMry 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
95.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 9 yds to the WmMry 1Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.5%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the WmMry 1Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
94.8%
Tommy McKee pass complete to DeVonte Dedmon for 3 yds to the WmMry 19Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
94.9%
Jaret Anderson run for 4 yds to the WmMry 23Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+3
94.9%
Tommy McKee pass complete to Jack Armstrong for 3 yds to the WmMry 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
94.8%
Jaret Anderson run for 5 yds to the WmMry 31Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
94.8%
Jaret Anderson run for no gain to the WmMry 31Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
94.9%
Tommy McKee pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Tommy McKee punt for 37 yds, downed at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:0394% → 94%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
94.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
94.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
94.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+12
94.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds to the WmMry 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
94.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for a loss of 5 yards to the WmMry 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
94.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Denzel DykesSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to De'Vante Cross, broken up by Isaiah LasterSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
93.9%
Lester Coleman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeVonte Dedmon at the WmMry 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:077% → 7%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
93.5%
Noah Giles run for 10 yds to the WmMry 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
93.4%
Tommy McKee pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
93.5%
Noah Giles run for 3 yds to the WmMry 21Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-7
93.6%
Tommy McKee sacked by Malcolm Cook for a loss of 7 yards to the WmMry 14Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+1
93.2%
Tommy McKee punt for 30 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 1 yd to the WmMry 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4894% → 93%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
93.5%
Chris Sharp run for a loss of 4 yards to the WmMry 47Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
93.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+22
93.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 22 yds to the WmMry 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
93.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the WmMry 18Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
93.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-7
93.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for a loss of 7 yards to the WmMry 25Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
92.6%
A.J. Mejia 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.3%
Tommy McKee run for 11 yds to the WmMry 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.0%
Jaret Anderson run for no gain to the WmMry 36Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
92.2%
DeVonte Dedmon run for no gain to the WmMry 36Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.5%
Tommy McKee run for 8 yds to the WmMry 44Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
92.3%
Tommy McKee punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5892% → 94%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
92.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-10
92.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 25Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+24
91.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 24 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
92.6%
Daniel Hamm run for 16 yds to the WmMry 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
92.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the WmMry 34 Daniel Hamm fumbled, forced by Josh Dulaney,Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
92.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+34
94.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 34 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:196% → 6%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Noah Giles run for no gain to the WmMry 25Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.0%
Noah Giles run for 8 yds to the WmMry 33Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
93.8%
Noah Giles run for 1 yd to the WmMry 34Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Tommy McKee punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
95.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
95.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
95.2%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
94.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-2
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 13FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:336% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.3%
Tommy McKee pass complete to Daniel Kuzjak for 5 yds to the WmMry 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
94.2%
Tommy McKee run for 7 yds to the WmMry 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
94.2%
Tommy McKee run for a loss of 3 yards to the WmMry 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+28
94.5%
Tommy McKee pass complete to Andrew Caskin for 28 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
93.6%
Jaret Anderson run for 7 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
92.4%
Jaret Anderson run for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
92.7%
Jaret Anderson run for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
91.3%
Kris Hooper 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:0993% → 97%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
92.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
92.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 4
50
+13
92.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 13 yds to the WmMry 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 15 yds to the WmMry 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
93.0%
Daniel Hamm run for 5 yds to the WmMry 17Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
97.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 17 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
96.1%
Tommy McKee pass complete to Daniel Kuzjak for 16 yds to the WmMry 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Tommy McKee pass incomplete to Jack Armstrong, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
96.1%
Tommy McKee run for 1 yd to the WmMry 31Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+7
96.2%
Tommy McKee run for 7 yds to the WmMry 38Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Tommy McKee punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
50
+5
97.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the WmMry 45Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
97.1%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the WmMry 42Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+18
97.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 18 yds to the WmMry 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
97.1%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Nate Atkins for a loss of 15 yards to the WmMry 39Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 25
OPP 39
0
97.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, intentional grounding (Kurt Benkert) to the WmMry 39Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 25
OPP 39
0
97.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Arman JonesSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 25
OPP 39
+5
96.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds to the WmMry 34Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 20
OPP 34
0
96.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
96.5%
Brandon Battle sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 4 yards to the WmMry 16Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+2
96.5%
Noah Giles run for 2 yds to the WmMry 18Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+9
96.6%
Brandon Battle pass complete to Andrew Caskin for 9 yds to the WmMry 27Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
96.5%
Tommy McKee punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
97.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 10 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
97.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 26 yds to the WmMry 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
97.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the WmMry 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
97.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Daniel Hamm for no gain to the WmMry 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
97.6%
Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the WmMry 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 29
0
97.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 19TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:023% → 10%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Tommy McKee run for no gain to the WmMry 29Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+25
97.4%
Tommy McKee run for 25 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.1%
Noah Giles run for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
97.0%
Tommy McKee pass incomplete to Andrew CaskinSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+2
97.2%
Brehon Britt run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+15
97.2%
Tommy McKee run for 15 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
96.6%
Brehon Britt run for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
96.6%
Tommy McKee run for 9 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
96.6%
Brehon Britt run for 3 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
96.6%
Brehon Britt run for 1 yd to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
96.9%
Tommy McKee pass incomplete to DeVonte DedmonSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+8
97.0%
Tommy McKee run for 8 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.3%
Tommy McKee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kris Hooper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
95.0%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
94.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Jordan EllisSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+3
94.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 8
OWN 26
-7
94.6%
Lester Coleman punt for 63 yds , DeVonte Dedmon returns for a loss of 7 yards to the WmMry 4 DeVonte Dedmon fumbled, recovered by WmMry DeVonte DedmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 21INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
93.7%
Noah Giles run for 15 yds to the WmMry 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
93.6%
Tommy McKee run for 6 yds to the WmMry 25Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
Tommy McKee pass intercepted Chris Peace return for 3 yds to the WmMry 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:3396% → 99%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
96.2%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Matt Ahola and Bill Murray for a loss of 1 yard to the WmMry 26Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
96.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the WmMry 20Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+10
96.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the WmMry 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
96.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the WmMry 5Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.2%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the WmMry 3Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the WmMry 1Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
W&MDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.0%
Brehon Britt run for 1 yd to the WmMry 26Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
98.0%
Brehon Britt run for 2 yds to the WmMry 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:50
Tommy McKee run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kris Hooper KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q3 7:08
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 17 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
+4.1
SACK · Q4 4:28
Kurt Benkert sacked by Matt Ahola and Bill Murray for a loss of 1 yard to the WmMry 26
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com